History, Politics And Current Affairs

So I was thinking the past couple of days about the prospects of Brilliant Pebbles 2.0, which appears to have foundered in the 80s on the twin rocks of a) how are you going to make 6000+ small low-orbit satellites at less than prohibitive cost; and b) how are you going to launch 6000+ satellites at less than prohibitive cost.

Starlink has answered both questions pretty substantively.

I think it's only a matter of time before we hear of weapons deployment on Starshield.

What I want to see is how much it would cost to build an optical Hubble replacement that would launch on the Starship. Imagine the science possible with a 20 ft diameter space based mirror....

kdahm wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 6:40 pm What I want to see is how much it would cost to build an optical Hubble replacement that would launch on the Starship. Imagine the science possible with a 20 ft diameter space based mirror....

Scientists are already looking at the possibilities either using Starship or New Glenn's 7m Diameter fairing for the next generation space telescopes. A starship could accommodate a folding mirror of 10-12 meters wide. Lots of possibilities.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/10/a ... -paradigm/

Spam half meter telescopes in a variety of wavelengths on starlink frames.

Kunkmiester wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 9:41 pm Spam half meter telescopes in a variety of wavelengths on starlink frames.

I believe the NRO is also ready spamming earth observation satellites on Starlink sat buses. I probably wouldn't take much to build some space telescopes to look out. Would be a interesting concept to build some astronomy satellites on a standard Starlink bus and see what could be done for a couple of million dollars.

The other part is SpaceX has driven the cost down past the government threshold. Hubble could be launched on a falcon 9 if a quick Google got the numbers right.

Even with a custom frame, a billion dollars would probably get someone a "Scrooge McDuck space telescope array" with a big enough endowment left over to keep it up for decades.

And who will be the first to turn a Starship into a space yacht?

kdahm wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 6:40 pm What I want to see is how much it would cost to build an optical Hubble replacement that would launch on the Starship. Imagine the science possible with a 20 ft diameter space based mirror....

Casey Handmer has bigger ambitions.

SpaceX has received some good news from the FAA that it looks like in early January that the FAA will approve up to 25 launches a year from Boca Chica. The FAA in this draft version of the EA also approved the increases in performance that SpaceX is looking at for the complete Starship launch ship.

"FAA has concluded that the modification of SpaceX’s existing vehicle operator license for Starship/Super Heavy operations conforms to the prior environmental documentation, consistent with the data contained in the 2022 PEA, that there are no significant environmental changes, and all pertinent conditions and requirements of the prior approval have been met or will be met in the current action," the federal agency stated in its conclusion.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/11/s ... -launches/

SpaceX is planning for the next launch in January(7th flight) and will be the first V2 flight of the upper stage (Starship). Musk is hoping that they can try for a catch attempt with Starship on the 8th flight.

What are you guys willing to bet Musk is going to gut NASA to be the sole provider for US space endeavors?

Jotun wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2024 6:55 am What are you guys willing to bet Musk is going to gut NASA to be the sole provider for US space endeavors?

Hard to say. As I understand it, DOGE will make recommendations. For most things, it will take Congress acting to change things.

I think Musk wants the government to be an informed consumer so they don't get taken for a ride by contractors and get the most bang for the taxpayers money. There will still be a role for in house aerospace expertise if for no other reason than to make sure the government is an informed consumer. DoD used to have a lot of in house expertise in design which helped them keep the contractors honest and act as a bullshit detector, until the Cold War ended and most of that in house expertise got cut in budget reductions. I'm not sure anyone would argue that's been a net positive for military acquisition over the long run.

Let's be honest, when we say "US space endeavors", the primary customer is the DoD / Intelligence Community. That buyer isn't going to sole source space access. And NASA seems to want to diversify the effort to return to the Moon.
Thus far, SpaceX doesn't seem too interested in science satellites, but that could change.
And commercial customers want their payloads up as soon as possible for the best price. That's probably not going to lead them to ULA.
The ISS replacement is looking to be a commercial station with NASA being but one customer buying/renting access. For better for worse, NASA has been moving away from being the vertically integrated space agency of yore for years now and toward being a consumer of a la carte commercial services. Though I'm pretty sure the pure science missions are in house to a degree.

Yes, SpaceX is good at what they do. But they look even better when compared to their competitors.
- Compare the disaster that is Boeing's Starliner to SpaceX's Crew Dragon which was built for a fraction of the budget.
- SLS may have beat Starship to launch, but the cost per SLS is eye watering and assuming Starship works as hoped, SLS will never match it's launch rate.
- As of today, only Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are certified for National Security Space Launch missions since ULA's Delta IV and Atlas V* were retired. Though ULA's Vulcan Centaur should be certified soon. And I believe Vulcan Centaur will have some reusability. [* All remaining Atlas V's flights are booked.]
- Blue Origin has yet to launch New Glenn, but let's wait and see. If it works, they can give SpaceX some real competition for launch services.

What you guys are going to face if the unstable X provider has his way is complete deregulation of all markets to the detriment of everybody and everything BUT corporations.

And you really do not want that…

As long as they deregulate liability too.

Jotun wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2024 9:34 am What you guys are going to face if the unstable X provider has his way is complete deregulation of all markets to the detriment of everybody and everything BUT corporations.

And you really do not want that…

This video from several years ago really highlights what Musk is pushing for which is competitive frim fixed price contracts and no sole source cost-plus contracts.

https://youtu.be/uRgzd-nHcxU?si=TM9Zer6fwCC6lWFn

Jotun wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2024 6:55 am What are you guys willing to bet Musk is going to gut NASA to be the sole provider for US space endeavors?

Musk is certainly ruthless enough to do this. However, there is no need for him to do this. SpaceX is over 10 times cheaper to get things into space than the vast majority of his competitors. Against the ULA he is significantly better than that.

I do think he will kill cost-plus contracts as SpaceX doesn't have the accounting overhead to even do cost-plus contracts. However, this is a GOOD thing. Cost-plus contracts have been an utter disaster for the US government. They guarantee that companies execute contracts in the most inefficient manner possible as they get paid more that way.

Calder wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 5:54 pm

Jotun wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2024 6:55 am What are you guys willing to bet Musk is going to gut NASA to be the sole provider for US space endeavors?

Musk is certainly ruthless enough to do this. However, there is no need for him to do this. SpaceX is over 10 times cheaper to get things into space than the vast majority of his competitors. Against the ULA he is significantly better than that.

I do think he will kill cost-plus contracts as SpaceX doesn't have the accounting overhead to even do cost-plus contracts. However, this is a GOOD thing. Cost-plus contracts have been an utter disaster for the US government. They guarantee that companies execute contracts in the most inefficient manner possible as they get paid more that way.

Trump just nominated Jared Isaacman for NASA Administrator. Isaacman is a strong pick that understands the importance of space and has experience running large businesses. I can very much see Musk's fingerprints all over this choice.