SpaceX 2024

[brovane]

Up thought February 13th SpaceX has successfully launched 12 times this year.

Hardware for Starship flight 3 is on the pad. More Starship hardware waits in the Mega-Bay.

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[Johnnie Lyle]

Now somebody has to get the lead out of their competitors.

[Rocket J Squrriel]

Eco freaks got a judge to reinstate a lawsuit against Texas & SpaceX saying that its illegal to close the beaches during launches. Bet the judge will forbid launches until a trial is done.

[jemhouston]

Now somebody has to get the lead out of their competitors.

They would be?

[Johnnie Lyle]

Now somebody has to get the lead out of their competitors.

They would be?

Most of the other rocketry companies. Blue Origin, Boeing’s Dragon, etc.

We’re heavily dependent upon Musk driving Space X hard, instead of all of them going like gangbusters.

[brovane]

Eco freaks got a judge to reinstate a lawsuit against Texas & SpaceX saying that its illegal to close the beaches during launches. Bet the judge will forbid launches until a trial is done.

If the SpaceX legal team thought there was a significant chance of this happening I would expect to see a lot more activity at 39A and not work on getting a second launch site built at Starbase.

[brovane]

Now somebody has to get the lead out of their competitors.

They would be?

Most of the other rocketry companies. Blue Origin, Boeing’s Dragon, etc.

We’re heavily dependent upon Musk driving Space X hard, instead of all of them going like gangbusters.

The only serious competition to SpaceX would be Blue Origin but they have to get to orbit first. BO is bidding to buy ULA, should be interesting to see where that goes. Blue Origin has Bezos deep pockets backing them up but they really haven't accomplished much despite all the money that Bezos has thrown at the company. Boeing Starliner should finally launch with crew in a couple of months for their demo mission. SpaceX is already planning on launching Crew-8 in March. The only other possibility is Rocket Labs and the Neutron but they still got a lot of work to do on that rocket.

[Johnnie Lyle]

They would be?

Most of the other rocketry companies. Blue Origin, Boeing’s Dragon, etc.

We’re heavily dependent upon Musk driving Space X hard, instead of all of them going like gangbusters.

The only serious competition to SpaceX would be Blue Origin but they have to get to orbit first. BO is bidding to buy ULA, should be interesting to see where that goes. Blue Origin has Bezos deep pockets backing them up but they really haven't accomplished much despite all the money that Bezos has thrown at the company. Boeing Starliner should finally launch with crew in a couple of months for their demo mission. SpaceX is already planning on launching Crew-8 in March. The only other possibility is Rocket Labs and the Neutron but they still got a lot of work to do on that rocket.

And that’s the fundamental problem - they’re way behind the curve.

[jemhouston]

Now somebody has to get the lead out of their competitors.

They would be?

Most of the other rocketry companies. Blue Origin, Boeing’s Dragon, etc.

We’re heavily dependent upon Musk driving Space X hard, instead of all of them going like gangbusters.

Problem is both named haven't left the pad so to speak.

Space X is a Paradigm Shift and until the others have one, they're stuck in the old ways of doing things.

Blue Origin might work in the end, given Boeing's recent past, I don't hold out much hope for them.

[brovane]

And that’s the fundamental problem - they’re way behind the curve.

They are and the established old space industry that spent so long criticizing SpaceX and new space that they really haven't figured out that they are quickly becoming irrelevant. I think SLS and Orion are the last of big ticket cost-plus space hardware for the US aerospace industry. Musk with SpaceX has firmly upset the apple cart and then turned around and set it on fire. Now SpaceX is dominating the commercial launch market. Rocket Labs and BO will have their work cut out for them if they want to remain relevant. I think Rocket Labs has a better chance than BO. ULA will remain relevant as long as the US defense industry needs a 2nd launch supplier. Amazon handed ULA a huge win with that massive launch contract for Project Kuiper.

[Johnnie Lyle]

And that’s the fundamental problem - they’re way behind the curve.

They are and the established old space industry that spent so long criticizing SpaceX and new space that they really haven't figured out that they are quickly becoming irrelevant. I think SLS and Orion are the last of big ticket cost-plus space hardware for the US aerospace industry. Musk with SpaceX has firmly upset the apple cart and then turned around and set it on fire. Now SpaceX is dominating the commercial launch market. Rocket Labs and BO will have their work cut out for them if they want to remain relevant. I think Rocket Labs has a better chance than BO. ULA will remain relevant as long as the US defense industry needs a 2nd launch supplier. Amazon handed ULA a huge win with that massive launch contract for Project Kuiper.

And that’s what worries me.

SpaceX is internally motivated. It’s being driven by Musk (or perhaps his own demons/ambitions), but how sustainable is that?

[brovane]

And that’s the fundamental problem - they’re way behind the curve.

They are and the established old space industry that spent so long criticizing SpaceX and new space that they really haven't figured out that they are quickly becoming irrelevant. I think SLS and Orion are the last of big ticket cost-plus space hardware for the US aerospace industry. Musk with SpaceX has firmly upset the apple cart and then turned around and set it on fire. Now SpaceX is dominating the commercial launch market. Rocket Labs and BO will have their work cut out for them if they want to remain relevant. I think Rocket Labs has a better chance than BO. ULA will remain relevant as long as the US defense industry needs a 2nd launch supplier. Amazon handed ULA a huge win with that massive launch contract for Project Kuiper.

And that’s what worries me.

SpaceX is internally motivated. It’s being driven by Musk (or perhaps his own demons/ambitions), but how sustainable is that?

It is sustainable as long as the money keeps flowing. With Starlink SpaceX has opened up a massive revenue stream for the company on top of all the other US government contracts and private commercial contracts. There is a reason that SpaceX is also called the first church of Mars. If Musk where to die today, I think SpaceX would carry on, just probably at a slower pace than Musk would have liked. There is other people at SpaceX, like Shotwell that have the same vision as Musk to make humans interplanetary. The big thing for me is since 2008, Musk has not had to put any of his own money into SpaceX. The company is funding itself either through capital raises or revenue coming in. The same cannot be said for Blue Origin.

[Rocket J Squrriel]

Eco freaks got a judge to reinstate a lawsuit against Texas & SpaceX saying that its illegal to close the beaches during launches. Bet the judge will forbid launches until a trial is done.

If the SpaceX legal team thought there was a significant chance of this happening I would expect to see a lot more activity at 39A and not work on getting a second launch site built at Starbase.

Cross fingers & eyes.

[brovane]

We are approaching Flight Test-3 for Starship. Current timing is NET-3/14 assuming launch license is received and hardware continues cooperating. Flight Termination Explosives have been installed on the LV which is usually a sign that a launch is expected soon. Mishap report into Flight Test 2 has been closed by the FAA.

LV has passed both Static Fires and wet dress rehearsals.

SpaceX is working with the Texas Parks and wildlife Commission to do a land swap of 43 acres of Boca Chica State Park and SpaceX would give them 477 acres adjacent to another nearby Wildlife Refuge. This land swap has brought out the usual crazies protesting against it.

https://www.spacex.com/updates SpaceX statement of flight test 2.

BUILDING ON THE SUCCESS OF STARSHIP’S SECOND FLIGHT TEST
The second flight test of Starship and Super Heavy achieved a number of important milestones as we continue to advance the capabilities of the most powerful launch system ever developed.

On November 18, 2023, Starship successfully lifted off at 7:02 a.m. CT from Starbase in Texas. All 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy Booster started up successfully and, for the first time, completed a full-duration burn during ascent. Starship then executed a successful hot-stage separation, the first time this technique has been done successfully with a vehicle of this size.

Following stage separation, Super Heavy initiated its boostback burn, which sends commands to 13 of the vehicle’s 33 Raptor engines to propel the rocket toward its intended landing location. During this burn, several engines began shutting down before one engine failed energetically, quickly cascading to a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD) of the booster. The vehicle breakup occurred more than three and a half minutes into the flight at an altitude of ~90 km over the Gulf of Mexico.

The most likely root cause for the booster RUD was determined to be filter blockage where liquid oxygen is supplied to the engines, leading to a loss of inlet pressure in engine oxidizer turbopumps that eventually resulted in one engine failing in a way that resulted in loss of the vehicle. SpaceX has since implemented hardware changes inside future booster oxidizer tanks to improve propellant filtration capabilities and refined operations to increase reliability.

At vehicle separation, Starship’s upper stage successfully lit all six Raptor engines and flew a normal ascent until approximately seven minutes into the flight, when a planned vent of excess liquid oxygen propellant began. Additional propellant had been loaded on the spacecraft before launch in order to gather data representative of future payload deploy missions and needed to be disposed of prior to reentry to meet required propellant mass targets at splashdown.

A leak in the aft section of the spacecraft that developed when the liquid oxygen vent was initiated resulted in a combustion event and subsequent fires that led to a loss of communication between the spacecraft’s flight computers. This resulted in a commanded shut down of all six engines prior to completion of the ascent burn, followed by the Autonomous Flight Safety System detecting a mission rule violation and activating the flight termination system, leading to vehicle breakup. The flight test’s conclusion came when the spacecraft was as at an altitude of ~150 km and a velocity of ~24,000 km/h, becoming the first Starship to reach outer space.

SpaceX has implemented hardware changes on upcoming Starship vehicles to improve leak reduction, fire protection, and refined operations associated with the propellant vent to increase reliability. The previously planned move from a hydraulic steering system for the vehicle’s Raptor engines to an entirely electric system also removes potential sources of flammability.

The water-cooled flame deflector and other pad upgrades made after Starship’s first flight test performed as expected, requiring minimal post-launch work to be ready for vehicle tests and the next integrated flight test.

Following the flight test, SpaceX led the investigation efforts with oversight from the FAA and participation from NASA, and the National Transportation Safety Board.

Upgrades derived from the flight test will debut on the next Starship and Super Heavy vehicles to launch from Starbase on Flight 3. SpaceX is also implementing planned performance upgrades, including the debut of a new electronic Thrust Vector Control system for Starship’s upper stage Raptor engines and improving the speed of propellant loading operations prior to launch.

More Starships are ready to fly, putting flight hardware in a flight environment to learn as quickly as possible. Recursive improvement is essential as we work to build a fully reusable launch system capable of carrying satellites, payloads, crew, and cargo to a variety of orbits and Earth, lunar, or Martian landing sites.

[brovane]

Launch License has been received for IFT-3. If the weather cooperates, first launch window opens tomorrow at 7am CT.

https://youtu.be/97GOcZ08tc4?si=yojnbobVmYJlxdm4

[gral]

Launch has been delayed to 0802 CDT.

[Marko Dash]

just surpassed the test 2 failure point, separation and boostback good

[gtg947h]

Successful orbital insertion. Lost the booster at landing burn (got some apparent roll oscillations going just before LOS). Now we coast for a while...

edit: and the old-school Muzak for the coast phase is golden

[Marko Dash]

i think this is the biggest single object we've put in space that isn't a conglomeration of smaller bits like the ISS.

[MikeKozlowski]

Looks like they lost Starship at almost the very end. Dammit so much.

Mike