...Saying The Quiet Part Out Loud...

[MikeKozlowski]

...The CINC AMC, GEN Mike Minihan, sent out a memo yesterday to all his wing commanders.






He's right. The real question here is will Big Air Force back him up?

Mike

[Micael]

He's right. The real question here is will Big Air Force back him up?

Mike

NEW: Asked about this memo from Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, a U.S. defense official says it is not representative of the Defense Department's view on China.

[Johnnie Lyle]

He probably shouldn’t have said the China part out loud.

As for upping readiness and ability to fight, yes. But he may have scored an own goal with the first paragraph, and that will get in the way.

[Pdf27]

He probably shouldn’t have said the China part out loud.

As for upping readiness and ability to fight, yes. But he may have scored an own goal with the first paragraph, and that will get in the way.

Not even China specifically - "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025" and "You need to know that I alone own the pen on these orders" are pretty problematic - closer to Jack D Ripper than a general responsible to the civilian leadership in a democracy. Phrased a bit differently, I think the same content would be pretty unproblematic.

[Johnnie Lyle]

He probably shouldn’t have said the China part out loud.

As for upping readiness and ability to fight, yes. But he may have scored an own goal with the first paragraph, and that will get in the way.

Not even China specifically - "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025" and "You need to know that I alone own the pen on these orders" are pretty problematic - closer to Jack D Ripper than a general responsible to the civilian leadership in a democracy. Phrased a bit differently, I think the same content would be pretty unproblematic.

“My gut tells me we will fight in 2025” could have easily been rephreased as “the current international situation has dramatically increased the risk of war in the near term.” Similarly, “You need to know that I alone own the pen on the orders” works as “it is my responsibility to ensure this command is ready for whatever tasks it must undertake.”

Generals are politicians, and this is one of those situations where being politic drastically increases the likelihood of success.

[Micael]

He probably shouldn’t have said the China part out loud.

As for upping readiness and ability to fight, yes. But he may have scored an own goal with the first paragraph, and that will get in the way.

Not even China specifically - "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025" and "You need to know that I alone own the pen on these orders" are pretty problematic - closer to Jack D Ripper than a general responsible to the civilian leadership in a democracy. Phrased a bit differently, I think the same content would be pretty unproblematic.

“My gut tells me we will fight in 2025” could have easily been rephreased as “the current international situation has dramatically increased the risk of war in the near term.” Similarly, “You need to know that I alone own the pen on the orders” works as “it is my responsibility to ensure this command is ready for whatever tasks it must undertake.”

Generals are politicians, and this is one of those situations where being politic drastically increases the likelihood of success.

Yeah, it can easily backfire if you’re not careful. A certain general here just had an interview drop in which she said some pretty un-diplomatic things about the Russians. Waiting to see if she can get away with it given the current situation, or not. ”It sounds harsh but it’s better to kill off the Russians in Ukraine than that they’re on our doorstep.” was one of them.

[warshipadmin]

Date is a bit curious.

[Johnnie Lyle]

Junior officers have the freedom to advocate aggressive and risky courses of action and use bellicose language - precisely because they don’t have the power to act on it (much).

Senior officers don’t have that freedom - because they can act on it, and others must act as if they will.

[Johnnie Lyle]

Date is a bit curious.

Post-dating things isn’t uncommon, though

[Luigil101]

While he can be lambasted for his insufficiently elegant speech until the cows come home, I'm more concerned about why he would hold such a pessimistic stance in the first place.
the worst I had seen previously was 2027
I'd honestly prefer the idea that he's talking out his rear, as that would be far better for all involved, but more than a few said that about Russia and were terribly wrong.

[Bob Dedmon]

I hope the rest of our military adopts this view. Supplying Ukraine with war fighting material is depleting our war stocks and retiring the F-15 (leaving Kadena to rotational assets) with no foreseeable replacement is not healthy for us or our allies in WESTPAC. Another thing I was just thinking about...all those 911 volunteers would be at 25 years time in service maximum and retirement eligible. I was an April to September retiree missing 911. we'll never out man the numbers in China, and their espionage over the years has seriously eroded our technical advantage, plus our younger generations are becoming more and more ineligible for military service for a multitude of reasons (health and criminal record being the main reasons). With things as they are in the United States I worry about our ability and resolve to protect our allies in the Pacific.

[Micael]

Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Mike McCaul reacts to Air Force four-star general predicting war with China in 2025: "I hope he's wrong as well. I think he's right though."

[Pdf27]

Generals are politicians, and this is one of those situations where being politic drastically increases the likelihood of success.

Concur. That set of orders is very MacArthuresque, in a bad way.

[Johnnie Lyle]

Generals are politicians, and this is one of those situations where being politic drastically increases the likelihood of success.

Concur. That set of orders is very MacArthuresque, in a bad way.

I’d say less MacArthuresque and more valuing public recognition he was right over achieving his goals. It’s an increasingly common failure across the board.

[Nightwatch2]

Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Mike McCaul reacts to Air Force four-star general predicting war with China in 2025: "I hope he's wrong as well. I think he's right though."

I think he’s right too.

China and Russia are both in very difficult positions. Iran and NK are also

Demographics combined with economic cratering post-pandemic puts an end state to mischief. The dictators know that they have a limited time frame to strike.

On the other side of the equation any such conflict will utterly wreck the aggressors’ militaries, economies, and countries.

Example - Russia-Ukraine

The future is a bit uncertain, or not.

The dictators also know, particularly now, just how screwed they will be

So no bets.

Back to the top - the General is absolutely right to emphasize the readiness of his forces and get everyone focused on war preparations. That is what they are all supposed to do all the time.

[Johnnie Lyle]

Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Mike McCaul reacts to Air Force four-star general predicting war with China in 2025: "I hope he's wrong as well. I think he's right though."

I think he’s right too.

China and Russia are both in very difficult positions. Iran and NK are also

Demographics combined with economic cratering post-pandemic puts an end state to mischief. The dictators know that they have a limited time frame to strike.

On the other side of the equation any such conflict will utterly wreck the aggressors’ militaries, economies, and countries.

Example - Russia-Ukraine

The future is a bit uncertain, or not.

The dictators also know, particularly now, just how screwed they will be

So no bets.

Back to the top - the General is absolutely right to emphasize the readiness of his forces and get everyone focused on war preparations. That is what they are all supposed to do all the time.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that the international situation is hunky dory or that we shouldn’t be focusing on war fighting skills.

My and pdf’s concern is that the way the general announced his training plan will distract from his ability and freedom to execute it.

[Nightwatch2]

I think he’s right too.

China and Russia are both in very difficult positions. Iran and NK are also

Demographics combined with economic cratering post-pandemic puts an end state to mischief. The dictators know that they have a limited time frame to strike.

On the other side of the equation any such conflict will utterly wreck the aggressors’ militaries, economies, and countries.

Example - Russia-Ukraine

The future is a bit uncertain, or not.

The dictators also know, particularly now, just how screwed they will be

So no bets.

Back to the top - the General is absolutely right to emphasize the readiness of his forces and get everyone focused on war preparations. That is what they are all supposed to do all the time.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that the international situation is hunky dory or that we shouldn’t be focusing on war fighting skills.

My and pdf’s concern is that the way the general announced his training plan will distract from his ability and freedom to execute it.

Well, yes.

He will be crucified by the professional hand-wringing crowd.

But his comments are clear, his initiatives are both clear and focused, and he did avoid mentioning any specific adversary.

Old war story - I have seen Generals and Flag Officers crucified for similar comments picked up in the press and “not in accordance with the Administration”

[Johnnie Lyle]

I think he’s right too.

China and Russia are both in very difficult positions. Iran and NK are also

Demographics combined with economic cratering post-pandemic puts an end state to mischief. The dictators know that they have a limited time frame to strike.

On the other side of the equation any such conflict will utterly wreck the aggressors’ militaries, economies, and countries.

Example - Russia-Ukraine

The future is a bit uncertain, or not.

The dictators also know, particularly now, just how screwed they will be

So no bets.

Back to the top - the General is absolutely right to emphasize the readiness of his forces and get everyone focused on war preparations. That is what they are all supposed to do all the time.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that the international situation is hunky dory or that we shouldn’t be focusing on war fighting skills.

My and pdf’s concern is that the way the general announced his training plan will distract from his ability and freedom to execute it.

Well, yes.

He will be crucified by the professional hand-wringing crowd.

But his comments are clear, his initiatives are both clear and focused, and he did avoid mentioning any specific adversary.

Old war story - I have seen Generals and Flag Officers crucified for similar comments picked up in the press and “not in accordance with the Administration”

Disagree that he mentioned specific adversaries.

He should have known that would be the reaction. The only acceptable reason to make those comments is if he’s specifically throwing his career away to shame the Pentagon. My concern is that it wasn’t that calculated, which shows lack of judgment.

[Pdf27]

But his comments are clear, his initiatives are both clear and focused, and he did avoid mentioning any specific adversary.

Old war story - I have seen Generals and Flag Officers crucified for similar comments picked up in the press and “not in accordance with the Administration”

1. I don't have a problem with him mentioning China as a specific adversary. Where I do have a problem is with a very senior officer ostensibly making policy on the basis of "my gut" when there are endless pieces of national policy justifying the current Pacific pivot.
2. The justification for the timings is in my view unhelpful - that's straying into the political realm when he doesn't have to. This will give the State Department a headache, when he could have achieved the same thing by saying that he wants his command prepared to go to war in 2024. If anything that would have worked better because it isn't clear to me whether he wants to be ready in 2024 or 2025.
3. "I alone own the pen on these orders" is worrying. Firstly, because it infers that there is nobody above him in the chain of command. Worse is the follow up of "these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them." suggests that there is a problem in the USAF of people only following orders when convenient. If that's genuinely the case then a whole bunch of more junior officers should be fired on the spot and this set of orders should NEVER have entered the public domain.

[Zen9]

Is this real?
We're not yet in February 2023.

Something odd about the language here that's not quite right for a senior serving officer in the US.
Certainly not like what I've encountered in the past.

More like a parody.

Taking such responsibility implies he's gambling on getting his way or making a 'meal ticket' out of being blamed for failure.

A very exposed position for someone who ought to have more political sense.

Gut feelings cut no ice in the military.