Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

The theory and practice of the Profession of Arms through the ages.
Craiglxviii
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Craiglxviii »

MikeKozlowski wrote: Tue Apr 29, 2025 8:19 pm
Craiglxviii wrote: Tue Apr 29, 2025 5:04 pm
MikeKozlowski wrote: Mon Apr 21, 2025 2:27 pm

...Code name Project PURDEY.

Mike
I found it!!

IMG_4831.jpeg

Here we go. Project HELMET, a 9.45” gun firing 500lb shotgun rounds out to 200,000’ for an intercept 30-35 miles downrange.

YES, Gerald Bull was involved.
Craig,

I can believe Bull was part of that. But six rounds a minute? Seems like it would need to be a lot faster than that.

Mike
Per gun. With 100 guns per mile of ffrontage covered, or one gun every 50 feet. Put another way that’s 134 tons of ammunition per minute, per mile going up.

And the ammunition was explosive buckshot…
Simon Darkshade
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Simon Darkshade »

Is that from one of the British Secret Projects books? I remember that page.
Craiglxviii
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Craiglxviii »

Simon Darkshade wrote: Wed Apr 30, 2025 4:59 am Is that from one of the British Secret Projects books? I remember that page.
It’s from “Battle Flight”.
Simon Darkshade
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Simon Darkshade »

Ah yes, the one Chris Gibson book I never bought, and looking at the price, I nearly got the vapours.
Bouncy70
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Bouncy70 »

MikeKozlowski wrote: Thu Apr 24, 2025 7:18 pm
Poohbah wrote: Thu Apr 24, 2025 2:46 am I've got a perfect decoy. It weighs the same as an RV, has the same ballistic coefficient, and it generates nuclear yield at end of flight.
Poohbah,

...That's so crazy, it might just WORK!

Mike
As I remember, this was the conclusion of one of Stuart's discussions on the subject. A really realistic decoy will be so similar in size and weight to a live warhead that you might as well just replace it with one.
Craiglxviii
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Craiglxviii »

Simon Darkshade wrote: Wed Apr 30, 2025 11:23 am Ah yes, the one Chris Gibson book I never bought, and looking at the price, I nearly got the vapours.
I think I paid £12.99 for my brand-new copy..!!!

It does have some cool stuff in it. ABM-missile-launching semi autonomous high altitude drones, anyone?
Nightwatch2
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Nightwatch2 »

Craiglxviii wrote: Wed Apr 30, 2025 9:04 pm
Simon Darkshade wrote: Wed Apr 30, 2025 11:23 am Ah yes, the one Chris Gibson book I never bought, and looking at the price, I nearly got the vapours.
I think I paid £12.99 for my brand-new copy..!!!

It does have some cool stuff in it. ABM-missile-launching semi autonomous high altitude drones, anyone?
That would be useful these days!
Poohbah
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Poohbah »

Bouncy70 wrote: Wed Apr 30, 2025 6:57 pm
MikeKozlowski wrote: Thu Apr 24, 2025 7:18 pm
Poohbah wrote: Thu Apr 24, 2025 2:46 am I've got a perfect decoy. It weighs the same as an RV, has the same ballistic coefficient, and it generates nuclear yield at end of flight.
Poohbah,

...That's so crazy, it might just WORK!

Mike
As I remember, this was the conclusion of one of Stuart's discussions on the subject. A really realistic decoy will be so similar in size and weight to a live warhead that you might as well just replace it with one.
That's the joke.
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

From Minuteman by Stumpf:
The CEP estimates approved by the JCS for use in SIOP Revision G, 1 January through 30 June 1970, for Minuteman IB with the Mark 11 and Minuteman II with the Mark 11C were 1.6 and 1 nm, respectively. The CEP estimates for Minuteman III’s first, second, and third Mark 12 reentry vehicles were 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 nm, respectively, within that ellipse.
Also, Stumpf pointed out that the missile cradle in the silo for Minuteman I could damp out I believe vertical motions from a nearby NUDET within seconds; but the horizontal motions would take several minutes (possibly 5 min or more) to be damped by the cradle.

EDIT:
Prior to 1970, the estimated accuracy of some target locations in the Soviet Union was at best 2 to 3 miles and at worst as much as 30 miles. At the onset of Project 117L, also known as CORONA, in 1955, the Air Force ACIC was the center for reduction of geodetic and cartographic information related to photographic imagery. The interpretation of the CORONA imagery for ICBM targeting purposes was called Project SHOE LACE, which ran from 1958 to 1967 and under the name SENTINEL LACE through 1972. The goal of Project SHOE LACE was to reduce targeting error due to location error to a circular error (CE) of 1,000 feet with 90% probability by 1970.

According to William C. Mahoney, Project SHOE LACE's leader, by 1965 the team was certain that a CE of 450 feet in position, with 90 percent probability and a linear error of 300 feet in elevation with 90 percent probability had been obtained.
Note that this is a mapping error, not a guidance error.
kdahm
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by kdahm »

I'd be very careful about using those numbers for anything but casual comparisons. I don't have the reference because of the Board moves over the years, but Stuart has heavily implied, if not outright said, that all of the publicly available numbers for CEP on US systems were a bunch of hokum. The actual ones were heavily, heavily classified, and anyone who did have access to them wasn't talking*.

That's not to say that they can't be used, but should be taken with a large grain of salt.

*Since nukes aren't implemented on War Thunder yet, nobody's gone and published classified documents about it to show they were right in an internet discussion. :)
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

kdahm wrote: Fri May 02, 2025 3:37 pm I'd be very careful about using those numbers for anything but casual comparisons.
The source that Stumpf cited for MM3 CEP (and MM2) etc was:

"History of the Strategic Air Command, FY1970" Volume II - Narrative, Redacted Copy, DNSA, NT00923 pp. 274-275.

Snippets of this study are online, indicating that the full classification of it was TOP SECRET. Unfortunately, I don't have access to the Digital National Security Archive anymore (U of MD had subscription; I now live 3000 miles from them)
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

kdahm wrote: Fri May 02, 2025 3:37 pmStuart has heavily implied, if not outright said, that all of the publicly available numbers for CEP on US systems were a bunch of hokum. The actual ones were heavily, heavily classified, and anyone who did have access to them wasn't talking.
I can't help but wonder how much of Stu's POV/worldview was colored by the analytical debates of the 1960s-1970s-1980s when he was seriously in the business (or exposed to those who had been in the business back then), before he left in the early 90s for Forecast International.

Back then, Arms Controllers could pretty much make up statements unsourced, and they would be passed on as valid statements; as nobody was willing to pull 'Fruit of the Poisoned Tree' on the Arms Controllers; not without leaking actual classified information.

Case in point; Scott Sagan and his "The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons" c.1993. David Stumpf in MINUTEMAN actually refers to Sagan's book; and says that when one studies the actual, declassified histories of Strategic Air Command written for the Cuban Missile Crisis -- one comes away with a totally different view than Sagan's.

Hard as it may be to believe, we're now 50~ years from the 1970s -- back in the 1990s, it was "only" thirty years since the Cuban Crisis and all the silliness of the 1960s; so a lot of stuff was still [REDACTED BLANK - 50 PAGES OF BLACK INK] silliness.
kdahm
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by kdahm »

All of that is very true. I don't know has been declassified in the last 25 years, and I don't know what was actually classified before then. I mostly just wanted to point out the hazards in relying on open secondary sources for these highly classified areas. As would happen if someone were to rely on Sagan's book. Or Jane's Frightening Slips of WWI, when discussing those battleships.

Call it a cautionary note that I wasn't sure if it were needed for other readers of the thread.
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

BTW, I love it when censors screw up and allow me to recover totally obliterated data with some precision by scaling off said graph.
WSEG-50_Reconstructed.png
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

kdahm wrote: Fri May 02, 2025 8:41 pm All of that is very true. I don't know has been declassified in the last 25 years, and I don't know what was actually classified before then.
Even wikipedia has declassified info now; namely a 30 July 1963 JCS briefing, with some interesting slides
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

The primary land-based bomber weapons for the 1960s were, per Chuck Hansen's SWORDS OF ARMAGEDDON -- This had to be done to figure out the megatonnage deliverable by bombers to enable cost/efficiency calculations.

RAF/US Canberras
1700~ Mark 7 Fission (1952-1967) (8/19/22/30/31/61 KT, 1600 lbs)

B-58A
MB-1C Pod (Mk 39 Y1 - 3.8 MT)
or
BLU-2/B Pod (Mk 53 - 9 MT)

B-66B:
140~ Mk 5 Fission (1952-1963) (6/16/55/60/100/120 KT, 3100~ lbs)
4500~ Mk/B28 (1958-1991) (1~ MT; 2350 lbs)

B-47/B-52 Fleet

Known bomb bay configurations are:

B-47A: 26 ft [7.92m] long bomb bay about 1.4m wide
B-47B/E: 15 ft [4.572m] lonb bomb bay about 1.4m wide
B-52: 28 ft [8.53m] long bomb bay about 1.8m wide

The massive length of the original B-47A and B-52 bomb bay(s) were due to the concept at the time (1940s) that the high yield nuclear weapons of the future would be T14 Grand Slam (22,000 lb) size in length.

In comparison the way of the future:

B-70: 14 ft [4.267m] long bomb bay(s) (2 of them)
B-1: 15 ft [4.572m] long bomb bay(s) (3 of them)

I've organized the weapons that the B-47/B-52s could use by weapon class; to make things easier to understand:

Class D - 2000~ lb weapons (2 or 4 per 15 ft)
4500~ Mk/B28 (1958-1991) (1~ MT; 2350 lbs)
2000~ Mk/B43 (1961-1991) (1~ MT; 2100 lbs)

Class C - 7000~ lb weapons (1 per 15 ft)
1200~ Mk 15 (1955-1965) (3.8 MT; 7600 lbs)
700~ Mk 39 (1957-1966) (3.8 MT; 6600~ lbs)

NOTE: Internet information stating the B-47 could carry two Mk 15s is wrong. The bomb itself is 3.6m long (B-47 bomb bay is only 4.5m long), and per this image; it's impossible to carry a pair of Mk 15s "side by side".
B47_Weapons.png
The B-52 could carry two Mk 15s; but this took up almost the entire bomb bay in length.

This is backed up by actual in-flight accidents if you study them:

* B-52s crashed twice in 1961 carrying a pair of Mk 39s in each case.

* The 1958 Tybee Island incident involving a B-47 involved a single Mk 15.

* In 1957 a B-47 crashed on takeoff with a single Mk 15 on board.

Class B - 15000~ lb weapons (1 per 15 ft)
920~ Mk 36 (1956-1961) (10 MT; 17500 lbs)
500~ Mk 41 (1960-1963) (20-25 MT; 10670 lb) [Kept in reserve 1976]
340~ Mk 53 (1962-1986) (9 MT; 8850 lb) [Kept in reserve 1988-1997]

External
GAM-77/AGM-28 HOUND DOG (1960-1977) (1.2~ MT; 10,147 lb each; abt 24 klb for 2 + pylons).
GAM-87/AGM-48 SKYBOLT (1960s?) (1~ MT; 11,000 lb each; abt 46-47 klb for 4 + pylons).

Combinations

Because of the 'double length' of the B-52's bomb bay compared to the B-47, it was popular for the B-52 to carry a mixed bomb load:
Mk36-Mk15_B52.png
A high yield Class B (Mk 36) weapon, backed up by a smaller Class C (Mk 15) weapon for about 25,000 lbs of payload.

B-70:

At the time, they were studying the Mk 41 and Mk 53, but around 1960 they found that existing Class B weapons could not be carried in the B-70 bomb bay due to heat; an entirely new weapon would need to be designed to resist the high heat soak rate.
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David Newton
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by David Newton »

You've forgotten Victor and Valiant and Vulcan in the bomber calculations. Plus whatever the French had.
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

David Newton wrote: Sat May 03, 2025 9:10 pm You've forgotten Victor and Valiant and Vulcan in the bomber calculations. Plus whatever the French had.
Well, the context of that post was reconstructing data from WSEG-50, which is what was handed to McNamara in 1960, and helped form a large basis of his decisions for the later 1960ies; so the V Force is discounted.
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MKSheppard
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by MKSheppard »

"The SAC Alert System 1956-1970" says:
"When operating at peak strength during the [Cuban] crisis, approximately 65 airborne B-52s and 240 nuclear weapons were 'target effective' at any given time."
In "Strategic Air Command Operations in the Cuban Crisis of 1962" the censors blotted out the nuke count, but also let through some other information saying that on 27 October; there were 22 HOUND DOGS and 48 QUAILS airborne along with [DELETED] internal weapons over 65 aircraft.

The B-52F SAC of July 1964 (also backed up by the B-52G SAC of July 1964, albeit with slightly different weight loadings) says that the design missile load mission is:

2 x AGM-28 HOUND DOG (18,886 lbs)
4 x ADM-20 QUAIL (4,840 lbs)
Droppable Racks (590 lbs)
TOTAL: 24,316 lbs

If we assume this is "standard" then it means that the majority of the missiles airborne that day were being carried by just 11 aircraft; meaning that the remaining 54 aircraft were carrying 218 free-fall bombs; or an average of 4.03 weapons per plane.

That's high enough to suggest that quad packs of B28s and B43s at 1 MT each would have been the basis of the alert force's attack.

This is backed up by the 1966 Palomares incident where a CHROME DOME B-52G crashed with four B28s onboard.

Thinking some more, it's looking to me that the 1960s SAC Airborne Alert plans were:

The "missile force" of about 12 aircraft launch their HOUND DOGS at key Soviet Air Defense (Radar + Missile + Fighter Airfield) locations in a designated sector; and then about 40 minutes after launching the HOUND DOGS, they drop their QUAILS.

This on paper, would mimic a SAC main force attack roughly equal to the airborne alert force with the intention of drawing the interior interceptor force away from the actual intended axis of attack.

Meanwhile, the actual airborne alert force is headed down an axis of attack roughly 500-600 miles west or east of the "mock" attack.

The image below is from a paper written in 1961; you can see what I mean by "feinting" with the HOUND DOG force:
Evaluation_1969_Compositions_16-MAR-1961_FIG-1.gif
For this concept of feint/diversion to work; you'd have to be flying "low".

Radar Horizon for a target at 30,000 ft is about 240~ miles. If you fly at 2000 ft the radar horizon is 60~ miles.

Low altitude capability for SAC in the 1960s was never about escaping SAMs -- it was all about obfuscating the location of the force from the associated IADS that the SAMs were part of.

From the northern coast of Russia to the latitude that Moscow, Kazan and Yekaterinburg are at; it's about a thousand miles; or about two hours at cruising speed.

That's plenty of time for the interior defenses to reorganize; and Soviet interceptors have almost always been heavily dependent on GCI.

Deny the interior defenses accurate tracks, and their interceptors will be hundreds of miles away when a piece of the sun visits the Motherland.

I've thought some more about this; and it means that the alert force will have to avoid striking targets for the first hour of penetration, to avoid "tipping off" the Soviet defenders as to where the main force is actually attacking.

This led me down a further line of thinking -- have we been carefully misdirected over the decades as to just how much low altitude bombing would *actually* be done in the 1960s?

Consider:

1.) Not every target is Moscow, with 40+ SAM sites defending it from all axises of attack.

2.) The US knew where a large proportion of Russian ADA radars were from the 1960s onwards via Space Based ELINT:
sigint-targets-ussr.jpg
That's a map of Russian radars detected by GRAB, which ran from 1960-1962; followed by POPPY (1962-1971), and AFTRACK (1960-1967).

3.) The B-47's famous LABS toss bombing was because the Stratojet didn't have the room for modern ECM -- it was the only way the B-47 could get near some of the more heavily defended targets.

4.) Once you start nuking targets, it's going to provide a flaming datum as to where you really are; whether from the mushroom clouds or the holes in the radar network.

So why *begin* the attack at low level if:

1.) You've got the ECM payload to support a medium altitude (25,000 ft) attack.

2.) You're still relying on gravity bombs -- low altitude attacks rely on either LABS (inaccurate) or parachute retardation (may or may not actually work).

I also just realized a counterpoint to the above.

The entire concept of the Airborne Alert Force seems to be centered around carrying a large number of relatively low yield (megaton class) weapons; intended not to totally obliterate enemy cities; but to shotgun holes in the enemy's defenses.

If you reveal SAC medium-high altitude techniques and tactics to the Soviet defenders with the Airborne Alert force; then the Soviets are going to have an idea of how the SAC Ground Alert forces will fight when they arrive nine hours after the start of WW3, carrying the heavy, very high yield Class B "crowd pleasers".

This in turn is making me understand why General Power had no patience for RAND's 'counterforce' briefing by Kaufmann in 1960...because SAC's portion of the SIOP was already oriented towards that, especially in responding to a Bolt Out Of The Blue (BOOB) scenario!

The first round of attacks by SAC's ICBMs and Airborne Alert Force are going to be primarily counterforce strikes aimed at defense suppression by targeting enemy airfields and radar sites; the yields of the devices on the Airborne Alert force hint heavily towards that.

Yes, Moscow and Leningrad are going to be trashed in the process -- but the majority of Russian cities are going to be mostly untouched and it's going to take nine hours for the Ground Alert Force of the time (200+ bombers) to arrive over Soviet targets to finish the job with multi-megaton party favors.

That's plenty of time for war termination negotiations, etc etc.

So Power blowing his top at Kaufman is starting to make more sense; because Kaufman was telling Power obvious stuff - i.e. the sky is blue - and acting like it was some stunning insight.
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Straker
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Re: Plotting out WWIII: It's Really HARD

Post by Straker »

MKSheppard wrote: Sun May 04, 2025 5:55 am
This led me down a further line of thinking -- have we been carefully misdirected over the decades as to just how much low altitude bombing would *actually* be done in the 1960s?
I'm not sure we are ever going to have the full answer when the aircraft as opposed to space plane based component of SAC or its successor is still in business. Although thinking along these lines a part of me thinks the answer is probably less than everyone assumed.

I'd argue that you train for the most difficult mission i.e. low level attack against a fully functioning defensive system. Further to that a lot of what is thought of as the "tactic that will be used" tends to come from your training experience. Not what will actually be used most as part of the planning for war.

I'm fairly sure that SRAM would change this calculus significantly once it came into service. The development of things more capable than SA-2 and SA-1 i.e. SA-5 probably changed things again by the late 1960's before SRAM increased the "throw-weight" of the counter IADS parts of the SAC alert force. Especially when the SAC force itself stagnated in terms of aircraft capability advancing at a much slower pace than previously once B52 came into service and the next evolution was prematurely cancelled.
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