History, Politics And Current Affairs

Wolfman wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 9:54 pm Lukedalton is at it again over on Lordroel’s forum…

I see, but as long as it is a discussion there is not much i will do.

My last was intended for the rest of the Brain Trust.

Wolfman wrote: ↑Mon Feb 03, 2025 3:28 pm My last was intended for the rest of the Brain Trust.

My apologies.

Wolfman wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 9:54 pm Lukedalton is at it again over on Lordroel’s forum…

If he wants to expound his ideas for the RDverse, then as far as I’m concerned he can do so until the cows come home. It has no impact on established canon.

Fair enough. That said, his mention of the Mirage 4000 possibly getting a production run has me thinking that in that, at least, he might possibly have a point…

Mirage 4000 getting some orders-especially since the normal American and British suppliers are busy with wartime orders, is a possibility.

A Saudi order?

Very possible: they were looking at it in the early '80s, before their hoped-for second round of F-15s was killed by the Israeli lobby, and they went to Tornado IDS and F. With the war on, that order gets deferred as the RAF appropriates the birds on the production line.

Although, what does the Mirage 4000 give in terms of capabilities that the 2000 doesn’t? Would it have been significantly better for the Saudis to risk being the only operator, or being stuck with development costs?

Well, I was thinking of the Mirage 4000 being a heavy strike fighter akin to the F-15E, and it entering service to replace the nuclear version of the Mirage 2000 in 1987…

RE: Mirage 4000

Some @ info to consider re. the Mirage 4000:
* Private venture development financed by Dassault.
* Single aircraft built.
* The aircraft was a one-third scaled up Mirage 2000 with two M53 engines.
* Systems and avionics from the Mirage 2000 were borrowed whenever possible.
* Aerodynamics virtually identical to Mirage 2000.
* First flown on 9 March 1979. Grounded 1983.
* Returned to flight in 1986 to undertake trials for the Rafale program. Last flight 8 January 1988.
* Still in use by the French Flight Test Center (CEV) in 1989.

The war kicks off in early September 1985, yes?

In @, the Saudi Tornado contract wasn't signed until 25 September 1985. First IDS delivery was 26 March 1986, and first ADV delivery was 20 March 1989. That's for an in-service and in-production aircraft.

So I'd say it's a question of what the French GOVERNMENT wants.
Consider the following for the Mirage 2000N:
* Prototype ordered in 1979.
* Mirage 2000N prototype first flight was 3 February 1983.
* First batch budgeted in 1983 defense budget.
* First flight of production Mirage 2000N was 3 February 1986.

As an added wrinkle, the Rafale A first flight was 4 July 1986.

So in late September 1985, does the French government tell Dassault to stop work on the Mirage 2000N and probably Rafale, and commit resources to turning a single prototype program into the future of the French Air Force?

Could a large foreign order make the Mirage 4000 possible? Maybe. But by the time it's production ready, you can probably have Rafale. I think it's more likely that the Saudi's fund what became Mirage 2000D and that program moves up a couple years.

Or, do the French Government and Dassault step back and look at all the potential F-16 customers who want new fighters, and throw resources into ramping up the Mirage 2000 line and accelerate Mirage 2000N and Rafale development?

James1978 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 1:38 am RE: Mirage 4000

Some @ info to consider re. the Mirage 4000:
* Private venture development financed by Dassault.
* Single aircraft built.
* The aircraft was a one-third scaled up Mirage 2000 with two M53 engines.
* Systems and avionics from the Mirage 2000 were borrowed whenever possible.
* Aerodynamics virtually identical to Mirage 2000.
* First flown on 9 March 1979. Grounded 1983.
* Returned to flight in 1986 to undertake trials for the Rafale program. Last flight 8 January 1988.
* Still in use by the French Flight Test Center (CEV) in 1989.

The war kicks off in early September 1985, yes?

In @, the Saudi Tornado contract wasn't signed until 25 September 1985. First IDS delivery was 26 March 1986, and first ADV delivery was 20 March 1989. That's for an in-service and in-production aircraft.

So I'd say it's a question of what the French GOVERNMENT wants.
Consider the following for the Mirage 2000N:
* Prototype ordered in 1979.
* Mirage 2000N prototype first flight was 3 February 1983.
* First batch budgeted in 1983 defense budget.
* First flight of production Mirage 2000N was 3 February 1986.

As an added wrinkle, the Rafale A first flight was 4 July 1986.

So in late September 1985, does the French government tell Dassault to stop work on the Mirage 2000N and probably Rafale, and commit resources to turning a single prototype program into the future of the French Air Force?

Could a large foreign order make the Mirage 4000 possible? Maybe. But by the time it's production ready, you can probably have Rafale. I think it's more likely that the Saudi's fund what became Mirage 2000D and that program moves up a couple years.

Or, do the French Government and Dassault step back and look at all the potential F-16 customers who want new fighters, and throw resources into ramping up the Mirage 2000 line and accelerate Mirage 2000N and Rafale development?

With all of the pre-1985 ripples that happen, the Mirage 4000 program doesn't die off. The whole process NATO imploding will give serious impetus to improving the Force de Dissuasion and French long-range strike capabilities in general, and the program continues without interruption. As a result, the Mirage 4000 is in low-rate production when the balloon goes up, and everyone who needs a long range interceptor/strike aircraft (and that's a LOT of countries around the world, actually, now that things are going KABOOM on the regular) start waving checkbooks, and "low-rate production" quickly goes to "three shifts."

Poohbah wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 1:53 am

James1978 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 1:38 am RE: Mirage 4000

Some @ info to consider re. the Mirage 4000:
* Private venture development financed by Dassault.
* Single aircraft built.
* The aircraft was a one-third scaled up Mirage 2000 with two M53 engines.
* Systems and avionics from the Mirage 2000 were borrowed whenever possible.
* Aerodynamics virtually identical to Mirage 2000.
* First flown on 9 March 1979. Grounded 1983.
* Returned to flight in 1986 to undertake trials for the Rafale program. Last flight 8 January 1988.
* Still in use by the French Flight Test Center (CEV) in 1989.

The war kicks off in early September 1985, yes?

In @, the Saudi Tornado contract wasn't signed until 25 September 1985. First IDS delivery was 26 March 1986, and first ADV delivery was 20 March 1989. That's for an in-service and in-production aircraft.

So I'd say it's a question of what the French GOVERNMENT wants.
Consider the following for the Mirage 2000N:
* Prototype ordered in 1979.
* Mirage 2000N prototype first flight was 3 February 1983.
* First batch budgeted in 1983 defense budget.
* First flight of production Mirage 2000N was 3 February 1986.

As an added wrinkle, the Rafale A first flight was 4 July 1986.

So in late September 1985, does the French government tell Dassault to stop work on the Mirage 2000N and probably Rafale, and commit resources to turning a single prototype program into the future of the French Air Force?

Could a large foreign order make the Mirage 4000 possible? Maybe. But by the time it's production ready, you can probably have Rafale. I think it's more likely that the Saudi's fund what became Mirage 2000D and that program moves up a couple years.

Or, do the French Government and Dassault step back and look at all the potential F-16 customers who want new fighters, and throw resources into ramping up the Mirage 2000 line and accelerate Mirage 2000N and Rafale development?

With all of the pre-1985 ripples that happen, the Mirage 4000 program doesn't die off. The whole process NATO imploding will give serious impetus to improving the Force de Dissuasion and French long-range strike capabilities in general, and the program continues without interruption. As a result, the Mirage 4000 is in low-rate production when the balloon goes up, and everyone who needs a long range interceptor/strike aircraft (and that's a LOT of countries around the world, actually, now that things are going KABOOM on the regular) start waving checkbooks, and "low-rate production" quickly goes to "three shifts."

Hit the nail on the head, Poohbah!

Does the French watermelon government want to improve its long range strike capability? After all, some of its members are in the pockets of the KGB.

Bernard Woolley wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 12:28 pm Does the French watermelon government want to improve its long range strike capability? After all, some of its members are in the pockets of the KGB.

If we go by the original script for 1984 movie then called Ten Soldiers we see some interesting prologue with parts not shown in movie prologue, including something the French would do if it would do if it benefits them.

- France Signs Non-Aggression Pact with Soviets.

Mitterand is still French President TTL, but he has to tread cautiously in 1985-6 as a number of members of the French Parliament are on the KGB payroll. However, upgrading the French nuclear deterrent is something he has enough of a majority to do so, even if it's a slim one. Especially as Dassault points out that there will be French jobs created as a result of the Mirage 4000 program.

Also, remember that the French military and the DGSE maintained quiet links to the Allies during the war, sharing intelligence among other things being done. The Soviet carrier group photographed by a French Navy MPA shown in the photo section? Once the aircraft was clear, the position was reported-over GUARD, in the clear, and in English. And this wasn't the only time.

For fear of picking up the stick to resume beating my favourite dead horse... reposting the NZDF OOBs for WW3 has prompted me to revisit the topic of the Project KAHU upgrade for the RNZAF Skyhawks.

I know it was agreed that the historical programme was not viable under wartime pressures, so the current state of my RNZAF write-up caps KAHU at just two flyable tech-demonstrators (and both of those getting written off during the war)... but post-war, the RNZAF would probably like to have those kinds of increased capabilities, and I can just see the Beehive (perennial penny-pinchers that they are!) calling such a programme (if applied to wartime-build, relatively low-hour airframes like Downey-made A-4Ms) ‘cheaper’ than buying full-up F-16s or F-18s or F-20s. Not to mention how production of all those types would be very much prioritised for American inventories first (at least according to our politicians ), and even with the ex-RN frigates as a stopgap, the majority of the NZ defence budget for the next decade or so would likely be allocated to the RNZN for an analogue to the @ ANZAC frigate deal. (ITTL, maybe that deal becomes licence-production of modified Hull-class, or if decided earlier, perhaps an Oliver Hazard Perry variant redesigned/improved following wartime experiences? The Perry-class were still being built when WW3 kicked off, after all!)
The RNZAF, even with its heroics over the Pacific Northwest for pretty much the whole war bolstering its public image, would likely have to take a back seat to such a major purchase and content itself with a refit of its existing aircraft, rather than a ‘major capital purchase’ like all-new front-line birds.

FWIW, with my choice of the JAS-39 as the eventual replacement for the Skyhawks, Project KAHU II could well be a joint effort between McDonnell Douglas/its successors and the Swedish. IOTL, KAHU was cramming F-16 systems into the Skyhawk to prepare our pilots to fly the Viper (IIRC, we actually had aircrew in the US undergoing F-16 type-conversion training when Helen Clark pulled the plug! ); perhaps KAHU II could be set up as a similar ‘soft transition’ to the JAS-39E/F.

Do we know if the IAI Lavi. Israeli combat aircraft prototype entered into service, even if it was an limit numbers.

it used a Pratt and Whitney engine, and that company was busy with work a lot closer to home. They wound up canceling the program and buying F-16 Block 40s after the war (which made both GD and P&W very happy).

The Lavi might have been an interesting fighter design if it had gone beyond the prototype stage…

As for P&W, you bet they were busy with the F-100, F-101, and TF30 turbofans and that’s just off the top of my head.