Australia Follow-ons

[James1978]

About the RAAFs existing C-130s.

In TLWverse, would the RAAF C-130Es stick around? Or at least some of them?
I'm guessing that the six planes that were sold to a civilian owner and eventually ended up in Pakistan never leave Australia in TLWverse?

At least in @, 37 Squadron started converting from the C-130E to the C-130J in September 1999.
For a brief period in 1999-2000, 36 Squadron operated 4 C-130E while 37 Squadron was converting.

RAAF C-130E.jpg

[drmarkbailey]

I'll get to FPDA later. Time is short as I have essays to mark.

RAAF C-130E - In TLW I simply see no way where these are sold off! If nothing else, old aircrew will be recalled and they'll be running cargo runs in the continent and out into the islands, NZ etc. That liberates the new C-130 for front line operational use.

F-18. Interesting, we both came up with very similar figures in the scenario, it tends to validate thinking.. Use your figure as you have already factored it in.

SQN sizes: for small fast movers and stuff like C-47 I'm using that as a calculation number. To keep a SQN of 12 aircraft operational, you need about 20 in the system. Different for big birds like C-130, P-3, C-17 etc. Attrition is lower and utility rates higher.
So it's a calculation of '12 in the SQN + (say) 8 for attrition + cycling in maintenance and as 'available hot spares' = about 20'

We have used a thing called an 'Administrative SQN'. For example, in the RN most WWII floatplanes assigned to warships as catapult aircraft were in the same SQN, and it was enormous in numbers but scattered globally. The SQN was an admin beast only becuase everything has to belong to something and someone has to coordinate it all. In this, the RAAFAR flying SQN are semi-administrative with detached Flights - there's just no set rules on how big the flight can be. So 'XX SQN Detached Flight A' in Scherger can be as big as you need as can the other 2, and the SQN HQ can be anywhere but should normally be where one of the flights is. So that SQN might be 40 aircraft spread hither and yon with the detached flights being semi-independent, but all under the one admin system. Hope that makes sense, I don't know if US forces use something like that.

Cheers: Mark

[James1978]

I thought of a few questions. Anybody chime in.

Strait of Malacca: Does Indonesia, or the Soviets, mine this as soon as WW3 kicks off?


Butterworth AB: Once the Australia-Indonesia Cold War with shooting starts, how much of a pain is it for the RAAF to support dets. at Butterworth? They can't just hope to skirt the twelve mile limit and expect not to get shot at.

Either they fly well to the east of Sumatra, then cut across the Nicobar Islands. Or they fly over PNG => Mindanao => Sabah => Butterworth.
The F-111s seem to have the ferry range, not sure about the rest.

The Philippines: Anybody have thoughts on what, if anything, the Philippines do once Indonesia jumps into the Soviet camp? I tend to think that if the Philippines don't bother Indonesia, then Indonesia won't bother the Philippines. But if the Philippines join the coalition of the willing in TL . . .

NOTE: In TLWverse, the US still withdrew from Clark AFB and Subic Bay as in @.


Singapore: As I understand it, FPDA calls for consultations, and isn't really an automatic mutual defense pact. But having said that, why wouldn't the RSAF have reenacted Operation Focus on every Indonesian air base they could reach as soon as WW3 kicked off and Soviet Tu-22Ms hit Australia to aid Indonesia?

[drmarkbailey]

Strait of Malacca: Does Indonesia, or the Soviets, mine this as soon as WW3 kicks off?

The Indonesians won't as it would have devastating repercussions for ASEAN. The Soviets might if they want to cripple the Chinese, anger the Indians and drive ASEAN into the arms of the western powers.
It would be a strategic blunder.

Butterworth AB: Once the Australia-Indonesia Cold War with shooting starts, how much of a pain is it for the RAAF to support dets. at Butterworth? They can't just hope to skirt the twelve mile limit and expect not to get shot at.

Not going to have a choice. 1998-2001 I was the intelo at DET A as a FLTLT (remember I'm Navy-Air Force-Navy) and the reason Op Gateway was set up in 1980 was to watch the USSR's activities between the Bay of Bengal and the Luzon Strait. It's also part of the FPDA committment. Basically I suspect that the mission routeing will change for Alpha patrols (west) so that the P-3C stay entirely clear of Indon airspace. Bravo patrols (SCS) won't change as they just headed out over the peninsula.

Either they fly well to the east of Sumatra, then cut across the Nicobar Islands. Or they fly over PNG => Mindanao => Sabah => Butterworth.
The F-111s seem to have the ferry range, not sure about the rest.

Agreed

The Philippines: Anybody have thoughts on what, if anything, the Philippines do once Indonesia jumps into the Soviet camp? I tend to think that if the Philippines don't bother Indonesia, then Indonesia won't bother the Philippines. But if the Philippines join the coalition of the willing in TL . . .

NOTE: In TLWverse, the US still withdrew from Clark AFB and Subic Bay as in @.

Well, they don't jump into the Soviet camp in the sense of alliance, the Junta has a massive and variable Soviet influence within it. ASEAN will be desperate to counter Soviet influence - and then the PRC will stick their oar into the bowl. Not a spoon, an oar. That will be the real disruptor. I think that the behind the scenes pressure would be immense and applied across the spectrum, from ministerial meetings to individual contacts. Officially, I think they'll ignore it all to maintain superficial calm.

Singapore: As I understand it, FPDA calls for consultations, and isn't really an automatic mutual defense pact. But having said that, why wouldn't the RSAF have reenacted Operation Focus on every Indonesian air base they could reach as soon as WW3 kicked off and Soviet Tu-22Ms hit Australia to aid Indonesia?

I think that Malaysia and Singapore will quietly freak out, and consolidate FPDA rapidly and very solidly. They will put the FPDA into full effect, remember that it is a defensive alliance.

I do not think they will do an Op Focus. That's a step too fast and too far within the ASEAN political structure. But expect every support for the allies short of kinetics. Oh, and any Soviet combat aircraft approaching the FPDA ADIZ will be shot down.

Oh, and the entire RSAF will fly back to Singapore from the USA and elsewhere. That will force them to activate the highway strips and, if they and the Malaysians and Singaporeans REALLY want to make a powerful statement to every man and his dog, a FLT or SQN of RSAF fighters based at Butterworth will do exactly that.

Cheers: Mark

[James1978]

Strait of Malacca: Does Indonesia, or the Soviets, mine this as soon as WW3 kicks off?

The Indonesians won't as it would have devastating repercussions for ASEAN. The Soviets might if they want to cripple the Chinese, anger the Indians and drive ASEAN into the arms of the western powers.
It would be a strategic blunder.

So as you see it, the Indonesians are just in a pissing contest with Australia over TL, but are generally good with everyone else in the region?

Once WW3 kicks off and Indonesia has thrown in its lot with the USSR, how much do they still care about ASEAN? Or put another way, do what degree to they buy Soviet assurances of a short war ending in a Soviet victory where Indonesia is on the winning side?

Butterworth AB: Once the Australia-Indonesia Cold War with shooting starts, how much of a pain is it for the RAAF to support dets. at Butterworth? They can't just hope to skirt the twelve mile limit and expect not to get shot at.

Not going to have a choice. 1998-2001 I was the intelo at DET A as a FLTLT (remember I'm Navy-Air Force-Navy) and the reason Op Gateway was set up in 1980 was to watch the USSR's activities between the Bay of Bengal and the Luzon Strait. It's also part of the FPDA committment. Basically I suspect that the mission routeing will change for Alpha patrols (west) so that the P-3C stay entirely clear of Indon airspace. Bravo patrols (SCS) won't change as they just headed out over the peninsula.

So by 1999-2000ish, the non-exercise Australian presence at Butterworth is just an MPA det? And the Malaysians get told to find the damn money to defend their own airspace?

The Philippines: Anybody have thoughts on what, if anything, the Philippines do once Indonesia jumps into the Soviet camp? I tend to think that if the Philippines don't bother Indonesia, then Indonesia won't bother the Philippines. But if the Philippines join the coalition of the willing in TL . . .

NOTE: In TLWverse, the US still withdrew from Clark AFB and Subic Bay as in @.

Well, they don't jump into the Soviet camp in the sense of alliance, the Junta has a massive and variable Soviet influence within it. ASEAN will be desperate to counter Soviet influence - and then the PRC will stick their oar into the bowl. Not a spoon, an oar. That will be the real disruptor. I think that the behind the scenes pressure would be immense and applied across the spectrum, from ministerial meetings to individual contacts. Officially, I think they'll ignore it all to maintain superficial calm.

I guess I'm asking what kind of military response the Philippines might have. Are we looking at "Please Uncle Sugar, give us some F-16s". or something more?

Singapore: As I understand it, FPDA calls for consultations, and isn't really an automatic mutual defense pact. But having said that, why wouldn't the RSAF have reenacted Operation Focus on every Indonesian air base they could reach as soon as WW3 kicked off and Soviet Tu-22Ms hit Australia to aid Indonesia?

I think that Malaysia and Singapore will quietly freak out, and consolidate FPDA rapidly and very solidly. They will put the FPDA into full effect, remember that it is a defensive alliance.

I do not think they will do an Op Focus. That's a step too fast and too far within the ASEAN political structure. But expect every support for the allies short of kinetics. Oh, and any Soviet combat aircraft approaching the FPDA ADIZ will be shot down.

Oh, and the entire RSAF will fly back to Singapore from the USA and elsewhere. That will force them to activate the highway strips and, if they and the Malaysians and Singaporeans REALLY want to make a powerful statement to every man and his dog, a FLT or SQN of RSAF fighters based at Butterworth will do exactly that.

Can you expand on the operating within the ASEAN political structure part?

From where I'm sitting, the RSAF has the numbers and the proximity to put the hurt on Indonesia in a way the RAAF can only dream of. And after 4-5 years of Indonesia being local ass holes engaged in a warm cold war with their only local ally (Australia) with any ability to put real hurt on Indonesia, does Singapore take the risk of the Indonesians/Soviets getting in the first blow against Singapore? Though I suppose that analysis depends on what surprises intel says the Soviets might have in Indonesia.

I expect that as soon as NATO started its formal mobilization, every RASF unit in the US at least headed home. Sending assets to Butterworth makes sense from a dispersal standpoint.

[drmarkbailey]

Hi James

ASEAN

It's complicated, and ASEAN is very complicated. IT IS NOT COMPARABLE TO EUROPEAN TYPE ORGANISATIONS. It's not a multilateral organisation (although it has multilateral outcomes). It's better thought of as a web of bilateral arrangements made within a multilateral-adjacent system where confrontation is assiduously avoided - and there's lots of regional cultural reasons for that. So what will be happening here is the individual countries will be making their own approaches in camera, reinforced by a dense web of important individuals in the same countries talking to their peers and networks in Indonesia to reinforce the same general message 'guys calm down and cut it out - and what the hell are you doing encouraging the Russians because that will encourage the Chinese to come and stick their oar in as well...'

This is why the stuff I've written about Konfrontasi Dua is 'on-again-off-again', resembling Konfrontasi Satu back in the 60s.

Indonesia will absolutely not want to damage ASEAN.

BUTTERWORTH

Yes. The 30-year permanent presence of RAAF fighter units based at Butterworth, Malaysia, ended in 1988. After that, the Australian presence comprised a detachment of P-3C Orions, an Army rifle company (changed over at three-month intervals), and regular rotational detachments of F/A-18 Hornets sent from Australia. When I was there, (late 1998-early 2001) 5 SQN RMAF was flying F-5's, 18 SQN was ramping up the RMAF F/A-18D force - 8 acquired- (plus helo SQN etc) and 15 SQN was starting to get Hawks. They had real issues with the support for F/A-18D.

They might have bought additional F/A-18D in TLW, maybe another four birds?

29 SQN in Kuantan was flying the MiG-29, which was not well regarded in the RMAF, it was a political buy.

PHILIPPINES

They won't be worried at all by Indonesia. They will be very worried about the USSR. They were fighting hard in Mindanao from the late 90s and simply had too few resources. It was so bad that the F-5 left service in 2005 without replacement at all.
The Mindanao War was fought between the PI and two major armed groups, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). It's raging at full power in 2005 and it's the dirtiest of wars due to a toxic stew of ethnic/communal violence, religious violence and bestial mohammedan atrocity.

Want to help the PI? Help with COIN. Priorities would be:
- every OV-10 Bronco you can find (they are still in service today in the PAF)
- Cobra gunships

Fighters - they went for FA-50s (12) in 2012 (6 1/2 ton empty). They need a light fighter in 2004-2004 and that's not really a F-16 (8 1/2 ton), it's a big, heavy fighter by PI standards. Is there a light supersonic fighter available? If there isn't, supporting their F-5 force temporarily while coming up with something might work. Is there a modernised F-5 option?

Whatever the light fighter solution is, the PAF was at a low ebb in 2004-2005. SO baby steps I guess.

Cheers: Mark

[James1978]

ASEAN

It's complicated, and ASEAN is very complicated. IT IS NOT COMPARABLE TO EUROPEAN TYPE ORGANISATIONS. It's not a multilateral organisation (although it has multilateral outcomes). It's better thought of as a web of bilateral arrangements made within a multilateral-adjacent system where confrontation is assiduously avoided - and there's lots of regional cultural reasons for that. So what will be happening here is the individual countries will be making their own approaches in camera, reinforced by a dense web of important individuals in the same countries talking to their peers and networks in Indonesia to reinforce the same general message 'guys calm down and cut it out - and what the hell are you doing encouraging the Russians because that will encourage the Chinese to come and stick their oar in as well...'

This is why the stuff I've written about Konfrontasi Dua is 'on-again-off-again', resembling Konfrontasi Satu back in the 60s.

Indonesia will absolutely not want to damage ASEAN.

I get that, up until April 2005.

But once WW3 kicks off and Cam Ranh Bay based Backfires are staging through Indonesia to attack Australia, and to outward appearances Indonesia has joined WW3 on the Soviet side, I could use more explanation of why Singapore would keep trying to back channel things instead of reenacting Operation Focus to nip this in the bud.

BUTTERWORTH

Yes. The 30-year permanent presence of RAAF fighter units based at Butterworth, Malaysia, ended in 1988. After that, the Australian presence comprised a detachment of P-3C Orions, an Army rifle company (changed over at three-month intervals), and regular rotational detachments of F/A-18 Hornets sent from Australia. When I was there, (late 1998-early 2001) 5 SQN RMAF was flying F-5's, 18 SQN was ramping up the RMAF F/A-18D force - 8 acquired- (plus helo SQN etc) and 15 SQN was starting to get Hawks. They had real issues with the support for F/A-18D.

They might have bought additional F/A-18D in TLW, maybe another four birds?

29 SQN in Kuantan was flying the MiG-29, which was not well regarded in the RMAF, it was a political buy.

In TLWverse, Malaysia bought F/A-18Cs instead of MiG-29s.

I should check if I ever reposted the Malaysian orbats.

PHILIPPINES

They won't be worried at all by Indonesia. They will be very worried about the USSR. They were fighting hard in Mindanao from the late 90s and simply had too few resources. It was so bad that the F-5 left service in 2005 without replacement at all.
The Mindanao War was fought between the PI and two major armed groups, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). It's raging at full power in 2005 and it's the dirtiest of wars due to a toxic stew of ethnic/communal violence, religious violence and bestial mohammedan atrocity.

Want to help the PI? Help with COIN. Priorities would be:
- every OV-10 Bronco you can find (they are still in service today in the PAF)
- Cobra gunships

Fighters - they went for FA-50s (12) in 2012 (6 1/2 ton empty). They need a light fighter in 2004-2004 and that's not really a F-16 (8 1/2 ton), it's a big, heavy fighter by PI standards. Is there a light supersonic fighter available? If there isn't, supporting their F-5 force temporarily while coming up with something might work. Is there a modernised F-5 option?

Whatever the light fighter solution is, the PAF was at a low ebb in 2004-2005. SO baby steps I guess.

More OV-10s shouldn't be a problem, nor should ex-US Army AH-1s.

I'm not sure there is a light fighter out there. I mean Gripen is out there, but Uncle Sugar isn't paying for those. The T-50 is out there, but I don't think F/A-50 happened yet. Hawks? Everyone else is buying them.

But I imagine there are a lot of F-5s floating around on the second/third hand market. Singapore ran a domestic F-5 upgrade, though I think a lot of the tech was Israeli. They ended up with a rather capable bird as I understand it.

I've seen indications that around @ 1996, the Philippines were in the market for 18 new fighters in a five-year defense plan - probably used US F-16s. Something about exercising sovereignty over the Spratly Islands. Seems the US offered 26 F-16A/B, but the @ Asian financial crisis put a stop to the whole thing. But with an ongoing Cold War, and Indonesia being jerks . . . Uncle Sugar might cut a better deal, or outright gift them.

[Bernard Woolley]

I don't think that the Malayan orbat was ever posted, James.

On the Philipino F-5s, I understand that in @ they were retired in 2005. Some of the aircraft they had were second hand. Therefoe, it is possible that their F-5s could still be around in TLW. Begs the question on whether an F-5 upgrade would be more cost-effective than second-hand F-16A/B.

On another unrelated matter, and perhaps one that falls into Mark's expertise on maritime trade, convoys etc. I was reminded of the fact that the war may well also disrupt the trade of illicit items. No 'tourists' trying to smuggle narcotics, tobacco etc, for example. With maritime trade disrupted by the introduction of convoys and diversion of a lot of ships to wartime tasks, it's also going to be harder to smuggle drugs. Moreover, port security in a lot of places is going to even tighter than it is in peacetime. Now, I'm sure that OCGs will find ways to move their product around, but I think that there will be periods of 'famine' followed by limited suppies coming in, with the ocasional 'feast'. Might make for 'interesting' times domestically as both lower level suppliers and addicts find their product drying up.

[James1978]

I don't think that the Malayan orbat was ever posted, James.

I think the air force one is the only one ever posted. I've since done the navy, and the army is like 95%. Though finishing the army one requires some high level (Bernard) answers.

Once things between Indonesia and Australia go to hell in 1999, just how does Malaysia respond? We've got Singapore going on an arms buying binge, but they have the money to do it. From prior conversations with Mark, Malaysia doesn't have the money to embark on a crash arms buying binge and force structure increase.

In the Malaysian AF ORBAT, we've got them buying a squadron of Rafale Bs instead of the historic Su-30MKMs, and sliding things to the left a few years.
Now in @, Malaysia started to increase their army strength in Borneo in 2014-15, and then formed 5th Division in @ 2019. So does Malaysia get spooked enough to slide that over a decade to the left? Or is/was Indonesia being scrupulous in its relations with Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines? Scrupulous enough that most of the region just sees an isolated conflict between Indonesia and Australia that doesn't much affect them?

On the Philipino F-5s, I understand that in @ they were retired in 2005. Some of the aircraft they had were second hand. Therefoe, it is possible that their F-5s could still be around in TLW. Begs the question on whether an F-5 upgrade would be more cost-effective than second-hand F-16A/B.

The Philippines AF was flying F-5A/Bs. I'm not sure how much capability you can wring out of an F-5A that date to 1966, even with upgrades.

Now apparently in @, they were looking to buy some ex-ROK F-5E/Fs. Great plan. Problem being they were hoping to at least partially pay for them by selling their F-8s. There were no takers for the F-8s. Later on, they may have looked at ex-Belgian Mirage Vs and ex-Israeli Kifirs.

So if the money can be found, second-hand F-5E/Fs seem reasonable. Ditto for Kfirs.
Or does something happen in TLWverse that makes the US decide that the Philippines really needs F-16s? Something like the TLWverse version of the @'s 1994-95 Mischief Reef dispute, but maybe with a bolder PRC?

[drmarkbailey]

Once things between Indonesia and Australia go to hell in 1999, just how does Malaysia respond? We've got Singapore going on an arms buying binge, but they have the money to do it. From prior conversations with Mark, Malaysia doesn't have the money to embark on a crash arms buying binge and force structure increase.

Oho, that's an interesting question!
Stage 1 will be paralysis, the 'WTH do we do about this?'
They are formal military allies with Australia. They are cultural and economic allies (in the sense of coherence) with Indonesia and have excellent relations. These are at all levels. The main driver will be to contain this and build bridges.
Stage 2 will be a quiet sense of panic, and they will take this quietly to ASEAN to hammer out a coherent approach and policy, with the intent of containing this. They will talk this to death for a long while to isolate and define commonalities and identify where the rogue (again in the sense of coherence) issues, policies and individuals are. These they will try to isolate. Again, they will try to build bridges.
Stage 3 will actually start before Stage 1. This is 'insurance' in the form of 'what are the military options?' But not until somewhere in Stage 2 will they implement Stage 3 in the form of actually committing money.

Stage 3 drivers
What is the timeline of the Soviets emplacing their personnel, equipment and such in Indonesia.
What is the timeline of the Indonesians placing orders to purchase Soviet equipment and training?
This is going to define a lot of the timeline for the Malaysian-Singaporean FPDA response. Remember that it has to be coordinated with AUSUKNZ.

In the Malaysian AF ORBAT, we've got them buying a squadron of Rafale Bs instead of the historic Su-30MKMs, and sliding things to the left a few years.

OK, makes sense.

Now in @, Malaysia started to increase their army strength in Borneo in 2014-15, and then formed 5th Division in @ 2019. So does Malaysia get spooked enough to slide that over a decade to the left?

That makes sense because it can be portrayed as defensive, not offensive.

Or is/was Indonesia being scrupulous in its relations with Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines? Scrupulous enough that most of the region just sees an isolated conflict between Indonesia and Australia that doesn't much affect them?

This is the ideal ASEAN solution they will be aiming for, they'll all be pressuring Indonesia on those lines. An ideal solution is not going to eventuate of course, the question is how close will they get to it.

The Philippines AF was flying F-5A/Bs. I'm not sure how much capability you can wring out of an F-5A that date to 1966, even with upgrades.

I think that's actually a secondary consideration! The first response has to be to maintain some level of basic capability and the F-5 is really the only possible INITIAL response to capitalise on and preserve the current capability.

Now apparently in @, they were looking to buy some ex-ROK F-5E/Fs. Great plan. Problem being they were hoping to at least partially pay for them by selling their F-8s. There were no takers for the F-8s. Later on, they may have looked at ex-Belgian Mirage Vs and ex-Israeli Kifirs.

So if the money can be found, second-hand F-5E/Fs seem reasonable. Ditto for Kfirs.

OK, the USA will understand all of this and suddenly the PI actually needs some kind if capability. Seoul will understand this as well.
May I suggest that a PI-US-KS deal be worked out (bearing in mind that everyone knows Manila is working in everyone's regional and international interests in fighting MILF and MNLF because yes, they are a common foe of everyone.

So may I suggest that the deal would be to build up to 2 F-5 SQN. One ex-ROKAF F-5E/F SQN specialised in air to air, and one of twin-seat KF-5F (Jegong-Ho) trainer/light strike fighters specialised in training and light strike.

I'd suggest 2001-2004 for this phase. I'd suggest that this becomes a PI-US-KS-JA project by the end. Then I'd look very carefully at where to go from 2003.

I'd suggest that in TLW-verse, the approach might be more regionally focussed. I'd further suggest that the PAF upgrade program might be based on new-build Mitsubishi F-2A as that program is ongoing at this stage. The Filipino's have their pride and while they'd very much like new-build aircraft and no they cannot afford them. So I'd propose a US-JA funding assistance package for 12 F-2A (F-2A is 60:40 JA:US). The strategic implications and regional implications are profound and would be very stabilising, while ticking off the USSR and PRC.

The F-5E/F - KF-5F deal would stop the rot and maintain a baseline supersonic fighter capability on which to build. And regionally these are a perfectly acceptable fighter.

Or does something happen in TLWverse that makes the US decide that the Philippines really needs F-16s? Something like the TLWverse version of the @'s 1994-95 Mischief Reef dispute, but maybe with a bolder PRC?

Absolutely. The PRC is underdone in TLW and their OTL behaviour would mirror what happens in TLW, it might well be supercharged. Hence my suggestion of a PI-KS-JA-US coalition deal to address this and pass the right strategic signal to Peking.

CHeers: Mark

[clancyphile]

Perhaps Japan could also provide some second-hand F-1s to the Philippines as well, giving them a rudimentary maritime strike capability?

[Belushi TD]

Maybe the US could "purchase" the F-8's from the phillipines as part of the deal. The F-8s go to AMARC, and the rest of the deal happens as outlined?

Belushi TD

[James1978]

The Philippines AF was flying F-5A/Bs. I'm not sure how much capability you can wring out of an F-5A that date to 1966, even with upgrades.

I think that's actually a secondary consideration! The first response has to be to maintain some level of basic capability and the F-5 is really the only possible INITIAL response to capitalise on and preserve the current capability.

I don't disagree. I'm just saying F-5As aren't going to be a viable solution into TLWverse 2005ish .

Now apparently in @, they were looking to buy some ex-ROK F-5E/Fs. Great plan. Problem being they were hoping to at least partially pay for them by selling their F-8s. There were no takers for the F-8s. Later on, they may have looked at ex-Belgian Mirage Vs and ex-Israeli Kifirs.

So if the money can be found, second-hand F-5E/Fs seem reasonable. Ditto for Kfirs.

OK, the USA will understand all of this and suddenly the PI actually needs some kind if capability. Seoul will understand this as well.
May I suggest that a PI-US-KS deal be worked out (bearing in mind that everyone knows Manila is working in everyone's regional and international interests in fighting MILF and MNLF because yes, they are a common foe of everyone.

So may I suggest that the deal would be to build up to 2 F-5 SQN. One ex-ROKAF F-5E/F SQN specialised in air to air, and one of twin-seat KF-5F (Jegong-Ho) trainer/light strike fighters specialised in training and light strike.

I haven't run the numbers, but there ought to be enough ROK air frames to do that.

Although apparently in @, the deal was set to proceed and everything was on track. Then the Philippines recognized North Korea (because reasons) and South Korea took exception and the deal fell apart.

I'd suggest 2001-2004 for this phase. I'd suggest that this becomes a PI-US-KS-JA project by the end. Then I'd look very carefully at where to go from 2003.

I'd suggest that in TLW-verse, the approach might be more regionally focussed. I'd further suggest that the PAF upgrade program might be based on new-build Mitsubishi F-2A as that program is ongoing at this stage. The Filipino's have their pride and while they'd very much like new-build aircraft and no they cannot afford them. So I'd propose a US-JA funding assistance package for 12 F-2A (F-2A is 60:40 JA:US). The strategic implications and regional implications are profound and would be very stabilising, while ticking off the USSR and PRC.

The F-5E/F - KF-5F deal would stop the rot and maintain a baseline supersonic fighter capability on which to build. And regionally these are a perfectly acceptable fighter.

I'm going to disagree on the F-2s for the Philippines. At least in @, for a time the F-2 was runner up to the B-2 for most expensive military aircraft in the world. The history of the F-2 is a whole discussion on its own. But the F-2 is in no way an affordable solution. It's also very bespoke to maintain. It might look like an F-16s, but it is very much not an F-16s.

But ex-USAF F-16s are affordable (possibly FREE), and used F/A-18Cs might be available.

Or does something happen in TLWverse that makes the US decide that the Philippines really needs F-16s? Something like the TLWverse version of the @'s 1994-95 Mischief Reef dispute, but maybe with a bolder PRC?

Absolutely. The PRC is underdone in TLW and their OTL behaviour would mirror what happens in TLW, it might well be supercharged. Hence my suggestion of a PI-KS-JA-US coalition deal to address this and pass the right strategic signal to Peking.

I was playing in Google Earth earlier with range rings for Su-27s out of Hainan and Cam Ranh Bay. If Australia thinks F/A-18A+ level aircraft are insufficient against Su-27s, then F-5s are meat on the table.

Perhaps Japan could also provide some second-hand F-1s to the Philippines as well, giving them a rudimentary maritime strike capability?

That's worth looking at. In @, the last F-1 was withdrawn in March 2006, and that's the schedule in TLWverse.

As I understand it, the F-1s were built with a 3,500 hour air frame life, and some were SLEPed to 4,000 hours due to delays in the F-2 program. But if Japan was operating with a more stringent definition of "worn out" and those F-1s still have some life, then that's worth a look.

Maybe the US could "purchase" the F-8's from the phillipines as part of the deal. The F-8s go to AMARC, and the rest of the deal happens as outlined.

I think in @ the Philippines were hoping someone would pay the "we want to fly them" price. I'm not sure the US would do that. But I guess I can see the US paying better than scrap value to make a deal happen and pull the Philippines back into a closer orbit. Probably worth having a larger discussion about US-Philippines relations as the 1990s went on in TLWverse.

[drmarkbailey]

Agree overall. I fully recognise that the F-5A is not an option by 2005. The important thing is to get to 2005 with any kind of PAF capability at all. In TLW-verse, Them arriving at 2005 with a basic capability based as described and a project for F-16 (or even a few actually in-country) would be streets ahead of where they were in OTL.

Cheers: Mark