The Moscow Criterion (insights from the Ukrainian War)

[MKSheppard]

So...

Way back in the old days, Stuart (PBUH) essentially said that Moscow was a high level Soviet/Russian Mashkirova deception asset -- i.e. nations like the UK where a significant fraction of national GDP and assets were tied up in the Capital (aka London) mirror imaged what teh loss of London to the UK would be to the USSR, hence the UK focus on destroying Moscow; even as the UK deterrent shrank from the V-Force down to the SSBN force with Chevaline to hold a single target at risk.

At the time, it made some sense; but now that we've seen how Moscow is willing to sacrifice loads of far eastern minorities (Buryiats) in Ukraine, rather than call for increased mobilisation measures in the Moscow region (look at per capita losses for Russian Districts in the UA war); and we've gotten inputs from people like Kamil Galeev on Twitter, who recounted how Moscow always got first pick of priority produce (to the point that people would take special trains to Moscow to get stuff there that couldn't be gotten elsewhere in the USSR) in the old days.

It makes me wonder what would have happened to the USSR if pretty much everyone in the CPSU who's who got vaporized in the first few hours of WW3 gone ultimate hot -- everyone has been mirror imaging their own national polities onto the USSR and then later the Russian Federation.

For all the jokes about how the US/UK/French citizens would suggest a list of certain cities to be targeted (hit London/Paris/Washington/Baltimore etc); there's still a greater national consciousness in all of these nations that seems to be lacking in the Russian Empire -- to a lot of people in the Empire, Moscow is a faraway place that you have to send bribes every so often, and you don't get anything back in return; reducing national consciousness.

[jemhouston]

Robert Heinlein and his wife Ginny (?) toured the USSR back in the 50's (?). They both took Russian courses; his wife became very good. He came to the same conclusion.

[Craiglxviii]

So...

Way back in the old days, Stuart (PBUH) essentially said that Moscow was a high level Soviet/Russian Mashkirova deception asset -- i.e. nations like the UK where a significant fraction of national GDP and assets were tied up in the Capital (aka London) mirror imaged what teh loss of London to the UK would be to the USSR, hence the UK focus on destroying Moscow; even as the UK deterrent shrank from the V-Force down to the SSBN force with Chevaline to hold a single target at risk.

At the time, it made some sense; but now that we've seen how Moscow is willing to sacrifice loads of far eastern minorities (Buryiats) in Ukraine, rather than call for increased mobilisation measures in the Moscow region (look at per capita losses for Russian Districts in the UA war); and we've gotten inputs from people like Kamil Galeev on Twitter, who recounted how Moscow always got first pick of priority produce (to the point that people would take special trains to Moscow to get stuff there that couldn't be gotten elsewhere in the USSR) in the old days.

It makes me wonder what would have happened to the USSR if pretty much everyone in the CPSU who's who got vaporized in the first few hours of WW3 gone ultimate hot -- everyone has been mirror imaging their own national polities onto the USSR and then later the Russian Federation.

For all the jokes about how the US/UK/French citizens would suggest a list of certain cities to be targeted (hit London/Paris/Washington/Baltimore etc); there's still a greater national consciousness in all of these nations that seems to be lacking in the Russian Empire -- to a lot of people in the Empire, Moscow is a faraway place that you have to send bribes every so often, and you don't get anything back in return; reducing national consciousness.

Now that…. is a VERY interesting point.

Double maskirovka? Maskirovka squared?

[Johnnie Lyle]

Is it really maskirova if you’re lying to yourselves?

[Craiglxviii]

Is it really maskirova if you’re lying to yourselves?

Maskirovka cubed. Because at that point no-one knows the truth.

[jemhouston]

Is it really maskirova if you’re lying to yourselves?

Maskirovka cubed. Because at that point no-one knows the truth.

SOP in Russia, each level lies to the one above it. It's costing them in Ukraine.

[Vendetta]

I don't know if that was ever really true in the first place, but it certainly isn't now. Moscow's population is as large as the next seven biggest cities put together (St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Chelyabinsk) and it vastly outweighs any other city in terms of economic activity.

METROPOLITAN AREAS GMP PER CAPITA RANKING, THOUSAND RUBLES, 2015
(FOR RUSSIA, THE NATIONAL AVERAGE GDP PER CAPITA)

https://www.urbaneconomics.ru/en/expert ... tropolitan

[Drunknsubmrnr]

That graph has Haishenwai spelled wrong.

[Vendetta]

You mean Urajio?

[Drunknsubmrnr]

That too.

[Craiglxviii]

Is it really maskirova if you’re lying to yourselves?

Maskirovka cubed. Because at that point no-one knows the truth.

SOP in Russia, each level lies to the one above it. It's costing them in Ukraine.

True. But they had 25 years of normalisation of truth/ fact & data (to varying degrees). Good to see that it only penetrated skin deep.

[jemhouston]

Maskirovka cubed. Because at that point no-one knows the truth.

SOP in Russia, each level lies to the one above it. It's costing them in Ukraine.

True. But they had 25 years of normalisation of truth/ fact & data (to varying degrees). Good to see that it only penetrated skin deep.

If it went any deeper, it would hurt the graft.