The Cards Reshuffled
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The Cards Reshuffled
It was a dark and stormy night. As the year of our Lord 1794 began and a cold and bitter December became a a cold and bitter January, a twinkling, twinkling little star did appear above the erstwhile location of a recently demolished mansion in Bletchley, Buckinghamshire, though nary a man, woman or beast was out to witness it. There was a pulsing of some sort of gold and crimson lights, then a bright flash that coincided with a peal of thunder from the New Year's storm.
When the light cleared, where there had recently been empty space was now filled by an elegant and stately manor house of a strange style that would appear quite different to the Englishmen who would subsequently behold it, and beyond the house a stableyard, workshops, outbuildings, sheds, several large barns, no less than three walled kitchen gardens, a rather spiffy pond and what appeared to be a windmill of all things. Stretching out around the buildings were large fields, some of which had cow, sheep and pig sheds within them, and beyond the fields were strangely verdant woods of quite venerable age and curious character, a deer park, and more fields. In the twinkling of an eye, they were just there.
The strange method of their arrival was not the only change. Even as the local folk around Bletchley would come past the house in the park in the days and weeks to come, it was their fervent belief that it had always been there, replete with its surrounds; any question to the contrary was just simply potty. Similarly, insofar as the written records of the county went, there was indeed a deed of ownership of the property, not to the erstwhile Thomas Harrison of Wolverton - who awoke in his bed at home the next day with a terrific headache, a blurred memory and an inexplicable yet bulging pouch of gold guineas - but to one Simon Browning.
"An innocuous name for an innocuous beginning." The man now known as Simon Browning remarked to himself, gazing out of the window of the third floor library in what he would term for the moment simply as 'The House'; calling it by the other name seemed a tad too trite for the time being. He turned back to the others of his kind in the room, eleven of them in total, and all men.
The Physician. The Poet. The Mariner. The Warrior. The Bard. The Merchant. The Farmer. The Explorer. The Scholar. The Smith. The Builder. And himself, The Wizard. Together they, now the last of their kind on this new old world, along those of the lesser servants who had also made the journey, would try for...for something better than what had been, certainly. Even a victory, perhaps, against that Dark which had Risen in their own time, place and space, if it were possible. It should be possible, nay, more than that, thought The Wizard, kindling up the sterner stuff and that tiny flickering flame of hope within him. With this much time, and this much advantage delivered to the nation best placed to use it...then there was more than a chance, more than a possibility.
Enough. There was no time for doubt. Even now, there was no time to waste.
"Gentlemen," he began with a wry grin, for that they most certainly were not. "All of our systems indicate that we have successfully arrived, as planned, in the middle of England on January 1st, 1794. We have with us the tools, the knowledge and the means to completely change history as it previously occurred on Earth in the 19th and 20th centuries, with all that means for our own time and the Troubles mankind has faced in the second half of the 21st century. We all know the mission, and what it means, and why we cannot afford failure. There are several parts to the path that we've taken to ensure it.
First is the knowledge, books, skills and plans we've bought, which will, if used properly, kickstart Britain forward decades when they are properly bought to bear, and with it the knowledge of who to best give that information. Second is what is contained in the cellar, which can pay for it all when used wisely and under control, at 80 bars of gold per day, every day, so long as the precise Agreement is not broken. Third is the contents of our infirmary, which may well be the most valiable. Fourth is the impact of The Changes, and we all know the cost our home had to pay for those. Doctor Savage, would you be able to outline them?"
"In terms of existing mineral deposits, particularly of coal, they have been 'restocked' and expanded, so that their maximum output will be roughly doubled, over an extended period of time. For gold, there is Black Mount in Argyll and Matlock in Derbyshire, with the equivalent potential to a maximum output of four and two million ounces per annum for approximately one hundred and twenty five human years. In terms of iron, there is the new deposit at Cannich broadly analogous to Kiruna, and the deepening of the Cleveland ore body. The Parys mountain copper deposit has been expanded considerably, up to a theoretical half a million tons annually. The Broken Hill ore body has been replicated at Tara, and that known as Olympic Dam in the Derryveagh Mountains. It is in the final area of oil and gas that the most significant outcomes have been reached, with a new gas field in North Wales equivalent to Urengoy, the oil field around Hawksworth and Sherwood on par with Burgan, and the Vale of Pickering, Wytch Farm and Hatfield Moor the equivalent of Rumaila; in oil alone, that equates to a maximum of seven million barrels per day, once production is possible, for over a century."
"Quite the array. It should be worth the cost, if any of this is." said the Warrior.
"Ours is no longer to reason why; there isn't time for that. Now, we must do. Every year we gain is worth ten, or the world itself. And remember, in your new role, you'll need to adopt more of a Yorkshire accent and throw the word 'bastard' around liberally."
"I'll sharpen up then. You bastard."
"That's the spirit. You all know what we have to do on the morrow, when the first moves towards contact with the authorities of this Britain takes place for some among us, and all can begin to move. This has taken so very long, and so very much, to accomplish.
We've loaded the deck; now it is time to begin to play our cards."
The Warrior, under the name of Richard Sharpe, is to join the British Army, rise in ranks and influence and help put the new weapons, tactics, equipment and ideas that are offered into action in an optimal manner, whilst eventually being a driver for change in strategy and approach when in higher command.
The Physician, under the name of Stephen Maturin, is to become a doctor, be seconded to the Royal Navy for certain purposes, and to propagate knowledge and utilisation of medicines, treatments, theories, practices, hygiene and behaviours, over time, in order to improve the health of the country and the wider world.
The Poet, to be known as Sir Percy Blakeney, is to take on the outward role of a fop, dandy, man of fashion and a Romantic poet, whilst cultivating a secret identity as a bold adventurer and secret agent for the Crown and being a deep strategic thinker, writer, linguist, musician, archaeologist and chemist. One particular mission will begin very soon.
The Mariner, known henceforth as Horatio Hornblower, will join the Royal Navy, ostensibly as a youthful midshipman, and work his way forward through daring, making the right choices at certain historical junctures and utilising some new equipment and methods, eventually rising to high command.
The Bard, under the name of Jack Aubrey, will also join the Royal Navy, cultivating a reputation for extraordinary luck, devotion and leadership, whilst having many more strings to his (fiddle) bow.
The Merchant, to be known as Edmund Blackadder, is to use the largesse of a week's worth of gold to invest in a number of companies and establish other businesses, whilst driving forward certain ideas and concepts of business practice and economics. In time, he will become particularly close to the Prince of Wales and become close to indispensable to him.
The Farmer, under the name of Giles MacDonald, will manage and farm new crops and livestock around The House, and become particularly influential about farming, agronomy, breeding and other areas of science, engineering and social policy, as well as potentially political ideas, in time.
The Explorer, known henceforth as Doctor Clark Savage, will be eager to find his fortune, to find new adventures in new lands, to cross uncharted seas and discover unknown countries and to go boldly forth when no man has gone before. An inventor, writer, scientist, linguist, archaelogist, but above all else, a classical adventurer.
The Scholar, to be known as Professor Roger 'Elemental' Brown, is to bring to bear the knowledge and expertise of 21st century science to an older world, combining the energy of Da Vinci, the innovation of Edison and the curiosity of Franklin with the benefit of centuries of information and the means to use it.
The Smith, under the name of Edward Richardson, is to utilise extensive knowledge and understanding of metallurgy, gunsmithing, artillery, armour, industry, machinery and manufacturing to build his own business and act as a harbinger of advanced methods and information, as well as a mentor to other potential industrialists.
The Builder, under the name of Alexander Scott-Montgomery, is a structural and civil engineer, architect and shipwright, mathematician, geographer and trainspotter/railway fanatic. With funding, he is to join with and mentor a number of significant engineers and builders over the next several generations, influencing their ideas and steering their development towards certain areas.
The Wizard, or Simon Browning, possesses no magics, no spells and no supernatural capabilities beyond the ability to be extremely persuasive, and to dispense certain medicines contained within The House. He is a historian, amongst other training as a political scientist, strategist, philosopher, writer, scientist and lawyer. His role, in addition to being a generalist coordinator, is to provide advice and counsel to political leadership and influence the development of the grand strategy of the nation and empire.
When the light cleared, where there had recently been empty space was now filled by an elegant and stately manor house of a strange style that would appear quite different to the Englishmen who would subsequently behold it, and beyond the house a stableyard, workshops, outbuildings, sheds, several large barns, no less than three walled kitchen gardens, a rather spiffy pond and what appeared to be a windmill of all things. Stretching out around the buildings were large fields, some of which had cow, sheep and pig sheds within them, and beyond the fields were strangely verdant woods of quite venerable age and curious character, a deer park, and more fields. In the twinkling of an eye, they were just there.
The strange method of their arrival was not the only change. Even as the local folk around Bletchley would come past the house in the park in the days and weeks to come, it was their fervent belief that it had always been there, replete with its surrounds; any question to the contrary was just simply potty. Similarly, insofar as the written records of the county went, there was indeed a deed of ownership of the property, not to the erstwhile Thomas Harrison of Wolverton - who awoke in his bed at home the next day with a terrific headache, a blurred memory and an inexplicable yet bulging pouch of gold guineas - but to one Simon Browning.
"An innocuous name for an innocuous beginning." The man now known as Simon Browning remarked to himself, gazing out of the window of the third floor library in what he would term for the moment simply as 'The House'; calling it by the other name seemed a tad too trite for the time being. He turned back to the others of his kind in the room, eleven of them in total, and all men.
The Physician. The Poet. The Mariner. The Warrior. The Bard. The Merchant. The Farmer. The Explorer. The Scholar. The Smith. The Builder. And himself, The Wizard. Together they, now the last of their kind on this new old world, along those of the lesser servants who had also made the journey, would try for...for something better than what had been, certainly. Even a victory, perhaps, against that Dark which had Risen in their own time, place and space, if it were possible. It should be possible, nay, more than that, thought The Wizard, kindling up the sterner stuff and that tiny flickering flame of hope within him. With this much time, and this much advantage delivered to the nation best placed to use it...then there was more than a chance, more than a possibility.
Enough. There was no time for doubt. Even now, there was no time to waste.
"Gentlemen," he began with a wry grin, for that they most certainly were not. "All of our systems indicate that we have successfully arrived, as planned, in the middle of England on January 1st, 1794. We have with us the tools, the knowledge and the means to completely change history as it previously occurred on Earth in the 19th and 20th centuries, with all that means for our own time and the Troubles mankind has faced in the second half of the 21st century. We all know the mission, and what it means, and why we cannot afford failure. There are several parts to the path that we've taken to ensure it.
First is the knowledge, books, skills and plans we've bought, which will, if used properly, kickstart Britain forward decades when they are properly bought to bear, and with it the knowledge of who to best give that information. Second is what is contained in the cellar, which can pay for it all when used wisely and under control, at 80 bars of gold per day, every day, so long as the precise Agreement is not broken. Third is the contents of our infirmary, which may well be the most valiable. Fourth is the impact of The Changes, and we all know the cost our home had to pay for those. Doctor Savage, would you be able to outline them?"
"In terms of existing mineral deposits, particularly of coal, they have been 'restocked' and expanded, so that their maximum output will be roughly doubled, over an extended period of time. For gold, there is Black Mount in Argyll and Matlock in Derbyshire, with the equivalent potential to a maximum output of four and two million ounces per annum for approximately one hundred and twenty five human years. In terms of iron, there is the new deposit at Cannich broadly analogous to Kiruna, and the deepening of the Cleveland ore body. The Parys mountain copper deposit has been expanded considerably, up to a theoretical half a million tons annually. The Broken Hill ore body has been replicated at Tara, and that known as Olympic Dam in the Derryveagh Mountains. It is in the final area of oil and gas that the most significant outcomes have been reached, with a new gas field in North Wales equivalent to Urengoy, the oil field around Hawksworth and Sherwood on par with Burgan, and the Vale of Pickering, Wytch Farm and Hatfield Moor the equivalent of Rumaila; in oil alone, that equates to a maximum of seven million barrels per day, once production is possible, for over a century."
"Quite the array. It should be worth the cost, if any of this is." said the Warrior.
"Ours is no longer to reason why; there isn't time for that. Now, we must do. Every year we gain is worth ten, or the world itself. And remember, in your new role, you'll need to adopt more of a Yorkshire accent and throw the word 'bastard' around liberally."
"I'll sharpen up then. You bastard."
"That's the spirit. You all know what we have to do on the morrow, when the first moves towards contact with the authorities of this Britain takes place for some among us, and all can begin to move. This has taken so very long, and so very much, to accomplish.
We've loaded the deck; now it is time to begin to play our cards."
The Warrior, under the name of Richard Sharpe, is to join the British Army, rise in ranks and influence and help put the new weapons, tactics, equipment and ideas that are offered into action in an optimal manner, whilst eventually being a driver for change in strategy and approach when in higher command.
The Physician, under the name of Stephen Maturin, is to become a doctor, be seconded to the Royal Navy for certain purposes, and to propagate knowledge and utilisation of medicines, treatments, theories, practices, hygiene and behaviours, over time, in order to improve the health of the country and the wider world.
The Poet, to be known as Sir Percy Blakeney, is to take on the outward role of a fop, dandy, man of fashion and a Romantic poet, whilst cultivating a secret identity as a bold adventurer and secret agent for the Crown and being a deep strategic thinker, writer, linguist, musician, archaeologist and chemist. One particular mission will begin very soon.
The Mariner, known henceforth as Horatio Hornblower, will join the Royal Navy, ostensibly as a youthful midshipman, and work his way forward through daring, making the right choices at certain historical junctures and utilising some new equipment and methods, eventually rising to high command.
The Bard, under the name of Jack Aubrey, will also join the Royal Navy, cultivating a reputation for extraordinary luck, devotion and leadership, whilst having many more strings to his (fiddle) bow.
The Merchant, to be known as Edmund Blackadder, is to use the largesse of a week's worth of gold to invest in a number of companies and establish other businesses, whilst driving forward certain ideas and concepts of business practice and economics. In time, he will become particularly close to the Prince of Wales and become close to indispensable to him.
The Farmer, under the name of Giles MacDonald, will manage and farm new crops and livestock around The House, and become particularly influential about farming, agronomy, breeding and other areas of science, engineering and social policy, as well as potentially political ideas, in time.
The Explorer, known henceforth as Doctor Clark Savage, will be eager to find his fortune, to find new adventures in new lands, to cross uncharted seas and discover unknown countries and to go boldly forth when no man has gone before. An inventor, writer, scientist, linguist, archaelogist, but above all else, a classical adventurer.
The Scholar, to be known as Professor Roger 'Elemental' Brown, is to bring to bear the knowledge and expertise of 21st century science to an older world, combining the energy of Da Vinci, the innovation of Edison and the curiosity of Franklin with the benefit of centuries of information and the means to use it.
The Smith, under the name of Edward Richardson, is to utilise extensive knowledge and understanding of metallurgy, gunsmithing, artillery, armour, industry, machinery and manufacturing to build his own business and act as a harbinger of advanced methods and information, as well as a mentor to other potential industrialists.
The Builder, under the name of Alexander Scott-Montgomery, is a structural and civil engineer, architect and shipwright, mathematician, geographer and trainspotter/railway fanatic. With funding, he is to join with and mentor a number of significant engineers and builders over the next several generations, influencing their ideas and steering their development towards certain areas.
The Wizard, or Simon Browning, possesses no magics, no spells and no supernatural capabilities beyond the ability to be extremely persuasive, and to dispense certain medicines contained within The House. He is a historian, amongst other training as a political scientist, strategist, philosopher, writer, scientist and lawyer. His role, in addition to being a generalist coordinator, is to provide advice and counsel to political leadership and influence the development of the grand strategy of the nation and empire.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
^^genuine LOL"I'll sharpen up then. You bastard."
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
...... BEYOND WONDERFUL!!!!!!
Mike
Mike
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Thank you, Mike. The aim, as will be expanded upon and played out in subsequent introductory chapters, is to really push the envelope in terms of development, without the limits of having only one ISOTed character or area of interest. It is crafted so that I can delve into some interesting parts of economic, social, industrial, culinary and political history, as well as the full array of Whangs and Bangs from the military side.
Arriving at the beginning of 1794 is a deliberate choice, with one of the first endeavours of Sir Percy Blakeney being the extraction of a much ill treated 10 year old French boy. After that, a certain Corsican is going to end up in a hessian sack.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Some transplanted notes, knowing both the extensive knowledge and areas of interest of the chaps here:
Rifles
- The first aim will be to get a version of a Pattern 1853 Enfield rifled musket in production in 4-5 years
- Coming with the House/Bletchley Park are 5 examples of the Pattern 1853, detailed schematics of the same, pictures and lists of parts of the Pattern 1853, the 2011 Osprey monograph, a copy of ‘Knowing the Enfield’, a copy of ‘The English Cartridge’ and this book https://www.ds-militarybooks.com/SAIS-N ... and-Snider
- The P1853 would be initially tested with the Rifle regiments (guess who...)
- Pattern 1853 as service ‘musket’ with the ‘Sharpe's Rifle’ taking its place with the Rifles (a Sharps rifle copy) by 1805ish
- Their replacement at some point in the 15-20 year period after the Arrival with something like the Snider-Enfield or the Martini-Henry , along with a hand powered proto Gatling Gun analogue at some point after that if possible
- Replacing that with a bolt action Lee-Enfield type avec magazine in an appropriate calibre rimless round around 20-25 years after that
Artillery
What are the short, medium and long term prospects for improved field artillery pieces; and ship cannons?
On land, the short term would lean towards standardisation, light 12pdrs and expedited fielding of the 9pdr (along with the residual 6pdrs for the time being), 24pdr howitzers and introduction of the shrapnel shell.
In the medium term, some sort of Rifled Muzzle Loader would seem to be in order, with the earlier introduction of very capable rifles outranging some historical artillery pieces in some circumstances; being able to push artillery out to the ~3200 yard range is useful.
In the long term, the likes of the Armstrong Gun and all RBLs beckons, with the reliability issue to be ironed out, along with use of the de Bange obturator. What would make this possible is something referred to upthread - earlier expansion of steel production to drive the technology forward.
The first interrupted screw breach was patented in 1845 by Benjamin Chambers in America, so with that patent and some ‘stacking’ of development in metallurgy, there should possibly be a path forward to at least experimenting with it after 1820-1825, with a view towards implementing it down the line. Certainly the De Bange obdurator could be seen/utilised a lot earlier than 1872.
At sea, it would seem that an early shell gun/Paixhans gun, development and initial production of the 68pdr, rollout of the carronades and the completion of the full introduction of gunlocks are the most obvious short solutions over the 1795-1815 period. The ships carrying them would be typical 1st, 2nd and 3rd rate ships of the line, a few 4th rates designed to outmatch any 44 gun frigates or equivalent, and a lot of frigates.
Similar to land, there would then a shift over the medium term (1815-1835) towards RMLs of various conversions and new construction, akin to the 64pdrs of @ and perhaps larger weapons.
Ideally, after that period, there will then be a relatively capable and mature RBL armament that can be put in place on the ships that then enter service in the very late 1830s and 1840s, which in very broad and very vague terms would be something like the child of a union between Warrior and the Magenta class ironclads
Naval Development
- The Age of Sail reached its apotheosis in the Napoleonic Wars, but it is the relatively slow transition afterward that I’m interested in contracting
- After the end of the major warfare period in 1815, we see the gradual introduction of Paixhans/shell guns in the 1840s being the precursor of the end of wooden ships; and the development of the screw propellor and the subsequent useful steam frigates and steam battleships of the 1840s and 1850s respectively
- That interim 35-40 years didn’t see a great deal of advances, aside from the more minor ones, such as the 68pdrs et al. With foreknowledge, advances in technology, the small matter of consistently larger budgets (begat of a stronger economy) and cumulative developments, I’d like to see that period that spanned 1815-1850 in @ substantially contracted
- This might result in some anomalous developments, such as more screw battleships, or even the evolution of a distinct different type of intermediate ship, but it is difficult to fully map without clear signposts
- Once shell guns become viable, they can be copied by other states, as they aren’t generational weapons per se. They drive the necessity for the incorporation of steam propulsion to control the range of any battle
- Once we start talking ironclads, then we separate the men from the boys. Without a decent iron industry, a foreign competitor state/navy is simply not going to be able to produce the necessary armour plate et al
- As of 1815, the naval balance will be much better than the historical RN position, with better yet to come
- A very broad and shaky aim is to get the confluence of advanced to allow a steamship with screw propellor by 1815-1820 at the latest vs 1838, with steam frigates then steam liners/line of battle ships to follow 2 and 4-5 years or so after that
- A Paixhans shell gun by 1810 would be a goal from a 1794 kick off
- The guns, both shell guns and larger 68pdrs, tend to militate against the utility of continuing 3rd rate construction as a type beyond the immediate war. There seems to be more utility in larger two and three decker 1st and 2nd rates; a two decker 90 gun ship beats out a 74
- Indeed, the utility of counting guns as a measure of the importance of a ship starts to shift as we introduce new guns and types
- There is perhaps something to be said of the desirability of enticing competitors into investing a great deal of time, treasure and effort into building a conventional fleet of sail ships of the line and frigates when some leaps forward are coming up, unbeknownst to them
- I mentioned an ‘intermediate’ ship earlier, and envisage it potentially as something in the niche of a large frigate with a role of ‘cruizing’, which then develops into the steam cruiser, armoured steam cruiser and then a distinct cruiser line of development
- One type that is out on the horizon as a parallel to the torpedo boat or destroyer of its era: the steam gunboat
- After a period of steam liners, the aim would be to take the next jump to ironclads. Rather than 1859, there would be some resonance for getting a Warrior analogue ready for 1836, should there be a new Queen that year…
Books
Among other things, they have:
- A lot (and I mean hundreds) of articles and reports harvested off JSTOR (one of my own hobbies)
- All of the 1810 (4th) , 1815 (5th), 1823 (6th), 1842 (7th), 1853-60 (8th) 1875-1889 (9th), 1902-03 (10th and of course the good old 1911 Britannica
- Weather records
- Mineralogical Surveys
- Assorted Ship/Aircraft/Vehicle/Small Arms/Artillery Design Specs
- A complete version of all 46 volumes of Warship in hard copy
- The Principles and Practice of Medicine, Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine, Davidson's Principles and Practice of Medicine, Gray's Anatomy, Gray's Anatomy for Students, Hurst's The Heart, Schwartz's Principles of Surgery
- The modern practice of coal mining (1907)
- A lot of popular science texts and a range of school text books on maths, science and geography from the 1990s
- Janes Fighting Ships
- Janes All the World's Aircraft
- Conways All the World's Fighting Ships
- A veritable library full of historical, military and technical books
General Opportunities
- A considerably earlier end to the French Revolutionary/Napoleonic Wars
- Development of British railways and canals can be tweaked and nudged in certain ways
- The moves against the slave trade and slavery can potentially occur in a more expedited fashion
- There is some potential for different Corn Laws being put in place at some stage
- Relations with the United States can progress on a slightly different trajectory
- The Concert of Europe can potentially be maintained in a better manner
- The entire Irish Question can turn out differently, long, long before any sense of a famine that won't occur (among the seeds and stuff he has in the garden and shed are half a dozen blight resistant varieties of potato...)
- Canada, Australia, South Africa, Argentina and New Zealand can all develop along different lines with certain opportunities taken
- Company and eventually British rule in India can shift towards a different trajectory
- China could be opened earlier, and perhaps with a different role for opium
- The Suez and Panama Canals
- Combine knowledge of antiseptics, hand washing/hygiene and germ theory with antibiotics (eventually), along with 'great leaps forward' in medicine generally (see Note 1)
- Africa won't quite be scrambled for in the same fashion and there won't be anywhere near the same Mfecane
- The likelihood of the same development of Marx, the Communist Manifesto and other ideas 54 years down from the PoD is unlikely
- Making the lives of ordinary men, women and children, British and non-British, just that little bit more gentle
- The 1794 British national debt is ~ £250 million...there will be some things at play here...
Rifles
- The first aim will be to get a version of a Pattern 1853 Enfield rifled musket in production in 4-5 years
- Coming with the House/Bletchley Park are 5 examples of the Pattern 1853, detailed schematics of the same, pictures and lists of parts of the Pattern 1853, the 2011 Osprey monograph, a copy of ‘Knowing the Enfield’, a copy of ‘The English Cartridge’ and this book https://www.ds-militarybooks.com/SAIS-N ... and-Snider
- The P1853 would be initially tested with the Rifle regiments (guess who...)
- Pattern 1853 as service ‘musket’ with the ‘Sharpe's Rifle’ taking its place with the Rifles (a Sharps rifle copy) by 1805ish
- Their replacement at some point in the 15-20 year period after the Arrival with something like the Snider-Enfield or the Martini-Henry , along with a hand powered proto Gatling Gun analogue at some point after that if possible
- Replacing that with a bolt action Lee-Enfield type avec magazine in an appropriate calibre rimless round around 20-25 years after that
Artillery
What are the short, medium and long term prospects for improved field artillery pieces; and ship cannons?
On land, the short term would lean towards standardisation, light 12pdrs and expedited fielding of the 9pdr (along with the residual 6pdrs for the time being), 24pdr howitzers and introduction of the shrapnel shell.
In the medium term, some sort of Rifled Muzzle Loader would seem to be in order, with the earlier introduction of very capable rifles outranging some historical artillery pieces in some circumstances; being able to push artillery out to the ~3200 yard range is useful.
In the long term, the likes of the Armstrong Gun and all RBLs beckons, with the reliability issue to be ironed out, along with use of the de Bange obturator. What would make this possible is something referred to upthread - earlier expansion of steel production to drive the technology forward.
The first interrupted screw breach was patented in 1845 by Benjamin Chambers in America, so with that patent and some ‘stacking’ of development in metallurgy, there should possibly be a path forward to at least experimenting with it after 1820-1825, with a view towards implementing it down the line. Certainly the De Bange obdurator could be seen/utilised a lot earlier than 1872.
At sea, it would seem that an early shell gun/Paixhans gun, development and initial production of the 68pdr, rollout of the carronades and the completion of the full introduction of gunlocks are the most obvious short solutions over the 1795-1815 period. The ships carrying them would be typical 1st, 2nd and 3rd rate ships of the line, a few 4th rates designed to outmatch any 44 gun frigates or equivalent, and a lot of frigates.
Similar to land, there would then a shift over the medium term (1815-1835) towards RMLs of various conversions and new construction, akin to the 64pdrs of @ and perhaps larger weapons.
Ideally, after that period, there will then be a relatively capable and mature RBL armament that can be put in place on the ships that then enter service in the very late 1830s and 1840s, which in very broad and very vague terms would be something like the child of a union between Warrior and the Magenta class ironclads
Naval Development
- The Age of Sail reached its apotheosis in the Napoleonic Wars, but it is the relatively slow transition afterward that I’m interested in contracting
- After the end of the major warfare period in 1815, we see the gradual introduction of Paixhans/shell guns in the 1840s being the precursor of the end of wooden ships; and the development of the screw propellor and the subsequent useful steam frigates and steam battleships of the 1840s and 1850s respectively
- That interim 35-40 years didn’t see a great deal of advances, aside from the more minor ones, such as the 68pdrs et al. With foreknowledge, advances in technology, the small matter of consistently larger budgets (begat of a stronger economy) and cumulative developments, I’d like to see that period that spanned 1815-1850 in @ substantially contracted
- This might result in some anomalous developments, such as more screw battleships, or even the evolution of a distinct different type of intermediate ship, but it is difficult to fully map without clear signposts
- Once shell guns become viable, they can be copied by other states, as they aren’t generational weapons per se. They drive the necessity for the incorporation of steam propulsion to control the range of any battle
- Once we start talking ironclads, then we separate the men from the boys. Without a decent iron industry, a foreign competitor state/navy is simply not going to be able to produce the necessary armour plate et al
- As of 1815, the naval balance will be much better than the historical RN position, with better yet to come
- A very broad and shaky aim is to get the confluence of advanced to allow a steamship with screw propellor by 1815-1820 at the latest vs 1838, with steam frigates then steam liners/line of battle ships to follow 2 and 4-5 years or so after that
- A Paixhans shell gun by 1810 would be a goal from a 1794 kick off
- The guns, both shell guns and larger 68pdrs, tend to militate against the utility of continuing 3rd rate construction as a type beyond the immediate war. There seems to be more utility in larger two and three decker 1st and 2nd rates; a two decker 90 gun ship beats out a 74
- Indeed, the utility of counting guns as a measure of the importance of a ship starts to shift as we introduce new guns and types
- There is perhaps something to be said of the desirability of enticing competitors into investing a great deal of time, treasure and effort into building a conventional fleet of sail ships of the line and frigates when some leaps forward are coming up, unbeknownst to them
- I mentioned an ‘intermediate’ ship earlier, and envisage it potentially as something in the niche of a large frigate with a role of ‘cruizing’, which then develops into the steam cruiser, armoured steam cruiser and then a distinct cruiser line of development
- One type that is out on the horizon as a parallel to the torpedo boat or destroyer of its era: the steam gunboat
- After a period of steam liners, the aim would be to take the next jump to ironclads. Rather than 1859, there would be some resonance for getting a Warrior analogue ready for 1836, should there be a new Queen that year…
Books
Among other things, they have:
- A lot (and I mean hundreds) of articles and reports harvested off JSTOR (one of my own hobbies)
- All of the 1810 (4th) , 1815 (5th), 1823 (6th), 1842 (7th), 1853-60 (8th) 1875-1889 (9th), 1902-03 (10th and of course the good old 1911 Britannica
- Weather records
- Mineralogical Surveys
- Assorted Ship/Aircraft/Vehicle/Small Arms/Artillery Design Specs
- A complete version of all 46 volumes of Warship in hard copy
- The Principles and Practice of Medicine, Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine, Davidson's Principles and Practice of Medicine, Gray's Anatomy, Gray's Anatomy for Students, Hurst's The Heart, Schwartz's Principles of Surgery
- The modern practice of coal mining (1907)
- A lot of popular science texts and a range of school text books on maths, science and geography from the 1990s
- Janes Fighting Ships
- Janes All the World's Aircraft
- Conways All the World's Fighting Ships
- A veritable library full of historical, military and technical books
General Opportunities
- A considerably earlier end to the French Revolutionary/Napoleonic Wars
- Development of British railways and canals can be tweaked and nudged in certain ways
- The moves against the slave trade and slavery can potentially occur in a more expedited fashion
- There is some potential for different Corn Laws being put in place at some stage
- Relations with the United States can progress on a slightly different trajectory
- The Concert of Europe can potentially be maintained in a better manner
- The entire Irish Question can turn out differently, long, long before any sense of a famine that won't occur (among the seeds and stuff he has in the garden and shed are half a dozen blight resistant varieties of potato...)
- Canada, Australia, South Africa, Argentina and New Zealand can all develop along different lines with certain opportunities taken
- Company and eventually British rule in India can shift towards a different trajectory
- China could be opened earlier, and perhaps with a different role for opium
- The Suez and Panama Canals
- Combine knowledge of antiseptics, hand washing/hygiene and germ theory with antibiotics (eventually), along with 'great leaps forward' in medicine generally (see Note 1)
- Africa won't quite be scrambled for in the same fashion and there won't be anywhere near the same Mfecane
- The likelihood of the same development of Marx, the Communist Manifesto and other ideas 54 years down from the PoD is unlikely
- Making the lives of ordinary men, women and children, British and non-British, just that little bit more gentle
- The 1794 British national debt is ~ £250 million...there will be some things at play here...
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Simon, may I offer one small piece of hopefully constructive criticism?
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Absolutely you can; it might be possible that it has already been addressed during the three years of research and planning or through commentary elsewhere.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Simon -
I originally took the "Arrival" to be due to some kind of technological handwavium from mid 21st century. The actual means are unimportant to the stories you are proposing.
While one would expect the geological resources to not have been depleted from two and a half centuries of exploitation, I don't get how they project being able to extract double the resources. What is the mechanism for "expanding" the resources? Is it that they've selected a universe that has similar developments for humanity, but started from a more geologically enhanced earth, or is there something else I don't get? Is it that the improved tech for extraction they've brought back with them what will lead to doubling the recoveries of the resources?
Thanks
Belushi TD
I originally took the "Arrival" to be due to some kind of technological handwavium from mid 21st century. The actual means are unimportant to the stories you are proposing.
While one would expect the geological resources to not have been depleted from two and a half centuries of exploitation, I don't get how they project being able to extract double the resources. What is the mechanism for "expanding" the resources? Is it that they've selected a universe that has similar developments for humanity, but started from a more geologically enhanced earth, or is there something else I don't get? Is it that the improved tech for extraction they've brought back with them what will lead to doubling the recoveries of the resources?
Thanks
Belushi TD
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
The means are something a fair bit darker and murkier than that, hence the tone of regret/horror at some point. There is a hint that it wasn’t technological alone, and in any event, it was a one way trip.
Without going into too much detail this early, the resources were effectively siphoned off their own (defeated) planet. Resources weren’t the only price, as it were.
There is some indication that there were other costs; that they are something more than men; and that there is some sense of drive in their motivation to improve the past/increase development, rather than the traditional empty approach.
Without going into too much detail this early, the resources were effectively siphoned off their own (defeated) planet. Resources weren’t the only price, as it were.
There is some indication that there were other costs; that they are something more than men; and that there is some sense of drive in their motivation to improve the past/increase development, rather than the traditional empty approach.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
I’m sure it has, and it’s nothing you’ve not said yourself before- just to be aware that making your protagonists too powerful may reduce dramatic tension.Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:48 pm Absolutely you can; it might be possible that it has already been addressed during the three years of research and planning or through commentary elsewhere.
Not something you’ve ever been guilty of before, I hasten to add!
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
That is absolutely a factor to be considered.
The nature of the playing cards related titles (reshuffled, loaded deck) refers to it being very clear from the beginning that this isn’t a “Situation Normal ISOT” of a single man (it never is a woman) going back with knowledge and sometimes a laptop.
It isn’t the other end of the scale, where the invincible protagonist goes back in time several times, amasses a Brobdignagian fortune, brings a darn nuclear submarine along and yet still can’t manage to change a thing.
There has to be a balance, and there has to be a threat large enough to warrant the loaded deck. Here, there is a considerable task ahead: to set the British Empire on an altogether different trajectory.
Whilst there are currently quite a few major opponents and peer threats, the nature of technological uplift will eventually clear that from the board. There won’t be the conventional military/security threat from that stage, but this was never going to be and hopefully will never be a war or war based tale alone. Dramatic tension will come not through those direct means, but through others.
A parallel would be a fictional film about Mr. T in his early 80s pomp. If the plot was about him beating up quadriplegics in the boxing ring, then there wouldn’t be dramatic tension. If it were about him rebuilding relationships, raising a family and turning around a broken neighbourhood, then the big muscles, the Hollywood dollars and the gold aren’t going to be as important.
The advantages - knowledge, gold, medicine and resources - all work in different ways.
As a bit of the spoiler, the gold in the cellar will keep appearing every morning until a curious ‘downtimer’ breaks ‘the Agreement’ and opens the chest during the night, an action which (akin to looking behind the curtain in The Wizard of Oz) stops the largesse appearing. This is a theme in a few myths and fairytales that I’m interested in exploring - Man’s curiosity screwing a good thing up.
The role of the gold is essentially a plot device - to cover the current wars and reduce the national debt to a pittance. This is because I’m interested in the challenge and the opportunity of a 19th century Britain without that particular albatross hanging around its neck.
The resources will take a long time to come into play, but will boost development many, many decades down the line.
Finally, there is always a catch, and here it is this: when you open a door long enough, sometimes some uninvited presences can slip in. Now, when you are dealing with something as innocuous as a house door on a summer night, that can be limited to flies, mosquitoes, or, if you dwell in the more bracing parts of Australia, a snake. A pathway through time and space is something not really innocuous, and requires a lot of energy, which acts as a figurative mile-wide spotlight turned skyward for *anything else* that might be ‘out there’.
Long story short, there are multiple avenues which I’m going to try and employ to avoid the overpowered protagonist cliche, in addition to the nature of the story not being necessarily centred around that perceived power.
The nature of the playing cards related titles (reshuffled, loaded deck) refers to it being very clear from the beginning that this isn’t a “Situation Normal ISOT” of a single man (it never is a woman) going back with knowledge and sometimes a laptop.
It isn’t the other end of the scale, where the invincible protagonist goes back in time several times, amasses a Brobdignagian fortune, brings a darn nuclear submarine along and yet still can’t manage to change a thing.
There has to be a balance, and there has to be a threat large enough to warrant the loaded deck. Here, there is a considerable task ahead: to set the British Empire on an altogether different trajectory.
Whilst there are currently quite a few major opponents and peer threats, the nature of technological uplift will eventually clear that from the board. There won’t be the conventional military/security threat from that stage, but this was never going to be and hopefully will never be a war or war based tale alone. Dramatic tension will come not through those direct means, but through others.
A parallel would be a fictional film about Mr. T in his early 80s pomp. If the plot was about him beating up quadriplegics in the boxing ring, then there wouldn’t be dramatic tension. If it were about him rebuilding relationships, raising a family and turning around a broken neighbourhood, then the big muscles, the Hollywood dollars and the gold aren’t going to be as important.
The advantages - knowledge, gold, medicine and resources - all work in different ways.
As a bit of the spoiler, the gold in the cellar will keep appearing every morning until a curious ‘downtimer’ breaks ‘the Agreement’ and opens the chest during the night, an action which (akin to looking behind the curtain in The Wizard of Oz) stops the largesse appearing. This is a theme in a few myths and fairytales that I’m interested in exploring - Man’s curiosity screwing a good thing up.
The role of the gold is essentially a plot device - to cover the current wars and reduce the national debt to a pittance. This is because I’m interested in the challenge and the opportunity of a 19th century Britain without that particular albatross hanging around its neck.
The resources will take a long time to come into play, but will boost development many, many decades down the line.
Finally, there is always a catch, and here it is this: when you open a door long enough, sometimes some uninvited presences can slip in. Now, when you are dealing with something as innocuous as a house door on a summer night, that can be limited to flies, mosquitoes, or, if you dwell in the more bracing parts of Australia, a snake. A pathway through time and space is something not really innocuous, and requires a lot of energy, which acts as a figurative mile-wide spotlight turned skyward for *anything else* that might be ‘out there’.
Long story short, there are multiple avenues which I’m going to try and employ to avoid the overpowered protagonist cliche, in addition to the nature of the story not being necessarily centred around that perceived power.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Some Collated Notes to Show Background Thinking (and to prod reaction) [Part the First]
Prospective Military Conflicts:
1.) First and foremost, there are the broad FRW, which will likely branch out to include Spain, and somewhat less likely to extend to Denmark-Norway. The main thrust of initial reforms and armament decisions will be largely dictated by the aim of victory here. There will be operations in Europe, the Med, the Windies, South America and the Far East.
2.) At the same time, it is very likely that there will be another war with the Maratha Confederacy in India.
3.) It is possible that there will be some sort of conflict between the USA and the British Empire due to unresolved issues/abutting interests, even as the direct circumstances that lead to 1812 aren’t likely to raise their head.
4.) Following on from these conflicts likely in 1794-1815, there will probably be a range of potential wars around the edges of British India - the Kandyan Wars in Ceylon, the Anglo-Nepalese War and the first moves towards Burma.
5.) There will likely be similar or greater British involvement in the Barbary Wars, whenever they kick off. The basis of interests in the suppression of that threat are too broad for them not to occur.
6.) Advice will be given to limit, as long and as far as possible, the sale of muskets by British and Australian traders to the various Māori groups. It won’t be possible to stop it happening in the medium term, but delaying the acquisition of even muskets can have a positive impact on the course of the Musket Wars. When NZ is settled/colonised, the forces operating there will likely have a more substantive overmatch in weapons technology, which can possibly/hopefully limit the scope, intensity and duration of later Māori Wars/Land Wars.
7.) Something will likely come up in Southern Africa, both in terms of a similar conflict to the @ Xhosa War and some issues with the proto Boers/Trekkers, and possible action against the nascent Zulus to circumvent, as far as possible, the bloodshed of the Mfecane. Addressing some of those issues earlier can prevent them simmering for decades and then boiling over later.
8.) Greece will likely be supported in her war of independence, as it was historically, but perhaps with a bit broader aims, looking towards the circumstances of the Eastern Med and the emergence of Egypt.
9.) An early start will be made to the suppression of the slave trade, with as much vigour as can be mustered. The wickedness of what occurred before the 1794 PoD cannot be changed or made up for, but things can most certainly be done better.
10.) It is difficult to forecast conflicts and wars beyond ~ 30 years after the PoD/ISOT event, as there will be substantive cascading changes rippling by this time.
Military Prospects
- In 1794-1810, there will likely be forces equipped with rifled muskets and slightly improved artillery, along with a handful of special ‘toys’ (small numbers of 20th century weapons) and small numbers of “Sharpe’s Rifles” equipping specific units
- The next stage of armament will be, as discussed upthread, the gradual development and introduction of breachloading rifles, repeating rifles, revolvers, better artillery and proto Gatlings. Forces equipped with that generation of weapons will likely have much better performance against the Zulus than an @ British Army, to pick out one example
- By the time we reach the ‘era of the question mark’, or more unknown potential conflicts, there will be further developments in service rifles and artillery, with the advent of longer ranged, faster firing steel breachloaders, as well as further developments of the Gatling ace in the hole
- I’m being fairly broad in terms of generations of armaments and fairly generic in terms of actual conflicts, as it will depend on what ways the storyline develops, and whether there is any interest as it develops (15 years’ experience in the Writer’s Forum has taught me to take nothing for granted)
- The further we go, the more change that will compound. Having aerial reconnaissance in some circumstances of conflicts that occurred in @ between 1850 and 1900 would cause a notable level of difference, for example
British Army thoughts
- Introduction of new service weapons/rifles will drive the introduction of different unit organisation, tactics, TOEs and consequently drill and training. What starts with a small change on a battlefield level reverberates backwards, sideways and up
- In turn, this will be accompanied by a fairly consistent rate of change, given the combination of an artificially kickstarted economy and technology, foreknowledge, secondary sources and the extra direct finance to do something about all of the immediately aforementioned factors. This will contrast to the essentially static British Army of 1815-1840, to use an example of a 25 year/1 generation period where there were only very minor and incremental changes
- If we look at the next generation after that, historically, we saw the introduction of the Pattern 1851 Minie and Pattern 1853 Enfield; the shrinking of the shako and replacement of the coatee with the tunic; the brief advent of the Armstrong Gun; and various other peripheral changes. However, by and large, the British Army of 1865 was not entirely unrecognisable from that of the epoch of Waterloo, with a host of accompanying caveats
- That won't be On the Cards here
- It is more likely that not only the pace of change will remain fairly constant, but that this will have an effect on the nature of the Army at large. There will be far less scope for it to be under the dominance of old Die Hards opposed to change
- At this point, it is worth canvassing that what emerges over multiple generations of cumulative change will be something different not just in equipment and philosophy, but also quite possibly in form and shape/size. There is an enormous caveat here that any force structure will depend on where I end up developing the story in terms of antagonists and threats, but with that in mind, it is possible to see a larger Army than what historically developed and became general practice during the 19th Century. Possible, but by no means definite
- One fundamental factor that will drive much to do with the Army is something similar to some other areas: The goal will be to get out in front, through the artificial measures made possible by the ISOT, and then progressively extend this lead over time. When rival armies during the FRW use muskets, there will be an introduction of the rifled musket and improved artillery; when they subsequently move to catch up, the next step up will be, as mentioned upthread, further improved cannons, Gatling Guns and breach loading rifles; then steel RBLs akin to Armstrongs/Krupps, Maxims and bolt action magazine rifles. The one constant is that the Rest of the World will seek to catch up; resting at any point will allow them to do so and negate one significant part of British advantage
- In terms of the Army, this advantage will permit rather smaller field forces to take on and defeat larger 'downtime' forces, be they European, Asian, African or otherwise
Royal Navy thoughts
- In every case, the Army will need the Navy to get them there. An advanced RN with the advantage of knowing the exact paths to take (and thus cancelling out the need for a great deal of exploration and experimentation) can not only concentrate its forces, but also concentrates its efforts, its funding and its building capacity
- It will not be enough to simply emulate @, but just a little earlier, but rather to perfect the best bits of @ development; add in appropriate paths not taken for good measure; and to take advantage of the confluence of opportunity, technology and a lack of tangible opposition
- What does this look like? Historically, we can look at the collated RN ironclads from Warrior to Devastation, which, spread out across various types, came to 17 broadside ironclads, 14 central battery ironclads, Monarch and Captain and 5 coastal defence ironclads. This covered the period 1861-1874. Over a corresponding ~ 12 year period, there would be an aim for a minimum of 42 'Warrior* type ironclads', or an average of 3.5 per year @ ~ £450,000
- Very often on this site, other sites and in AH in general, we get caught up in the technicalities of Gun X or Engine Y, but what is perhaps more significant is how the overall fleet is used, over multiple campaigns and years to impact wider policy. Here, having several dozen ironclads in the 1840s whilst the French, Russians, Americans and what not are still working with wooden sailing ships of the line and perchance a smattering of steam liner conversions is much greater than historical dominance
- A lovely ship can exert a lovely amount of force at sea in terms of how it can control an area, but the extra cherry on top is being able to project power inland through her guns
The Arms Behind the Army
- Neither the Army nor the RN, nor any other military force, will be able to properly function without that essential marriage of supporting elements: political will/strength, industrial capacity and depth, economic/financial coffers and technological knowhow
- Better economic growth through half a hundred 'stacking' factors creates a larger economy that can support strong, capable military forces in meaningful numbers
- Better fiscal policies, strong public finances and a more modern understanding of economics and budgeting can deliver the funds from said larger economy, particularly without one rather specific albatross on the figurative back of the nation
- The inter-relationship of industrial development and technology is one thing that has shone through my research on this thread and elsewhere. Some advances seem considerable, but when broken down into relatively straightforward steps over time, much can be achieved
- A single company could achieve a lot, but would be fundamentally limited by its nature and scope. 'Uplifting' a significant nation state that is already in the early heady throes of an Industrial Revolution permits the process to take place not just in one area or industry, but across an entire country
- Some changes, policies and moves made in the early stages will not appear to pay off, either to figures within the story or to readers, but some seeds will take a while to develop
- With the right moves and policies, so many of the ideologies, issues and conflicts that have blighted the last two and a bit centuries can have their trajectories profoundly altered. The Clean Dozen/the Travelers won't be entirely benign or doing things for purely altruistic reasons/'for all mankind', but there will be a not inconsiderable amount of cross-over between British interests and those ends, particularly as time goes by and more influence can be applied...
- There is a fascinating degree of interplay between society/social development of various kinds and the development of culture that I'd really like to explore; for example, having some different sports introduced will have some effects off field, just as sports are affected by social developments beyond the boundary. I don't seek to resolve this particular chicken and egg question, but to use it as one means of exploring things
- How art, literature, music and what we blithely term 'popular culture' develop will be very interesting. As of 1794, it isn't necessarily written that the future of popular music will be largely shaped by an offshoot of jazz and ragtime, for example
The Old Ancient Evil from the Dawn of Time - France
- The French invasion of Egypt and Syria of 1798 was in part due to Napoleon, but not completely so; there was enough thought going around amongst others in positions of power at the time to contemplate it. Weighed up against that is the circumstance whereby the French Mediterranean Campaign of 1798 was permitted in no small part due to Bonaparte's victory in Italy
- In the theoretical absence of Bonaparte, there are a number of other quite capable French commanders who could emerge, albeit not quite to the extent of Boney, with Massena coming to mind. Even if Bonaparte is off the scene earlier, there are other who could provide some measure of ambitious military leadership
- My first preference was to definitely move to capture Bonaparte as he tried to scarper from Egypt, leaving his army behind, and take him off the board prior to the 18 Brumaire and all that, but there is a certain attraction to an earlier opportunity...
- One flow on from that would be a different situation in Italy, with a continuing Republic of Venice
- Given the scope and aim of the story, setting up a contrived French opposition in the initial FRW period isn't the primary priority
- In any event, with strategic warning from the beginning of 1794, the ability to build ships and the funds to do so, there is scope to put the RN in general in a better position for any goings on in the Eastern Mediterranean
- By the by, I'm not necessarily inferring that Bonaparte will be killed off or anything like that. Whilst I'm not averse to historical figures meeting a sticky end for storyline purposes (having an idea for Hitler to possibly end up inside a wicker man in Fall and Rise), that isn't for every figure; he might not become Emperor, nor even serve France, but there is enough potential to at least consider working him in some respect
- Broadly speaking, without the extension provided by the transition into the French Empire, it is possible that the French Revolutionary Wars might burn out by the period 1805-1810. This will have some flow on effects, meaning that the circumstances that lead to the @ War of 1812 will likely not be on the cards; there is still scope for some sort of clash of British and American interests in the general time period of 1795-1820ish, but it will depend on a lot of other variables
- The impact of an earlier peace will be quite interesting, considering the subsequent years up to ~ 1815 vs the @ 1815-1820 period
- No matter what happens when, there will still be some sort of depression in the late 1810s because of the impact of 1816 on the British and European economies, which were still quite marked by the rhythms of agriculture and the harvests
- There is of course scope to prepare, to a small extent, for what will happen. In this, as in quite a few other known events or trends in the short and medium term, the utility of future knowledge will be reasonably significant. Once we move into the long term, beyond 1840 or so (or close enough to 2 generations, each of 20 years), then developments begin to become less certain; it is unlikely there will be the same bad harvest of 1846 and the Panic of 1847 contributing to 1848 being a notable year, for example
Food
- ‘Encouraging’ an earlier development of fish and chips is certainly an aim, possibly with other components to the classic components of the meal
- The full English breakfast will develop a bit differently, particularly as Georgian breakfasts were markedly different to the Victorian and Edwardian evolutions
- We shall see the creation of a few new dishes along the way, both from my own RL recipes and following on from some disappeared historical recipes
- In addition to encouraging the adaption of certain street foods into British cuisine, some other influences will spread through cookbooks, articles and being ‘showcased’, such as meatballs (both in their spherical Swedish variation and the more flattened frikadeller type from Denmark)
- The vertical rotisserie and subsequent @ kebabs/doner/yiros will come out of Britain a bit earlier than mid 19th century Ottoman Turkey
- Similarly, schnitzel will have a bit of an earlier ‘birth’/preemptive theft, and develop into various forms of breaded meat; a much earlier emergence of parmigiana (including a tomato sauce underneath melted cheese and some element of bacon, but not ham slices as done in Victoria, as that is yucky heresy straight from Lucifer’s own kitchen)
- A standard combination that will emerge will be meat and 3-4 vegetables, plus potatoes, developing something a bit more culinarily interesting (and probably nutritious) as well as circumventing later lewd use of the @ term
- Spaghetti, albeit with a different name, will develop a bit earlier (insofar as the modern, ‘industrial’ variety is concerned, as the word has been around for half a dozen centuries to this point in 1794), and, as an in-joke, the tool used to create it will be called a ‘tree’…
More random thought bubbles:
- Have swords come back into fashion as part of a gentleman’s attire
- Work in some variations upon the Grand Tour
- Make some nudges towards a unified system of meat cut nomenclature across the English speaking world, formalising what is meant by a sirloin, keeping the rump steak in the American lexicon and avoiding the Frenchified pronunciation of fillet
- Work in some different hats, including some returning from past popularity; consider the success of Walter Scott and his chums in other fashion areas
- Longer hair, along the lines of the early Regency period, might become fashionable
- The Glorious First of June will likely be a bit more glorious
- Beethoven might get enticed to another country, and have something done to his ear (perhaps a fish…)
- I have a notion of having Beethoven and later Wagner listen to some Iron Maiden, Rainbow, Ayreon and Rhapsody…
Foreign Policy
- France is, at this time, the enemy. The immediate goal would be to defeat the Revolutionary government and work towards some sort of restoration of the pre 1789 European situation, with the restoration of the young King being a ‘stretch goal’. A France without Bonaparte taking power will be a different one, to say the least. After peace, a Congress of Vienna analogue and some sort of settlement, policy would shift towards that of trade and as amicable relations as can be achieved, given France’s location and size/power/interest combination make it quite the foe. Some of her later colonial expansion will be preempted, but not that in North Africa; that is a bit enough meal to keep them chewing for some time
- Prussia is at this point more often a British ally than rival, but there is knowledge of her potential growth into the dominant German power. To that end, keeping Prussia as an ‘Eastern German’ state as much as is possible would be viewed as advantageous
- It is likely that the HRE will transition towards a different entity, with or without the Napoleonic coup de grace. A policy which works towards the ‘Germanies’ rather than a single Germany does have some attraction. Balancing out the major states (Prussia, Baden, Bavaria, Saxony, Wurtemburg, Mecklenburg-Schwerin, Hesse, Nassau and Oldenburg) will be an interesting task, with the Rhineland area ideally not going to Prussia, but to independent Westphalian and Rhineland-Palatinate states. Hannover will eventually leave the personal union due to Salic Law, but keeping it close, along with the rest of Western Germany, would be an advantage
- Permanently butterflying resolution of the German Question is unlikely, but it is difficult to map out events ~ 3 generations out from the PoD with ironclad certainty
- Austria is a useful collaborator in some respects, but her interests might differ in some areas. At best, she can be an entity that Britain can work with to counterbalance Russia
- Engineering some sort of Italian Confederation out of the FRW would be an interesting difference, but a lot of pieces would need to fall into place
- Spain holds a lot of areas that Britain will either want to snap up or see independent as markets. Beyond that, seeing Spain not become the relative sick man of Western Europe and remaining among the front rank of the powers would be interesting…
- Russia is the most obvious medium and long term rival, given the clash of interests over the Eastern Question and the broader Near East. Restricting Russian expansion (no Finland at a minimum and hopefully something with regard to Poland) is a likely aim, along with constraining their abilities to expand in the southern direction. As mentioned upthread, Central Asia/the heartland of the Great Game should not be won over by Russia so easily. In addition to the territorial interest clashes, the Russian Empire is possessed of the most profoundly anti-liberal/reactionary philosophical underpinnings, compounding the issues. Should dependence on Russian trade of certain goods/commodities be replaced by other sources, so much the better
- Sweden, by virtue of her position and general opposition to Russia, is a natural British potential partner, even ally. If they keep Finland, then the Baltic situation is shifted in a more advantageous direction. Their supply of various ores and timber can be valuable in the early days of the IR. A potential piece in the puzzle, even if Sweden's days as a Great Power are behind them
- A restored United Netherlands will be quite the buffer state, useful market and partner in various ways; divided Belgium and the Netherlands become much smaller, less formidable obstacles. Certain future areas of DEI expansion, such as Sumatra and Borneo, are likely to be on the 'British list' as well, involving some sort of preemption. It goes without saying that the Cape Colony, Ceylon and Dutch West Africa are on the chopping block
- Ottoman Turkey was historically a British ally of sorts for much of the 19th century, or rather, it ended up on the same side as Britain in opposition to the designs of Russia. There is little that they realistically offer in 1794 beyond the status quo and the accompanying cachet of residual authority, with the Greek Revolution very much on the near horizon and attracting a great deal of amicable support on political/ideological grounds, among others. The Ottoman position in Rumelia in general is the potential cause for considerable trouble with Russia and Austria. The importance of holding at the Straits against Russia somewhat dissipates once Britain takes control of Egypt/the Suez Canal, further detracting from the figurative points in the Sublime Porte's favour
- Persia under the early Qajars isn't too advanced, but is a bit too large to take, especially without precipitating a conflict with the Russians
- As referred to on a few occasions, opening China earlier is a goal, very preferably without opium. That will lead to an earlier acquisition of Hong Kong (with properly expansive boundaries) and another entrepot somewhere around Shanghai, getting various treaty ports opened and working for markets
- Japan, still in deep isolation, being opened somewhat earlier may or may not lead to the exact same Meiji Restoration parallel, but relations with Japan will be configured with a certain part of an eye on the future, and specifically to prevent the emergence of certain troublesome tendencies. Having a Japanese Hong Kong could be interesting, if needing a lot of ducks to get into an unlikely row
- Portugal is an old ally, but one that has some areas of future difference with Britain. Precluding the Pink Map affair through earlier expansion removes one area of conflict, whilst grabbing Delagoa Bay very early will also work towards useful ends. Buying the Azores would be useful, along with a few other islands here and there
- Denmark-Norway, aside from the conflict coinciding with the FRW/NW, is a generally friendly state. Coming to some arrangement for the purchase of the Faroes, Iceland and Greenland, in addition to the Danish Gold Coast and Danish West Indies, could be an area of interest, with the cryolite mines having potential
There aren't a great number of significant independent states above and beyond the above, with many of the smaller states not really meriting distinct pre-planned policy approaches as of the mid 1790s.
The smaller Italian and German states are generally covered within the broad outlines above, with appropriate room for flexibility - for example, backing the Two Sicilies as a Southern Italian bulwark against the French may well be a worthwhile short term strategy, without permanently tying British policy towards backing of the Bourbon monarchy there beyond the current wars. For the time being, supporting the principle of an Italian confederation of a number of parts would likely provide the advantage of available markets without the potential issue of a single independent entity in the Central Mediterranean
- In the Mediterranean, the maximal ambition would be for the Balearic Isles, Corsica, Malta (and nearby small islands such as Pantalleria), the Ionian Islands, Rhodes and Cyprus
- In the Indian Ocean, there would not seem to be particularly compelling arguments for the return of Reunion or giving the opportunity for the French to later claim the Comoros/Mayotte
- The Pacific is wide open as of 1794, with plenty of islands open to be claimed, including Clipperton, the Galapagos, Easter Island and the Revillagigedo Islands (with the latter perhaps suited to a theme park for cloned dinosaurs )
- Related to that idea of the Pacific Islands, knowing exactly where the Bounty mutineers went will simplify an expedition to apprehend every man jack of the survivors, and, in the process, change the future of Pitcairn from a dark far off episode...
- Insofar as it is possible, what would be the earliest date for a Slave Trade Act and a subsequent Slavery Abolition Act?
- Hampering the rise of Boney beginning at the Whiff of Grapeshot is possible, but there is potentially more certainty from the Egyptian option
- Robespierre sticking around is unlikely, but interesting; the regicides will eventually get their comeuppance
- A unified Low Countries/UK of the Netherlands that lasts will make for a much more effective buffer state than the Netherlands or Belgium in their own right, albeit one much less likely to be screened behind the protection of internationally recognised neutrality
- The Old Swiss Confederacy may not yet be the subject of a French invasion; in any event, there are paths for different types of state to follow it in the backlash against any sort of republican entity
- With the 1790s starting date, quite a few of the dominant 'isms' of the 19th and 20th centuries can be butterflied or changed irrevocably, along with other significant ideological trends, such as that emerging in the Arabian Peninsula at this time
Several of the key shibboleths of 19th century British politics and foreign affairs are either aren’t as likely here or may occur under very different circumstances:
- The basis for ‘Splendid Isolation’ may not come about in precisely the same way, with disengagement from the Concert of Europe not really leading to the best outcomes from Britain’s perspective in the medium term. It is still likely that, eventually, Britain will shift the focus of her gaze from the Continent to the world, but it won’t be a direct expressway
- The Eastern Question will likely get a different answer. Propping up the Ottomans did not result in a useful ally, market or buffer, but rather ending up on the other side of a bloody war. If the end goal is a different result to a paradigm with a messy Balkans acting as a trigger to other tensions, then there is a argument that different measures should be considered. Broadly speaking, backing the Greeks for a larger Rumelian entity is one option, including Constantinople, whilst the other end of Ottoman possessions can be chewed away
- Russia is the most likely Big Bad, and some sort of Great Game is likely, but it will kick off earlier, and be won much more decisively. Circassia provides something of a pretext/trigger
- Having Sweden keep Finland opens up some interesting options in Scandinavia
- The notion that the British Army starts off conflicts as outnumbered, poorly armed/outgunned and with their backs to the wall doesn’t have to be the only path forward, just as there isn’t a need for it to be hidebound/backward in relation to technology
- Some sort of balance of power can be maintained in Europe with a bit of deft handling and strategy. France, Spain, a couple of Italian states, Austria, (united) Netherlands, Sweden, Russia, some sort of Polish state, Mega Greece, Portugal, Bavaria, Prussia and ten smaller German states is one possible combo
A few more ideas/points stormed from the brain:
- John McAdam will be given a few ideas to improve his road building material ideas
- Development of the idea of power stations (and turbines) will come earlier than the 1880s
- Around the World in 80 Days might have a real ‘race’ component to it, once the various elements needed for it are in place
- There will, in due course in the very long term, be a Severn Barrage project in the 19th Century, with interesting potential results/ opportunities
- In addition to the Master of the King’s Music and Poet Laureate, Astronomer Royal and other honourary positions in the Royal Household, there will be a few others, such as Architect Royal, Royal Chef, an author/writer, gardener, scientist, artist, historian and other roles
- There will be relatively fewer rookeries and slums that arise during the initial 19th century urbanisation, leading to a reduced subsequent requirement for slum clearance
- With a survival of Albert past 1861, the 'Widow at Windsor' period of Queen Victoria's reign will take on a distinctly different style and feel; getting some different education and role modelling into the Pragger Wagger will be interesting
- There will be an earlier and extended epoch of the airship, with the word 'zeppelin' never entering into the general international lexicon
- With slight cumulative changes, several battles will have different results, impacting on how they are marked in popular culture. This will mean that there will be a different Charge of the Light Brigade by Tennyson, a Vitai Lampada by Sir Henry Newbolt, Fuzzy-Wuzzy and The Young British Soldier by Kipling and Zulu, for starters
- Opening China to British trade will be seen as a goal, but not doing so through the trade of opium would be absolutely desirable, in order to make for a morally preferable outcome. Thoughts on this would be welcome
- Taking different courses of action in India (such as in regard to the Doctrine of Lapse), different policies over a few generations and removing some of the immediate triggers to the @ Mutiny, with the general aim to be a more smooth and rounded transition from Company Rule to Crown rule, as well as avoiding some of the mistakes made by the HEIC during their 19th century period of control
- There will be some thought to organising India into Bombay, Madras, Bengal, Punjab and Agra presidencies, along with the chief princely states
- Broadly speaking, getting a jump on the Russian Empire insofar as the Great Game is concerned would shift its nexus further away from British India
- In terms of military organisation, there will be an earlier move from the early 19th century/Napoleonic divisional structure of 2 brigades (each with 3-4 battalions) to the larger one of 3 brigades (each of 4 battalions); there will additionally be changes to the structure and nomenclature of the Royal Artillery
- There will be an earlier reintroduction/conversion of light dragoon regiments to lancers and hussars, along with another light/medium cavalry type. Additionally, there will be some thought given to expansion of cuirassiers and heavies, to create a light/medium/heavy split
- Whilst mortars won't replace field artillery as some suggested upthread, there is a role for lightweight updated Coehorn types in certain tactical scenarios. These won't replace the battalion guns/infantry guns, which will evolve over time, but still remain to provide organic firepower to infantry battalions in concert with Gatling guns and later evolutions
- The Congreve rocket will come along earlier, with the improvements added by Hale incorporated in their initial design
- Some developments will drive something more of an evangelical revival
- There won't be a parallel to the outlawing of privateering in the 1850s, and possibly not at all
- AGA cookers will appear ~90 years early
- There is the potential for a couple of states in the Southern Cone...
- A bit of a solution to the Chinese opium situation - have the Travelers arrive with tea seeds suitable for planting in Darjeeling and Assam so as to circumvent the early 19th century Chinese monopoly on tea production. This would obviate one of the drivers for the opium trade before it occurred, whilst not getting rid of the issue altogether, unfortunately
- Turning in a slightly different direction, we have the matter of Ireland
- With a 1794 start date, it is unlikely that 1798, or the underlying issues, will be avoided
- From there, the aim would be for Catholic Emancipation as soon as politically possible, and working for progress in the treatment and conditions of the Irish people
- With 50 years to work the butterflies of new crops, there will likely not be anywhere near the same experience of potato blight and the Great Famine
- There is scope for a lot of migration from Ireland over time that isn’t driven by the same necessity and desperation; there would still be a lot of the natural necessity and desperation found in every European country in the 19th century
- Without giving away the nature of all the rabbits in the figurative hat, there will be some things that keep some of that potential migrant population in Ireland
- With a different first half of the 1800s, it is possible that there won’t be quite the same drivers that lead to the @ Home Rule movement
- The bottom line is that real change will take time and won’t be down to 1, 2 or 5 changes to this or that
- On industry, historically, Britain in 1850 produced 2/3rds of the world’s coal and half of the world’s cotton textiles and iron. The aim will be to better that, in terms of hitting the mark earlier, doing it for longer and even raising those percentages/levels in the process
- That will entail the flow on from changes made from the 1790s onwards, Bessemer from ~ the 1810s, some of the ASB resource changes and, as for Ireland, the cumulative impact of changes upon changes upon changes
- Pushing free trade during the pomp of British manufacturing makes a great deal of sense, with some key parts of this approach to be informed by what is known of historical @ developments, policies and tariff protection employed by other rival states
- Getting a jump in certain industries will be useful, but being able to anticipate and map out where they lead will be even more powerful
https://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/facult ... 2-2005.pdf
Both for reference and an example of one of more simple texts that will be making the journey back
Stacking
One of the features that I've noticed over the years of research for this project is the value of 'stacking', or having multiple opportunities/individuals/inventions/knowledge combine into something greater still than the sum of their individual parts.
The classic case of this is what is referred to in the most recent academic link above, whereby steam power, advances in textile manufacture/spinning machines and iron combined to kickstart the First IR, then further developments in iron and steel let loose the railway boom and its consequent impact upon transportation of goods and prices.
There look to be opportunities to pursue this virtuous outcome through the aid of cheating/foreknowledge, the natural pace of knowledge development and some of the paths not taken. Picturing what Brunel and Stephenson could accomplish with the aid of Babbage engines, an earlier expansion of steel production driven by the Bessemer process and even a system for turning out more engineers and skilled draftsmen is an interesting idea.
The Opportunity of Peace
What does allow for the maximal development of technology and the civilian economy is peace and the absence of the overwhelming pressure of war. The cost of the FRW/NW hung over Britain in the 19th Century like a malign spectre, with the interest bill on the national debt being a truly major annual expenditure.
For example, in 1850, the interest bill was 28.5 million pounds. Defence came to 15.5 million pounds and all other central government expenditure came to 8.1 million. Economic growth over the 19th century shrank the value of the interest bill as a percentage of GDP, but it stuck pretty consistently around that 28-30 million mark until the latter half of the 1880s.
A shorter FRW period, by its very nature, will make for reduction in overall debt levels; when combined with some other particular features of the ASB contrivance, this will delivery a fiscally very, very different picture for Britain.
More Miscellaneous Fun and Games
- The discipline of archaeology will get a huge shot in the arm, not just through knowledge of where to look, but how to act and dig, We likely won't see the profligate use of dynamite here
- Troy, Mohenjo-daro, Macchu Picchu, Egyptian tombs, the Nazca Lines, the Dead Sea Scrolls, Easter Island, Tiwanaku, Çatal Hüyük, Göbekli Tepe and many many more will see some much earlier moves, likely after the development of photography
- Without the particular exigencies of the Canadian Rebellions of 1837/38, one Samuel Edison Jr is very unlikely to flee to Ohio, where his son Thomas was born in 1847
- Setting up a process of international scholarships/headhunting will provide a potential path for Nikola Tesla to end up in Britain
- There will be some interesting soil experiments that take place under the auspices of one of The Twelve (The Farmer)
- Pushing the envelope in chemistry will be driven initially by a need for fertilisers, with a view towards either pushing Wohler to an earlier artificial/synthetic development of urea, or someone else 'coming to the same process'. Putting Nicholson, Bennet, Dalton, Berzelius and Lavoisier in the same institution with funding and appropriate nudges will render some results
- Volta will merit an invitation to England in the absence of Boney
- Joseph Banks has some potential in a number of areas
- There is likely a basis for a Harvest Thanksgiving festival/holiday taking form in Britain, in some nudges as well as some conveniently timed associated victory celebrations
- With various inventions and technologies coming into play earlier, there will likely be some earlier bleeding over into foreign countries, in a case of the rising level of the bathtub floating all the toy boats that bit higher. However, in some cases, there won't be the viability for some sectors spreading quite quickly, entrenching that little bit of advantage
- Every time that others look like catching up, there will be a new burst of acceleration
Economics and Growth
British GDP OTL, with data drawn directly from Angus Maddison's effective work on historical GDPs in 1990 USD from 1820 onwards. For 1794-1820, I've taken the GDP figures from UK Public Spending , then adjusting using the inflation calculator here (https://www.officialdata.org/uk/inflation/ ), then converting to 1990 USD using the December 1990 $: £ rate of 1: 1.89
1794: 22,345 million
1795: 24,609 million
1796: 24,259 million
1797: 27,060 million
1798: 29,168 million
1799: 28,682 million
1800: 24,028 million
1801: 22,855 million
1802: 25,778 million
1803: 26,842 million
1804: 27,794 million
1805: 26,201 million
1806: 27,534 million
1807: 30,198 million
1808: 28,357 million
1809: 28,346 million
1810: 30,364 million
1811: 29,891 million
1812: 26,730 million
1813: 28,034 million
1814: 30,795 million
1815: 35,461 million
1816: 34,532 million
1817: 31,485 million
1818: 32,696 million
1819: 31,273 million
1820: 34,957 million
1830: 42,228 million (+ 17.22%)
1840: 53,234 million (+ 20.67%)
1850: 63,342 million (+ 15.96%)
1860: 81,760 million (+ 22.53%)
1870: 100,180 million (+ 18.39%)
1880: 120,395 million (+ 16.79%)
1890: 150,269 million (+ 19.88%)
1900: 184,861 million (+ 18.71%)
FWIW, the USA was 12548 in 1820, 18219 in 1830, 27694 in 1840, 42583 in 1850, 69346 in 1860, 98374 in 1870, 160656 in 1880, 214714 in 1890 and 312499 in 1900, or percentage increases of 31.13% in the 1820s, 34.21% in the 1830s, 34.96% in the 1840s, 38.59% in the 1850s, 29.51% in the 1860s, 38.77% in the 1870s, 25.18% in the 1880s and 31.29% in the 1890s.
The inflation/deflation figures will be markedly different, what with different events, different wars and different policies, as well as other factors, but I'll use the general Maddison figures for the convenience of having a baseline figure.
Broad Plan of Economic Growth 'Wayposts'
1.) 1794-1800: Hit ~ a minimum $30,000 million by 1800, with growth not taking a dip with a 1799/1800 depression. 25% vs 7%, or 23.39% from the 1798 peak.
2.) 1800-1810: Reach ~ a minimum of $45,000 million by 1810 through the combination of butterflies/PoDs and resources kicking in; cumulative improvements in agricultural output through new crops and advanced animal breeds; further trade without a Continental System; and general technology approaching an 1820-1825 level in some sectors. Minimum growth of 33.33% vs 24.73%.
3.) 1810-1820: Keeping in mind that the volcanic eruption of 1816 will occur to everyone, there will be an effort to try and make hay whilst the (non volcanic) sun shines from 1810-1815. The FR Wars should be functionally ended by this time, or on the cusp of such, so that there will be the advantages of peace and the disadvantage of an inevitable postwar recession. This will ideally be the last decade where the vagaries of the harvest will have a significant bearing upon GDP. By 1820, general technological levels will be pushing around the late 1830s in some respects, as well as other inventions/areas 'opening up' markedly earlier. By 1820, minimum GDP should be ~ $65,000 million, and net growth in the neighbourhood of 30.77% vs 14.49%
4.) 1820-1830: Combining an earlier start to Railway Mania; better organisation of the earlier Canal Mania; earlier steamships stimulating trade, telegraphy starting to improve communications and other technologies starting to bleed into each other; cumulative improvements in iron and steel, steam engines, coal mining, textiles and machinery/machine tools; cumulative better positions in agricultural production; and exploitation of resources, both known historical ones and those part of the ISOT in order to increase growth to a minimum of 35% vs 17.22% and minimum GDP to ~ $88,000 million
5.) The 1830s will then be broadly equivalent in some ways to the 1850s, or the pomp of the 'Workshop of the World/Great Exhibition' period. Again, the stacking/cumulative impact of many different advances across a range of industries and sectors, increased foreign trade and domestic demand, exploitation of resources (including the first oil deposits), real expansion of the railways, and the latest probable opening of Japan and Korea should work towards net growth of ~ 37% and a GDP of $120,000 million
6.) The 1840s are likely to see a continuation of the growth of the previous decade, with the effective absence of any major concern from the possibility of a potato blight, the lack of the ability of other states to catch up as true competition (whilst still being hungry markets), expanded trade with the Far East, Australasia, North and South America and Africa, the heyday of railway expansion, the opening of a Suez Canal and the rise of petroleum should push net growth above the previous decade to the vicinity of 40% and $170,000 million
Forecasting accurate figures beyond that initial ~50 years is going to be highly speculative, (and something I'll thus leave until there is firstly an actual story at that point and secondly enough basis) but even with the @ 19.26% 1850-1900 average decade growth (which is unlikely to be directly replicated and quite possible to exceed), it would then be pushing around 1950 levels in 1900. The cumulative power of growth, even factoring in the likely occurrence of recessions, depressions and wars, is quite interesting.
Environments
Building effective sewer systems in London and elsewhere will not only permit cities to grow beyond size 12 (Civ II reference in 2024), but will act to improve public health by reducing disease vectors. In the case of London, not only will it be earlier, but it will be a bit more 'future proofed' for increased population.
Rat control is probably going to be something assisted by poisons rather than the older solutions of trained animals; certainly if a bloke rocks up with a pipe claiming to be able to charm rats, he will be politely but firmly turned away.
Forest restoration is something close to my heart, and can be engineered through something like the naval forest of Visingsö to begin with, followed by other measures to preserve other wooded areas. In addition to general preservation as preserves and very early national parks, there will also be some degree of afforestation and reforestation to provide for commercial timber plantations in the future. Working towards preserving hedgerows and preventing any rise of Dutch elm disease is going to be a small side interest of one of the twelve travelers; there is no point having a rich country if all is turned into dark satanic mills, so that there is a certain sense to pursuing a 'green and pleasant land'.
Invasive species are always worth watching out for, but some of the biggies aren't in Britain so much as the colonies; I've mentioned rabbits in Australia and cane toads, I believe.
Nothing wrong with preserving historical monuments, although a lot of castles were sadly slighted during the ECW.
They will be arriving with very accurate records of major natural disasters from 1794 through to the 2020s, which will allow for some amelioration of the shock effect of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. The big one on the near horizon is the April-July 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, which will trigger the 'Year Without a Summer'. Whilst stockpiling grain and food will ameliorate some of the immediate effects in the British Isles, I'd be very interested in any other ideas and suggestions as to how to approach that particular event.
Floods (such as the North Sea Flood of 1953) and more man-made issues such as the Great Smog can be either addressed way before they occur or their worst effects prevented through proper preparation. On the flip side of floods, we have droughts, which can be planned for and minimised through the Grand Contour Canal in Britain. In Australia, circumstances will be markedly different, with things being more a matter of breeding drought resistant crops and working margins a bit more effectively. However, in both cases, having the benefit of foreknowledge of historical rainfall will allow for some, ahem, preternaturally accurate weather forecasting that will help to reduce the shock/uncertainty associated with drought.
Prospective Military Conflicts:
1.) First and foremost, there are the broad FRW, which will likely branch out to include Spain, and somewhat less likely to extend to Denmark-Norway. The main thrust of initial reforms and armament decisions will be largely dictated by the aim of victory here. There will be operations in Europe, the Med, the Windies, South America and the Far East.
2.) At the same time, it is very likely that there will be another war with the Maratha Confederacy in India.
3.) It is possible that there will be some sort of conflict between the USA and the British Empire due to unresolved issues/abutting interests, even as the direct circumstances that lead to 1812 aren’t likely to raise their head.
4.) Following on from these conflicts likely in 1794-1815, there will probably be a range of potential wars around the edges of British India - the Kandyan Wars in Ceylon, the Anglo-Nepalese War and the first moves towards Burma.
5.) There will likely be similar or greater British involvement in the Barbary Wars, whenever they kick off. The basis of interests in the suppression of that threat are too broad for them not to occur.
6.) Advice will be given to limit, as long and as far as possible, the sale of muskets by British and Australian traders to the various Māori groups. It won’t be possible to stop it happening in the medium term, but delaying the acquisition of even muskets can have a positive impact on the course of the Musket Wars. When NZ is settled/colonised, the forces operating there will likely have a more substantive overmatch in weapons technology, which can possibly/hopefully limit the scope, intensity and duration of later Māori Wars/Land Wars.
7.) Something will likely come up in Southern Africa, both in terms of a similar conflict to the @ Xhosa War and some issues with the proto Boers/Trekkers, and possible action against the nascent Zulus to circumvent, as far as possible, the bloodshed of the Mfecane. Addressing some of those issues earlier can prevent them simmering for decades and then boiling over later.
8.) Greece will likely be supported in her war of independence, as it was historically, but perhaps with a bit broader aims, looking towards the circumstances of the Eastern Med and the emergence of Egypt.
9.) An early start will be made to the suppression of the slave trade, with as much vigour as can be mustered. The wickedness of what occurred before the 1794 PoD cannot be changed or made up for, but things can most certainly be done better.
10.) It is difficult to forecast conflicts and wars beyond ~ 30 years after the PoD/ISOT event, as there will be substantive cascading changes rippling by this time.
Military Prospects
- In 1794-1810, there will likely be forces equipped with rifled muskets and slightly improved artillery, along with a handful of special ‘toys’ (small numbers of 20th century weapons) and small numbers of “Sharpe’s Rifles” equipping specific units
- The next stage of armament will be, as discussed upthread, the gradual development and introduction of breachloading rifles, repeating rifles, revolvers, better artillery and proto Gatlings. Forces equipped with that generation of weapons will likely have much better performance against the Zulus than an @ British Army, to pick out one example
- By the time we reach the ‘era of the question mark’, or more unknown potential conflicts, there will be further developments in service rifles and artillery, with the advent of longer ranged, faster firing steel breachloaders, as well as further developments of the Gatling ace in the hole
- I’m being fairly broad in terms of generations of armaments and fairly generic in terms of actual conflicts, as it will depend on what ways the storyline develops, and whether there is any interest as it develops (15 years’ experience in the Writer’s Forum has taught me to take nothing for granted)
- The further we go, the more change that will compound. Having aerial reconnaissance in some circumstances of conflicts that occurred in @ between 1850 and 1900 would cause a notable level of difference, for example
British Army thoughts
- Introduction of new service weapons/rifles will drive the introduction of different unit organisation, tactics, TOEs and consequently drill and training. What starts with a small change on a battlefield level reverberates backwards, sideways and up
- In turn, this will be accompanied by a fairly consistent rate of change, given the combination of an artificially kickstarted economy and technology, foreknowledge, secondary sources and the extra direct finance to do something about all of the immediately aforementioned factors. This will contrast to the essentially static British Army of 1815-1840, to use an example of a 25 year/1 generation period where there were only very minor and incremental changes
- If we look at the next generation after that, historically, we saw the introduction of the Pattern 1851 Minie and Pattern 1853 Enfield; the shrinking of the shako and replacement of the coatee with the tunic; the brief advent of the Armstrong Gun; and various other peripheral changes. However, by and large, the British Army of 1865 was not entirely unrecognisable from that of the epoch of Waterloo, with a host of accompanying caveats
- That won't be On the Cards here
- It is more likely that not only the pace of change will remain fairly constant, but that this will have an effect on the nature of the Army at large. There will be far less scope for it to be under the dominance of old Die Hards opposed to change
- At this point, it is worth canvassing that what emerges over multiple generations of cumulative change will be something different not just in equipment and philosophy, but also quite possibly in form and shape/size. There is an enormous caveat here that any force structure will depend on where I end up developing the story in terms of antagonists and threats, but with that in mind, it is possible to see a larger Army than what historically developed and became general practice during the 19th Century. Possible, but by no means definite
- One fundamental factor that will drive much to do with the Army is something similar to some other areas: The goal will be to get out in front, through the artificial measures made possible by the ISOT, and then progressively extend this lead over time. When rival armies during the FRW use muskets, there will be an introduction of the rifled musket and improved artillery; when they subsequently move to catch up, the next step up will be, as mentioned upthread, further improved cannons, Gatling Guns and breach loading rifles; then steel RBLs akin to Armstrongs/Krupps, Maxims and bolt action magazine rifles. The one constant is that the Rest of the World will seek to catch up; resting at any point will allow them to do so and negate one significant part of British advantage
- In terms of the Army, this advantage will permit rather smaller field forces to take on and defeat larger 'downtime' forces, be they European, Asian, African or otherwise
Royal Navy thoughts
- In every case, the Army will need the Navy to get them there. An advanced RN with the advantage of knowing the exact paths to take (and thus cancelling out the need for a great deal of exploration and experimentation) can not only concentrate its forces, but also concentrates its efforts, its funding and its building capacity
- It will not be enough to simply emulate @, but just a little earlier, but rather to perfect the best bits of @ development; add in appropriate paths not taken for good measure; and to take advantage of the confluence of opportunity, technology and a lack of tangible opposition
- What does this look like? Historically, we can look at the collated RN ironclads from Warrior to Devastation, which, spread out across various types, came to 17 broadside ironclads, 14 central battery ironclads, Monarch and Captain and 5 coastal defence ironclads. This covered the period 1861-1874. Over a corresponding ~ 12 year period, there would be an aim for a minimum of 42 'Warrior* type ironclads', or an average of 3.5 per year @ ~ £450,000
- Very often on this site, other sites and in AH in general, we get caught up in the technicalities of Gun X or Engine Y, but what is perhaps more significant is how the overall fleet is used, over multiple campaigns and years to impact wider policy. Here, having several dozen ironclads in the 1840s whilst the French, Russians, Americans and what not are still working with wooden sailing ships of the line and perchance a smattering of steam liner conversions is much greater than historical dominance
- A lovely ship can exert a lovely amount of force at sea in terms of how it can control an area, but the extra cherry on top is being able to project power inland through her guns
The Arms Behind the Army
- Neither the Army nor the RN, nor any other military force, will be able to properly function without that essential marriage of supporting elements: political will/strength, industrial capacity and depth, economic/financial coffers and technological knowhow
- Better economic growth through half a hundred 'stacking' factors creates a larger economy that can support strong, capable military forces in meaningful numbers
- Better fiscal policies, strong public finances and a more modern understanding of economics and budgeting can deliver the funds from said larger economy, particularly without one rather specific albatross on the figurative back of the nation
- The inter-relationship of industrial development and technology is one thing that has shone through my research on this thread and elsewhere. Some advances seem considerable, but when broken down into relatively straightforward steps over time, much can be achieved
- A single company could achieve a lot, but would be fundamentally limited by its nature and scope. 'Uplifting' a significant nation state that is already in the early heady throes of an Industrial Revolution permits the process to take place not just in one area or industry, but across an entire country
- Some changes, policies and moves made in the early stages will not appear to pay off, either to figures within the story or to readers, but some seeds will take a while to develop
- With the right moves and policies, so many of the ideologies, issues and conflicts that have blighted the last two and a bit centuries can have their trajectories profoundly altered. The Clean Dozen/the Travelers won't be entirely benign or doing things for purely altruistic reasons/'for all mankind', but there will be a not inconsiderable amount of cross-over between British interests and those ends, particularly as time goes by and more influence can be applied...
- There is a fascinating degree of interplay between society/social development of various kinds and the development of culture that I'd really like to explore; for example, having some different sports introduced will have some effects off field, just as sports are affected by social developments beyond the boundary. I don't seek to resolve this particular chicken and egg question, but to use it as one means of exploring things
- How art, literature, music and what we blithely term 'popular culture' develop will be very interesting. As of 1794, it isn't necessarily written that the future of popular music will be largely shaped by an offshoot of jazz and ragtime, for example
The Old Ancient Evil from the Dawn of Time - France
- The French invasion of Egypt and Syria of 1798 was in part due to Napoleon, but not completely so; there was enough thought going around amongst others in positions of power at the time to contemplate it. Weighed up against that is the circumstance whereby the French Mediterranean Campaign of 1798 was permitted in no small part due to Bonaparte's victory in Italy
- In the theoretical absence of Bonaparte, there are a number of other quite capable French commanders who could emerge, albeit not quite to the extent of Boney, with Massena coming to mind. Even if Bonaparte is off the scene earlier, there are other who could provide some measure of ambitious military leadership
- My first preference was to definitely move to capture Bonaparte as he tried to scarper from Egypt, leaving his army behind, and take him off the board prior to the 18 Brumaire and all that, but there is a certain attraction to an earlier opportunity...
- One flow on from that would be a different situation in Italy, with a continuing Republic of Venice
- Given the scope and aim of the story, setting up a contrived French opposition in the initial FRW period isn't the primary priority
- In any event, with strategic warning from the beginning of 1794, the ability to build ships and the funds to do so, there is scope to put the RN in general in a better position for any goings on in the Eastern Mediterranean
- By the by, I'm not necessarily inferring that Bonaparte will be killed off or anything like that. Whilst I'm not averse to historical figures meeting a sticky end for storyline purposes (having an idea for Hitler to possibly end up inside a wicker man in Fall and Rise), that isn't for every figure; he might not become Emperor, nor even serve France, but there is enough potential to at least consider working him in some respect
- Broadly speaking, without the extension provided by the transition into the French Empire, it is possible that the French Revolutionary Wars might burn out by the period 1805-1810. This will have some flow on effects, meaning that the circumstances that lead to the @ War of 1812 will likely not be on the cards; there is still scope for some sort of clash of British and American interests in the general time period of 1795-1820ish, but it will depend on a lot of other variables
- The impact of an earlier peace will be quite interesting, considering the subsequent years up to ~ 1815 vs the @ 1815-1820 period
- No matter what happens when, there will still be some sort of depression in the late 1810s because of the impact of 1816 on the British and European economies, which were still quite marked by the rhythms of agriculture and the harvests
- There is of course scope to prepare, to a small extent, for what will happen. In this, as in quite a few other known events or trends in the short and medium term, the utility of future knowledge will be reasonably significant. Once we move into the long term, beyond 1840 or so (or close enough to 2 generations, each of 20 years), then developments begin to become less certain; it is unlikely there will be the same bad harvest of 1846 and the Panic of 1847 contributing to 1848 being a notable year, for example
Food
- ‘Encouraging’ an earlier development of fish and chips is certainly an aim, possibly with other components to the classic components of the meal
- The full English breakfast will develop a bit differently, particularly as Georgian breakfasts were markedly different to the Victorian and Edwardian evolutions
- We shall see the creation of a few new dishes along the way, both from my own RL recipes and following on from some disappeared historical recipes
- In addition to encouraging the adaption of certain street foods into British cuisine, some other influences will spread through cookbooks, articles and being ‘showcased’, such as meatballs (both in their spherical Swedish variation and the more flattened frikadeller type from Denmark)
- The vertical rotisserie and subsequent @ kebabs/doner/yiros will come out of Britain a bit earlier than mid 19th century Ottoman Turkey
- Similarly, schnitzel will have a bit of an earlier ‘birth’/preemptive theft, and develop into various forms of breaded meat; a much earlier emergence of parmigiana (including a tomato sauce underneath melted cheese and some element of bacon, but not ham slices as done in Victoria, as that is yucky heresy straight from Lucifer’s own kitchen)
- A standard combination that will emerge will be meat and 3-4 vegetables, plus potatoes, developing something a bit more culinarily interesting (and probably nutritious) as well as circumventing later lewd use of the @ term
- Spaghetti, albeit with a different name, will develop a bit earlier (insofar as the modern, ‘industrial’ variety is concerned, as the word has been around for half a dozen centuries to this point in 1794), and, as an in-joke, the tool used to create it will be called a ‘tree’…
More random thought bubbles:
- Have swords come back into fashion as part of a gentleman’s attire
- Work in some variations upon the Grand Tour
- Make some nudges towards a unified system of meat cut nomenclature across the English speaking world, formalising what is meant by a sirloin, keeping the rump steak in the American lexicon and avoiding the Frenchified pronunciation of fillet
- Work in some different hats, including some returning from past popularity; consider the success of Walter Scott and his chums in other fashion areas
- Longer hair, along the lines of the early Regency period, might become fashionable
- The Glorious First of June will likely be a bit more glorious
- Beethoven might get enticed to another country, and have something done to his ear (perhaps a fish…)
- I have a notion of having Beethoven and later Wagner listen to some Iron Maiden, Rainbow, Ayreon and Rhapsody…
Foreign Policy
- France is, at this time, the enemy. The immediate goal would be to defeat the Revolutionary government and work towards some sort of restoration of the pre 1789 European situation, with the restoration of the young King being a ‘stretch goal’. A France without Bonaparte taking power will be a different one, to say the least. After peace, a Congress of Vienna analogue and some sort of settlement, policy would shift towards that of trade and as amicable relations as can be achieved, given France’s location and size/power/interest combination make it quite the foe. Some of her later colonial expansion will be preempted, but not that in North Africa; that is a bit enough meal to keep them chewing for some time
- Prussia is at this point more often a British ally than rival, but there is knowledge of her potential growth into the dominant German power. To that end, keeping Prussia as an ‘Eastern German’ state as much as is possible would be viewed as advantageous
- It is likely that the HRE will transition towards a different entity, with or without the Napoleonic coup de grace. A policy which works towards the ‘Germanies’ rather than a single Germany does have some attraction. Balancing out the major states (Prussia, Baden, Bavaria, Saxony, Wurtemburg, Mecklenburg-Schwerin, Hesse, Nassau and Oldenburg) will be an interesting task, with the Rhineland area ideally not going to Prussia, but to independent Westphalian and Rhineland-Palatinate states. Hannover will eventually leave the personal union due to Salic Law, but keeping it close, along with the rest of Western Germany, would be an advantage
- Permanently butterflying resolution of the German Question is unlikely, but it is difficult to map out events ~ 3 generations out from the PoD with ironclad certainty
- Austria is a useful collaborator in some respects, but her interests might differ in some areas. At best, she can be an entity that Britain can work with to counterbalance Russia
- Engineering some sort of Italian Confederation out of the FRW would be an interesting difference, but a lot of pieces would need to fall into place
- Spain holds a lot of areas that Britain will either want to snap up or see independent as markets. Beyond that, seeing Spain not become the relative sick man of Western Europe and remaining among the front rank of the powers would be interesting…
- Russia is the most obvious medium and long term rival, given the clash of interests over the Eastern Question and the broader Near East. Restricting Russian expansion (no Finland at a minimum and hopefully something with regard to Poland) is a likely aim, along with constraining their abilities to expand in the southern direction. As mentioned upthread, Central Asia/the heartland of the Great Game should not be won over by Russia so easily. In addition to the territorial interest clashes, the Russian Empire is possessed of the most profoundly anti-liberal/reactionary philosophical underpinnings, compounding the issues. Should dependence on Russian trade of certain goods/commodities be replaced by other sources, so much the better
- Sweden, by virtue of her position and general opposition to Russia, is a natural British potential partner, even ally. If they keep Finland, then the Baltic situation is shifted in a more advantageous direction. Their supply of various ores and timber can be valuable in the early days of the IR. A potential piece in the puzzle, even if Sweden's days as a Great Power are behind them
- A restored United Netherlands will be quite the buffer state, useful market and partner in various ways; divided Belgium and the Netherlands become much smaller, less formidable obstacles. Certain future areas of DEI expansion, such as Sumatra and Borneo, are likely to be on the 'British list' as well, involving some sort of preemption. It goes without saying that the Cape Colony, Ceylon and Dutch West Africa are on the chopping block
- Ottoman Turkey was historically a British ally of sorts for much of the 19th century, or rather, it ended up on the same side as Britain in opposition to the designs of Russia. There is little that they realistically offer in 1794 beyond the status quo and the accompanying cachet of residual authority, with the Greek Revolution very much on the near horizon and attracting a great deal of amicable support on political/ideological grounds, among others. The Ottoman position in Rumelia in general is the potential cause for considerable trouble with Russia and Austria. The importance of holding at the Straits against Russia somewhat dissipates once Britain takes control of Egypt/the Suez Canal, further detracting from the figurative points in the Sublime Porte's favour
- Persia under the early Qajars isn't too advanced, but is a bit too large to take, especially without precipitating a conflict with the Russians
- As referred to on a few occasions, opening China earlier is a goal, very preferably without opium. That will lead to an earlier acquisition of Hong Kong (with properly expansive boundaries) and another entrepot somewhere around Shanghai, getting various treaty ports opened and working for markets
- Japan, still in deep isolation, being opened somewhat earlier may or may not lead to the exact same Meiji Restoration parallel, but relations with Japan will be configured with a certain part of an eye on the future, and specifically to prevent the emergence of certain troublesome tendencies. Having a Japanese Hong Kong could be interesting, if needing a lot of ducks to get into an unlikely row
- Portugal is an old ally, but one that has some areas of future difference with Britain. Precluding the Pink Map affair through earlier expansion removes one area of conflict, whilst grabbing Delagoa Bay very early will also work towards useful ends. Buying the Azores would be useful, along with a few other islands here and there
- Denmark-Norway, aside from the conflict coinciding with the FRW/NW, is a generally friendly state. Coming to some arrangement for the purchase of the Faroes, Iceland and Greenland, in addition to the Danish Gold Coast and Danish West Indies, could be an area of interest, with the cryolite mines having potential
There aren't a great number of significant independent states above and beyond the above, with many of the smaller states not really meriting distinct pre-planned policy approaches as of the mid 1790s.
The smaller Italian and German states are generally covered within the broad outlines above, with appropriate room for flexibility - for example, backing the Two Sicilies as a Southern Italian bulwark against the French may well be a worthwhile short term strategy, without permanently tying British policy towards backing of the Bourbon monarchy there beyond the current wars. For the time being, supporting the principle of an Italian confederation of a number of parts would likely provide the advantage of available markets without the potential issue of a single independent entity in the Central Mediterranean
- In the Mediterranean, the maximal ambition would be for the Balearic Isles, Corsica, Malta (and nearby small islands such as Pantalleria), the Ionian Islands, Rhodes and Cyprus
- In the Indian Ocean, there would not seem to be particularly compelling arguments for the return of Reunion or giving the opportunity for the French to later claim the Comoros/Mayotte
- The Pacific is wide open as of 1794, with plenty of islands open to be claimed, including Clipperton, the Galapagos, Easter Island and the Revillagigedo Islands (with the latter perhaps suited to a theme park for cloned dinosaurs )
- Related to that idea of the Pacific Islands, knowing exactly where the Bounty mutineers went will simplify an expedition to apprehend every man jack of the survivors, and, in the process, change the future of Pitcairn from a dark far off episode...
- Insofar as it is possible, what would be the earliest date for a Slave Trade Act and a subsequent Slavery Abolition Act?
- Hampering the rise of Boney beginning at the Whiff of Grapeshot is possible, but there is potentially more certainty from the Egyptian option
- Robespierre sticking around is unlikely, but interesting; the regicides will eventually get their comeuppance
- A unified Low Countries/UK of the Netherlands that lasts will make for a much more effective buffer state than the Netherlands or Belgium in their own right, albeit one much less likely to be screened behind the protection of internationally recognised neutrality
- The Old Swiss Confederacy may not yet be the subject of a French invasion; in any event, there are paths for different types of state to follow it in the backlash against any sort of republican entity
- With the 1790s starting date, quite a few of the dominant 'isms' of the 19th and 20th centuries can be butterflied or changed irrevocably, along with other significant ideological trends, such as that emerging in the Arabian Peninsula at this time
Several of the key shibboleths of 19th century British politics and foreign affairs are either aren’t as likely here or may occur under very different circumstances:
- The basis for ‘Splendid Isolation’ may not come about in precisely the same way, with disengagement from the Concert of Europe not really leading to the best outcomes from Britain’s perspective in the medium term. It is still likely that, eventually, Britain will shift the focus of her gaze from the Continent to the world, but it won’t be a direct expressway
- The Eastern Question will likely get a different answer. Propping up the Ottomans did not result in a useful ally, market or buffer, but rather ending up on the other side of a bloody war. If the end goal is a different result to a paradigm with a messy Balkans acting as a trigger to other tensions, then there is a argument that different measures should be considered. Broadly speaking, backing the Greeks for a larger Rumelian entity is one option, including Constantinople, whilst the other end of Ottoman possessions can be chewed away
- Russia is the most likely Big Bad, and some sort of Great Game is likely, but it will kick off earlier, and be won much more decisively. Circassia provides something of a pretext/trigger
- Having Sweden keep Finland opens up some interesting options in Scandinavia
- The notion that the British Army starts off conflicts as outnumbered, poorly armed/outgunned and with their backs to the wall doesn’t have to be the only path forward, just as there isn’t a need for it to be hidebound/backward in relation to technology
- Some sort of balance of power can be maintained in Europe with a bit of deft handling and strategy. France, Spain, a couple of Italian states, Austria, (united) Netherlands, Sweden, Russia, some sort of Polish state, Mega Greece, Portugal, Bavaria, Prussia and ten smaller German states is one possible combo
A few more ideas/points stormed from the brain:
- John McAdam will be given a few ideas to improve his road building material ideas
- Development of the idea of power stations (and turbines) will come earlier than the 1880s
- Around the World in 80 Days might have a real ‘race’ component to it, once the various elements needed for it are in place
- There will, in due course in the very long term, be a Severn Barrage project in the 19th Century, with interesting potential results/ opportunities
- In addition to the Master of the King’s Music and Poet Laureate, Astronomer Royal and other honourary positions in the Royal Household, there will be a few others, such as Architect Royal, Royal Chef, an author/writer, gardener, scientist, artist, historian and other roles
- There will be relatively fewer rookeries and slums that arise during the initial 19th century urbanisation, leading to a reduced subsequent requirement for slum clearance
- With a survival of Albert past 1861, the 'Widow at Windsor' period of Queen Victoria's reign will take on a distinctly different style and feel; getting some different education and role modelling into the Pragger Wagger will be interesting
- There will be an earlier and extended epoch of the airship, with the word 'zeppelin' never entering into the general international lexicon
- With slight cumulative changes, several battles will have different results, impacting on how they are marked in popular culture. This will mean that there will be a different Charge of the Light Brigade by Tennyson, a Vitai Lampada by Sir Henry Newbolt, Fuzzy-Wuzzy and The Young British Soldier by Kipling and Zulu, for starters
- Opening China to British trade will be seen as a goal, but not doing so through the trade of opium would be absolutely desirable, in order to make for a morally preferable outcome. Thoughts on this would be welcome
- Taking different courses of action in India (such as in regard to the Doctrine of Lapse), different policies over a few generations and removing some of the immediate triggers to the @ Mutiny, with the general aim to be a more smooth and rounded transition from Company Rule to Crown rule, as well as avoiding some of the mistakes made by the HEIC during their 19th century period of control
- There will be some thought to organising India into Bombay, Madras, Bengal, Punjab and Agra presidencies, along with the chief princely states
- Broadly speaking, getting a jump on the Russian Empire insofar as the Great Game is concerned would shift its nexus further away from British India
- In terms of military organisation, there will be an earlier move from the early 19th century/Napoleonic divisional structure of 2 brigades (each with 3-4 battalions) to the larger one of 3 brigades (each of 4 battalions); there will additionally be changes to the structure and nomenclature of the Royal Artillery
- There will be an earlier reintroduction/conversion of light dragoon regiments to lancers and hussars, along with another light/medium cavalry type. Additionally, there will be some thought given to expansion of cuirassiers and heavies, to create a light/medium/heavy split
- Whilst mortars won't replace field artillery as some suggested upthread, there is a role for lightweight updated Coehorn types in certain tactical scenarios. These won't replace the battalion guns/infantry guns, which will evolve over time, but still remain to provide organic firepower to infantry battalions in concert with Gatling guns and later evolutions
- The Congreve rocket will come along earlier, with the improvements added by Hale incorporated in their initial design
- Some developments will drive something more of an evangelical revival
- There won't be a parallel to the outlawing of privateering in the 1850s, and possibly not at all
- AGA cookers will appear ~90 years early
- There is the potential for a couple of states in the Southern Cone...
- A bit of a solution to the Chinese opium situation - have the Travelers arrive with tea seeds suitable for planting in Darjeeling and Assam so as to circumvent the early 19th century Chinese monopoly on tea production. This would obviate one of the drivers for the opium trade before it occurred, whilst not getting rid of the issue altogether, unfortunately
- Turning in a slightly different direction, we have the matter of Ireland
- With a 1794 start date, it is unlikely that 1798, or the underlying issues, will be avoided
- From there, the aim would be for Catholic Emancipation as soon as politically possible, and working for progress in the treatment and conditions of the Irish people
- With 50 years to work the butterflies of new crops, there will likely not be anywhere near the same experience of potato blight and the Great Famine
- There is scope for a lot of migration from Ireland over time that isn’t driven by the same necessity and desperation; there would still be a lot of the natural necessity and desperation found in every European country in the 19th century
- Without giving away the nature of all the rabbits in the figurative hat, there will be some things that keep some of that potential migrant population in Ireland
- With a different first half of the 1800s, it is possible that there won’t be quite the same drivers that lead to the @ Home Rule movement
- The bottom line is that real change will take time and won’t be down to 1, 2 or 5 changes to this or that
- On industry, historically, Britain in 1850 produced 2/3rds of the world’s coal and half of the world’s cotton textiles and iron. The aim will be to better that, in terms of hitting the mark earlier, doing it for longer and even raising those percentages/levels in the process
- That will entail the flow on from changes made from the 1790s onwards, Bessemer from ~ the 1810s, some of the ASB resource changes and, as for Ireland, the cumulative impact of changes upon changes upon changes
- Pushing free trade during the pomp of British manufacturing makes a great deal of sense, with some key parts of this approach to be informed by what is known of historical @ developments, policies and tariff protection employed by other rival states
- Getting a jump in certain industries will be useful, but being able to anticipate and map out where they lead will be even more powerful
https://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/facult ... 2-2005.pdf
Both for reference and an example of one of more simple texts that will be making the journey back
Stacking
One of the features that I've noticed over the years of research for this project is the value of 'stacking', or having multiple opportunities/individuals/inventions/knowledge combine into something greater still than the sum of their individual parts.
The classic case of this is what is referred to in the most recent academic link above, whereby steam power, advances in textile manufacture/spinning machines and iron combined to kickstart the First IR, then further developments in iron and steel let loose the railway boom and its consequent impact upon transportation of goods and prices.
There look to be opportunities to pursue this virtuous outcome through the aid of cheating/foreknowledge, the natural pace of knowledge development and some of the paths not taken. Picturing what Brunel and Stephenson could accomplish with the aid of Babbage engines, an earlier expansion of steel production driven by the Bessemer process and even a system for turning out more engineers and skilled draftsmen is an interesting idea.
The Opportunity of Peace
What does allow for the maximal development of technology and the civilian economy is peace and the absence of the overwhelming pressure of war. The cost of the FRW/NW hung over Britain in the 19th Century like a malign spectre, with the interest bill on the national debt being a truly major annual expenditure.
For example, in 1850, the interest bill was 28.5 million pounds. Defence came to 15.5 million pounds and all other central government expenditure came to 8.1 million. Economic growth over the 19th century shrank the value of the interest bill as a percentage of GDP, but it stuck pretty consistently around that 28-30 million mark until the latter half of the 1880s.
A shorter FRW period, by its very nature, will make for reduction in overall debt levels; when combined with some other particular features of the ASB contrivance, this will delivery a fiscally very, very different picture for Britain.
More Miscellaneous Fun and Games
- The discipline of archaeology will get a huge shot in the arm, not just through knowledge of where to look, but how to act and dig, We likely won't see the profligate use of dynamite here
- Troy, Mohenjo-daro, Macchu Picchu, Egyptian tombs, the Nazca Lines, the Dead Sea Scrolls, Easter Island, Tiwanaku, Çatal Hüyük, Göbekli Tepe and many many more will see some much earlier moves, likely after the development of photography
- Without the particular exigencies of the Canadian Rebellions of 1837/38, one Samuel Edison Jr is very unlikely to flee to Ohio, where his son Thomas was born in 1847
- Setting up a process of international scholarships/headhunting will provide a potential path for Nikola Tesla to end up in Britain
- There will be some interesting soil experiments that take place under the auspices of one of The Twelve (The Farmer)
- Pushing the envelope in chemistry will be driven initially by a need for fertilisers, with a view towards either pushing Wohler to an earlier artificial/synthetic development of urea, or someone else 'coming to the same process'. Putting Nicholson, Bennet, Dalton, Berzelius and Lavoisier in the same institution with funding and appropriate nudges will render some results
- Volta will merit an invitation to England in the absence of Boney
- Joseph Banks has some potential in a number of areas
- There is likely a basis for a Harvest Thanksgiving festival/holiday taking form in Britain, in some nudges as well as some conveniently timed associated victory celebrations
- With various inventions and technologies coming into play earlier, there will likely be some earlier bleeding over into foreign countries, in a case of the rising level of the bathtub floating all the toy boats that bit higher. However, in some cases, there won't be the viability for some sectors spreading quite quickly, entrenching that little bit of advantage
- Every time that others look like catching up, there will be a new burst of acceleration
Economics and Growth
British GDP OTL, with data drawn directly from Angus Maddison's effective work on historical GDPs in 1990 USD from 1820 onwards. For 1794-1820, I've taken the GDP figures from UK Public Spending , then adjusting using the inflation calculator here (https://www.officialdata.org/uk/inflation/ ), then converting to 1990 USD using the December 1990 $: £ rate of 1: 1.89
1794: 22,345 million
1795: 24,609 million
1796: 24,259 million
1797: 27,060 million
1798: 29,168 million
1799: 28,682 million
1800: 24,028 million
1801: 22,855 million
1802: 25,778 million
1803: 26,842 million
1804: 27,794 million
1805: 26,201 million
1806: 27,534 million
1807: 30,198 million
1808: 28,357 million
1809: 28,346 million
1810: 30,364 million
1811: 29,891 million
1812: 26,730 million
1813: 28,034 million
1814: 30,795 million
1815: 35,461 million
1816: 34,532 million
1817: 31,485 million
1818: 32,696 million
1819: 31,273 million
1820: 34,957 million
1830: 42,228 million (+ 17.22%)
1840: 53,234 million (+ 20.67%)
1850: 63,342 million (+ 15.96%)
1860: 81,760 million (+ 22.53%)
1870: 100,180 million (+ 18.39%)
1880: 120,395 million (+ 16.79%)
1890: 150,269 million (+ 19.88%)
1900: 184,861 million (+ 18.71%)
FWIW, the USA was 12548 in 1820, 18219 in 1830, 27694 in 1840, 42583 in 1850, 69346 in 1860, 98374 in 1870, 160656 in 1880, 214714 in 1890 and 312499 in 1900, or percentage increases of 31.13% in the 1820s, 34.21% in the 1830s, 34.96% in the 1840s, 38.59% in the 1850s, 29.51% in the 1860s, 38.77% in the 1870s, 25.18% in the 1880s and 31.29% in the 1890s.
The inflation/deflation figures will be markedly different, what with different events, different wars and different policies, as well as other factors, but I'll use the general Maddison figures for the convenience of having a baseline figure.
Broad Plan of Economic Growth 'Wayposts'
1.) 1794-1800: Hit ~ a minimum $30,000 million by 1800, with growth not taking a dip with a 1799/1800 depression. 25% vs 7%, or 23.39% from the 1798 peak.
2.) 1800-1810: Reach ~ a minimum of $45,000 million by 1810 through the combination of butterflies/PoDs and resources kicking in; cumulative improvements in agricultural output through new crops and advanced animal breeds; further trade without a Continental System; and general technology approaching an 1820-1825 level in some sectors. Minimum growth of 33.33% vs 24.73%.
3.) 1810-1820: Keeping in mind that the volcanic eruption of 1816 will occur to everyone, there will be an effort to try and make hay whilst the (non volcanic) sun shines from 1810-1815. The FR Wars should be functionally ended by this time, or on the cusp of such, so that there will be the advantages of peace and the disadvantage of an inevitable postwar recession. This will ideally be the last decade where the vagaries of the harvest will have a significant bearing upon GDP. By 1820, general technological levels will be pushing around the late 1830s in some respects, as well as other inventions/areas 'opening up' markedly earlier. By 1820, minimum GDP should be ~ $65,000 million, and net growth in the neighbourhood of 30.77% vs 14.49%
4.) 1820-1830: Combining an earlier start to Railway Mania; better organisation of the earlier Canal Mania; earlier steamships stimulating trade, telegraphy starting to improve communications and other technologies starting to bleed into each other; cumulative improvements in iron and steel, steam engines, coal mining, textiles and machinery/machine tools; cumulative better positions in agricultural production; and exploitation of resources, both known historical ones and those part of the ISOT in order to increase growth to a minimum of 35% vs 17.22% and minimum GDP to ~ $88,000 million
5.) The 1830s will then be broadly equivalent in some ways to the 1850s, or the pomp of the 'Workshop of the World/Great Exhibition' period. Again, the stacking/cumulative impact of many different advances across a range of industries and sectors, increased foreign trade and domestic demand, exploitation of resources (including the first oil deposits), real expansion of the railways, and the latest probable opening of Japan and Korea should work towards net growth of ~ 37% and a GDP of $120,000 million
6.) The 1840s are likely to see a continuation of the growth of the previous decade, with the effective absence of any major concern from the possibility of a potato blight, the lack of the ability of other states to catch up as true competition (whilst still being hungry markets), expanded trade with the Far East, Australasia, North and South America and Africa, the heyday of railway expansion, the opening of a Suez Canal and the rise of petroleum should push net growth above the previous decade to the vicinity of 40% and $170,000 million
Forecasting accurate figures beyond that initial ~50 years is going to be highly speculative, (and something I'll thus leave until there is firstly an actual story at that point and secondly enough basis) but even with the @ 19.26% 1850-1900 average decade growth (which is unlikely to be directly replicated and quite possible to exceed), it would then be pushing around 1950 levels in 1900. The cumulative power of growth, even factoring in the likely occurrence of recessions, depressions and wars, is quite interesting.
Environments
Building effective sewer systems in London and elsewhere will not only permit cities to grow beyond size 12 (Civ II reference in 2024), but will act to improve public health by reducing disease vectors. In the case of London, not only will it be earlier, but it will be a bit more 'future proofed' for increased population.
Rat control is probably going to be something assisted by poisons rather than the older solutions of trained animals; certainly if a bloke rocks up with a pipe claiming to be able to charm rats, he will be politely but firmly turned away.
Forest restoration is something close to my heart, and can be engineered through something like the naval forest of Visingsö to begin with, followed by other measures to preserve other wooded areas. In addition to general preservation as preserves and very early national parks, there will also be some degree of afforestation and reforestation to provide for commercial timber plantations in the future. Working towards preserving hedgerows and preventing any rise of Dutch elm disease is going to be a small side interest of one of the twelve travelers; there is no point having a rich country if all is turned into dark satanic mills, so that there is a certain sense to pursuing a 'green and pleasant land'.
Invasive species are always worth watching out for, but some of the biggies aren't in Britain so much as the colonies; I've mentioned rabbits in Australia and cane toads, I believe.
Nothing wrong with preserving historical monuments, although a lot of castles were sadly slighted during the ECW.
They will be arriving with very accurate records of major natural disasters from 1794 through to the 2020s, which will allow for some amelioration of the shock effect of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. The big one on the near horizon is the April-July 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, which will trigger the 'Year Without a Summer'. Whilst stockpiling grain and food will ameliorate some of the immediate effects in the British Isles, I'd be very interested in any other ideas and suggestions as to how to approach that particular event.
Floods (such as the North Sea Flood of 1953) and more man-made issues such as the Great Smog can be either addressed way before they occur or their worst effects prevented through proper preparation. On the flip side of floods, we have droughts, which can be planned for and minimised through the Grand Contour Canal in Britain. In Australia, circumstances will be markedly different, with things being more a matter of breeding drought resistant crops and working margins a bit more effectively. However, in both cases, having the benefit of foreknowledge of historical rainfall will allow for some, ahem, preternaturally accurate weather forecasting that will help to reduce the shock/uncertainty associated with drought.
Last edited by Simon Darkshade on Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
The idea of the 'Twelve' comes partly from a brief mention in the lyrics of Donovan's Atlantis ('Knowing her fate, Atlantis sent out ships to all corners of the Earth/On board were the Twelve: The poet, the physician, the farmer, the scientist/The magician and the other so-called Gods of our legends') as well as the other notable groups of twelve from history and popular culture.
Some Collated Notes to Show Background Thinking (and to prod reaction) [Part the Second]
We've had Artillery. But What About Second Artillery?
the general artillery plan is:
1.) Light 12pdrs, 9pdrs and 24pdr howitzers in the 1795-1810 period
2.) RMLs from 1810-1815 through the late 1820s/early 1830s, with ranges pushing out to the 2 mile mark, or double that of smoothbore cannon generally employed by competitor states
3.) Armstrong type guns in 12pdr, 24 or 25pdr, 50pdr and 100pdr versions with ranges of 4000-5000 yards in the 1830s-1840s
4.) Going for even longer range guns and howitzers from there, with a combination of technology and knowledge giving the Royal Artillery capabilities that outrange, outweigh and outshoot anything that a putative opponent can potentially bring to bear
5.) Developing non-gun artillery, including rockets and mortars, as appropriate and over time
Agriculture and Food
- Attached to The House/BP is a large potting shed filled with cultivars of modern seed potatoes (from blight resistant varieties); several dozen sacks of various modern (post Green Revolution) wheat, barley, rice and maize seeds. with each sack containing roughly 500 smaller packs of 10,000 seeds; and modern seeds from various fruits and vegetables
- Some of the seed strains coming in with the house will go a reasonable way towards increasing crop yield and calorie output per acre. This won’t deliver modern outputs without the accompanying machinery and fertilisers, but will increase over 1800s varieties markedly, allowing later improvements as mechanisation and use of improved fertilisers becomes possible in the fullness of time. This will help to accentuate the shift from large requirements for agricultural labour and help nudge the surplus manpower to other areas as they open up.
- One historical action that will be strenuously discouraged is the 1859 release of 13 rabbits in Australia, which lead to just a small population increase to 10 billion by 1920 in @, with plentiful costs as a result.
- The development of canned/tinned food saw it become something of a status symbol in the Victorian period, before then filtering down to becoming cheaper and more available for the working classes. Stimulating this process would be particularly advantageous. Developing decent versions of Spam, Loof/Bully Beef and Corned Mutton will have some utility
- Developing MSG is not too great a leap, at the appropriate time, and provides for a way to complement flavour, even before the development of the concept of an 'umami' flavour
- Increasing the amount of beef and pork produced will, in time, stimulate the development of certain street foods, such as hamburger steaks, beefsteak and roast beef sandwiches and hot dogs, along with meat pies, sausage rolls and pasties, with the right nudges and encouragement
- The earlier development and rise of fish and chips could increase its availability to the burgeoning working classes. As and when more chickens are available, some other developments will occur, including peculiar blends of a number of herbs and spices
- Meatloaf will see some different changes and popularised receipts
- The ploughman's lunch will be a bit more of a genuine development here (albeit one planted through encouragement of workers on an estate)
- We shall see the now extinct and mysterious Halford's Leicestershire Sauce in action
- Smoke roasting or barbecuing (in the Southern American sense) will see a British manifestation
- There will be a move away from use of French terminology on menus and in grand cuisine, based on that which historically occurred in the Regency period, but extended and managed
- Peanut butter will be developed a lot earlier
- Laws against food adulteration will see movement rather earlier
- There will be some other dishes that emerge similar to some German/Austrian ones
- Heinz baked beans and tomato ketchup will come earlier, under a different name
- A cola based soft drink will get developed rather earlier
De Royal Navy
As a general outline of 'Warrior to Dreadnought'. I'd see the following types/generations, with the dates being fluid:
Warrior: 1830s prototype broadside ironclad. based on a large ironclad ship of the line vs an ironclad frigate, armed initially with 60+ guns
Devastation: Late 1840s/early 1850s turret ironclad battleship with two 12" turrets and a number of smaller guns
Inflexible: Late 1850s-Early 1860s Larger turret ironclad, introducing some new engines and technologies
'Royal Sovereigns': 1865-Early 1870s 'predreadnoughts' with Harvey steel armour akin to a proto cross between the Majestics and Royal Sovereigns
'Dreadnought': ~Late 1870s-Early 1880s with 'all big gun', steam turbines, 'Vickers armour' (@ Krupp CA)
The historical gaps:
Warrior (1861) - Devastation (1873): 12 years
Devastation (1873) - Inflexible (1881): 8 years (launched 1876, but construction halted April 76-December 77)
Inflexible (1881) - Royal Sovereign (1892): 11 years
Even factoring in the rather extended @ periods, the mooted schedule (which was described as a 'general outline' with an emphasis on dates being fluid) is effectively the same as @. For the bulk of the progression, there is no greater ambition than historical.
There is a faster move towards Dreadnought, but the idea of an all big gun battleship was percolating for a number of years prior to 1904, so that the epoch of the pre-dreadnought proper was short if intense. By that point, there isn't much that will be entirely new in construction terms, but rather putting together pieces, such as turbines, new guns, fire control and more.
The big area of difference is in the timing of Warrior. Historically, she was laid down in 1859, some 16 years after the first RN screw propeller vessel (Rattler), 20 years after the first iron warship (Nemesis) and the first screw propeller steamship (Archimedes), and 18 years after the first naval adoption of the Paixhans shell gun. However, as noted upthread, the shell gun as an idea had been in development from 1824. In terms of general steamships, the first seagoing one was in 1813 and the first Atlantic crossing substantially under steam being the Curacao in 1827. At a minimum, some of the protracted experimental periods can be abbreviated through going for the known best working path, and driving a substantially earlier development and adoption of a screw propeller.
The aim for Warrior, again emphasising the fluidity at this planning and brainstorming phase, would be for 1836, or 42 years after the PoD. To put it another way, fit 65 years into 42.
De Army
As of 1794, the British Army effectively consisted of:
1.) Regular Army
2a.) The Militia: Reserve infantry for home defence and internal security
2b.) Yeomanry: Reserve cavalry regiments for the same purpose as the Militia
This was then followed by a couple of extra tiers during the NW:
3.) The British Volunteer Corps from 1794 ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Volunteer_Corps )
4.) Local Militia: A second line series of formations created by the 1808 act and existing through to 1816
The Volunteer Corps had its later echo in the Volunteer Force of 1859-1908, before it was subsumed into the Territorial Force along with the Yeomanry, whilst the Local Militia can be seen as a precursor of the Home Guard, in a certain sense.
This ‘very British system’ can be sort of viewed as broadly equivalent to the Regular Army - Landwehr - Landsturm structure utilised, among others, by Ze Prussians, if we group Categories 2 and 3 together.
The one element that was missing from the British experience in the 19th century until 1859 was a distinct Army Reserve, when it was born through the changes to the length of service requirements. This yielded a relatively small 80,000 man component by 1914.
I’m going to try and explore some changes to the general @ structure to a quadripartite one of
A.) Regulars
B.) Army Reserve
C.) Militia + Yeomanry + Volunteers
D.) Local Militia/Home Guard equivalent
This isn’t to say that Category D will be embodied permanently or anything like that, but simply that this will be the long term organisational aim.
It will be accompanied by a raft of other military reforms, but as said upthread, not all rushed together on an unrealistic basis, but spread out logically and efficientl
Sport, Sport, Masculine Sport/Equips a Young Man for Society
With a 1794 start, the rules and progression of cricket still have a bit of work to go, allowing for some different development.
It is also long before any of the codification of the various forms of football into soccer, rugger and that American thingy with forward passing. That gives a potential opportunity for the development of a different type of football, from the future of a far off and deadly land…
Photography
- Thomas Wedgewood conducted his experiments around 1800, creating photograms, but lacked a way to fix the images. Arranging for him to receive the Daguerreotype patent information looks to be the best way of accelerating the process
- Pushing through colour photography will take a bit more time, but once Maxwell comes forth with the theory, there should be a shorter process between that and its development and introduction; a lack of need for fumbling in the dark is a theme that will come up in quite a few areas
- Having a few Polaroid instant cameras around the house will enable some scenes, people and places to be captured on (colour) film before the proper introduction of 'organically developed photography'
Telegraphy and Communications
- The Chappe optical telegraph will have an even shorter life here
- Francis Ronalds is our boy here for any earlier exploitation of ideas, perhaps even that of Morse code for what I'd term a Gen 0 Telegraph. Getting Cooke and Wheatstone to an earlier collaboration to then develop and field the Gen 1 Telegraph in the mid 1820s will be a general goal to be worked out in detail
- Wireless telegraphy will absolutely have to wait, but as the necessary technology advances, there is scope for it in the 1860s or thereabouts, followed by some further scope for the building blocks of commercial radio in the late 1880s
- The development of the telephone can be focused and accelerated through keeping Bell in London (preventing the death of his brother Melville from TB that precipitated the family's emigration to Newfoundland)
- The motion picture camera and phonograph will see some accompanying earlier development
General Science
- There were quite a few great scientists in 19th Century Britain, so getting an expanded Royal institution in London, supplying it with good funding, 'novel information', expanded laboratories and facilities; arranging for the rescue of Lavoisier (and nabbing/recruiting du Pont in the process); and then using it as the basis for a more expansive Royal University in London
- As of 1794, there are open fields for a fairly expansive site currently largely covered by the University of London: https://www.google.com/maps/place/L...t ... oASAFQAw==
(I think that link will show up Google Maps with my rough boundary drawing measured out on it. As can be seen here, that area is open in 1794: https://www.oldmapslibrary.com/product/ ... ndon-1794/ )
- This would then be added to by the further developments that would be amalgamated into Imperial College down the line to cover some of the more practical and engineering based disciplines
- Creating some earlier equivalent to the Nobel Prizes would provide a means for encouraging and supporting science and research, amongst other disciplines
- Having a London location, in addition to Oxford and Cambridge, would allow for a 'nexus' of scientific research and development right in an area of the greatest infrastructure and available capital; there would also be scope for 'headhunting' known foreign talent
Population and Infrastructure
- In 1801, the top 11 cities by population in England were London with 959,000, Manchester with 90,000, Liverpool 80,000, Birmingham 74,000, Bristol 64,000, Leeds 53,000, Plymouth 45,000, Bath 40,000, Norwich 35,633, Portsmouth ~ 33,000 and Sheffield 31,000
- The 'second city' through the @ 19th century was Liverpool, transitioning to Birmingham after the Great War, with Manchester dropping from 2nd in 1801 to a steady position around #4
- Dublin had a population of 200,000 in 1800, befitting its position as the second city of the British Empire at the time, whilst Belfast was 20,000
- Glasgow was 83,700 in 1801, Edinburgh 81,000, then Paisley 31,200, Aberdeen 27.400, Dundee 26,800, Greenock 17,400, Perth 14,800, Dunfermline 9900, Falkirk 8800, Inverness 8700, Kilmarnock 8000, Montrose 7900 and Dumfries 7200
- Insofar as 1801 Wales is concerned, Merthyr Tydfil 7705, Swansea 6099, Cardiff 1870, Aberystwyth 1758, Newport 1000 (county borough population 6657) and Milford Haven was just newly established
- For comparison, the US in 1800 had NYC with 60,514, Philadelphia 41,220, Baltimore 26,514, Boston 24,937 and Charleston 18,824
- The consequences of this are that plenty of cities can be designed and built 'on their way up', rather than developed according to their @ patterns. This opportunity goes hand in hand with the PoD being prior to the Railway Boom and being able to influence the development and patterns of infrastructure in that sense
- Some of the 20th century 'New Towns' can be planned and initiated more organically, as time goes by, whilst some conurbations can be built towards on an earlier basis. For example, Middlesbrough doesn't make the Top 40 largest cities until 1900, with a population of 91,300; the potential for an industrial city around Teesside encompassing Middlesbrough, Redcar, Billingham and Stockton-on-Tees is interesting
- An interesting comparison can be found between Germany and Britain. Using 1910 and 1921 statistics respectively, we get the following:
Berlin 2,071,057, Hamburg 931,035, Munich 596,467, Leipzig 589,850, Dresden 548,308, Cologne 516,527, Breslau 512,105, Frankfurt 414,576, Dusseldorf 358,728 and Nuremberg 333,142 (6 cities between 500,000 and 1 million)
London 7,480,200,Birmingham 922,200, Liverpool 802,900, Manchester 730,000, Sheffield 490,000, Leeds 458,200, Bristol 377,000, Bradford 291,000, Hull 287,000 and Newcastle 275,000 (3 cities between 500,000 and 1 million)
- This of course leaves out the Scottish, Welsh and Irish cities, with Glasgow having 1,034,000, Edinburgh 436,536, Cardiff 227,753, Dublin 477,196 (1911) and Belfast 386,947 (1911), which only adds a couple of larger cities to the 'gap'
- The total British list comes to London 7,480,200, Glasgow 1,034,000, Birmingham 922,200, Liverpool 802,900, Manchester 730,000, Sheffield 490,000, Dublin 477,196, Leeds 458,200, Edinburgh 436,536, Belfast 386,947, Bristol 377,000, Bradford 291,000, Hull 287,000 and Newcastle 275,000
- FWIW, the USA in 1920 had NYC 5,620,048, Chicago 2,701,705, Philadelphia 1,823,779, Detroit 993,069, Cleveland 796,841, St. Louis 772,897, Boston 748,060, Baltimore 733,826, Pittsburgh 588,343, Los Angeles 576,643
- A Tyneside conurbation would be larger than Leipzig, whilst one around Bradford et al would exceed Cologne; the fluid definition of a city/metropolitan area would suggest that there isn't a deficit of larger British cities per se so much as different boundaries, definitions and historical factors at play in a smaller landmass
- In terms of ATL size, by ~1901, London will be pushing 9 million, Glasgow 2 million, Birmingham 1.5 million, Liverpool and Manchester 1 million, Leeds 650,000, Sheffield, Bradford, Dublin and Newcastle 500,000 and Nottingham, Bristol, Hull, Belfast and Leicester 400,000-500,000
- The relevance of this musing is that, absent emigration to the Americas and the colonies, an enlarged population will have to live somewhere, and have the infrastructure, services and growth room to accommodate them
- Some new cities would come together organically, others will be more planned, like @ Milton Keynes (albeit here designed by human beings and not hellspawn)
- Whilst the Canal Boom will be relatively short lived compared to the iron horses, there is also an opportunity to do more, and, in the process, provide the basis and rights of way for future water infrastructure. Building with an eye upon a Grand Contour Canal would provide the basis for a future water grid, in addition to its advantages in water transport
- A whole modern road network can be planned and built over time, preferably missing out on some of the less efficient aspects of some modern motorways and intertwining more organically with a railway network
Social Reform and its Context
- The 1745 rebellion was within living memory and the situation with the former North American colonies something that a wise man didn't bring up with the King; the Restoration and the Great Strike were nigh on equidistant
- This was a long time ago, in the distant past to the 21st century, and things were done differently then
- As of 1794, the last execution by burning at the stake was in 1789 (Although, in that case, the woman in question was hanged first. For a traditional burning, one would need to go back to 1726 in England and 1727 in Scotland for petty treason and witchcraft respectively, whilst the last Irish burning in 1761 does not have enough details to confirm or deny the procedure. /Pedantic mode off)
- The prospects for wide-sweeping political and social reform, much of which is both practically and morally necessary, thus need to be somewhat measured by the limit of how much can be done realistically in a certain span of time
- Many types of reforms that we take for granted, such as child labour laws, women's equality or the secret ballot, are going to take time. Pushing too hard on the 'reform button' will lead to some degree of backlash from established interests and power groups that could, at a minimum, cause complications, problems and even reverses
- In a pre Victorian society, the pace of communication, decision, change and even movement was different
- Thus, if we don't see something happening, that does not mean that The Traveler and his band of merry men don't intend to do it, or that your humble author doesn't believe it valuable or important, but that things in this era will take time; indeed, the notion of 'time' or standardised time zones didn't come in @ until railway time and GMT in the 1840s
- The exception to this is going to be some earlier moves against cruelty to animals. That is just my 'thing', and I'll utilise my authorial thumb on the scale for better conditions for cats and dogs et al
- Another aspect of the period is that various evolutions of the modern British constitution have not yet occurred, nor have there been quite a few seminal cases leading to the development of modern law
- Developing a slightly different legal system, a law enforcement system (including policing) and certain rights will be an interesting challenge; as of 1794, there has been no significant change to the right to keep and bear arms from the situation laid out by William Blackstone in his Commentaries on the Laws of England
Education
- Education will be an area where some earlier nudges and changes will bear fruit accordingly in a few generations, including a third university, then subsequent earlier development of the 'Redbrick Universities'
- Encouraging/supporting the development of more public libraries is something with a relatively low cost and a decent long term result
- There was no modern sense of schooling at the time, with the later Newcastle Commission and Elementary Education Act of 1870 serving as the foundation of 20th century developments, but what will be interesting is trying to engineer the developments that came to that head in 1870, not to mention the Clarendon and Taunton Commissions
- 1904 recommendations regarding secondary education were for 'a four year subject-based course leading to a certificate in English language and literature, geography, history, a foreign language, mathematics, science, drawing, manual work, physical training, and, for girls, housewifery'. Interpreting 'drawing' as art, inserting divinity/religion and some eventual sense of social studies/civics, along with some possible tweaking and combination, could be one proto 'curriculum' to emerge along those lines. Note that this isn't something on the cards for the 1790s, but more likely for the 1850s or thereabouts
- Historically, literacy rates rose during the 19th century from ~60% to ~97% for both men and women, so engineering some increase in this rise would again bear fruit in due course
Miscellaneous Errata
- To get time for natural processes, slow moving trends and generational change to work, one thing that can be done is to maximise military opportunities and cheat like bloomin’ crazy
- Merely having a temporary advantage in one class of weapons or in ships in general should not, as a general rule, be cause for complacency
- What a loaded deck and an essentially complete cheat book of history should render is at least a 1 generational advantage in terms of technology, firepower and capability
- This would make any subsequent wars after that current series, in their ideal form, short, sharp, shiny and dashed unsporting to the extent that they make Omdurman look like a close run thing
- It is absolutely inevitable that there will be natural leakage of tech and ideas, so that any sense of @ timetables of what emerged when is simply of illustrative utility
- Tech isn’t the only variable at play, with economic capacity of being able to afford developments and scale them up being vitally important; only a very few potential rivals in the 19th century will be able to even begin to play that game
- Developing and expanding the Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew will include a veritable/imaginative recreation of the Hanging Gardens, in order to hopefully increase happiness by three people in London and one person in every other city (A big reward to whoever recognises this reference...)
- There will be an earlier move towards the Uniform Penny Post
- Rather than being a somewhat artificial creature of the Cheese Bureau of the Milk Marketing Board, the ploughman's lunch will emerge a bit more, ahem, organically
- The stump-jump plough and various other inventions associated with clearing land will be pioneered rather earlier
- I won't spoil how, but a certain Queen won't carry hemophilia
- There is something to be said for a Champs-Elysees equivalent combined with something of an equivalent to Anzac Parade in Canberra, Australia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anzac_Parade,_Canberra )
- Preserving some sense of the Medieval City Wall of London, and possibly whatever can be potentially recreated of the (relatively recently demolished) gates, could perhaps add to the heritage and aesthetic appeal; a stretch goal of sorts, depending on what can be researched
- The Eglington Tournament, rather than being washed out and ridiculed from certain quarters, will come as a bit of a flowering of a long developing Romanticist and Gothic Revival social movement, in concert with the continuation of certain traditional elements of Royal Coronation ceremonial events
- Carlton House will not be demolished to pay for Buckingham Palace, with the latter being all the more grand; to pre-empt any questions as to the cost, the historical version was £496,169
- Beau Brummel will be utilised to make some nudges and changes to men's fashion and general habits of the Ton/Society, along with Sir Percy Blakeney
- Without Bonaparte (and Josephine), Continental fashion will develop a little differently: https://fashion-era.com/fashion-history ... cy-fashion
- After rescuing the Dauphin, give some consideration to trying to match him up with Princess Amelia
- There is room/scope for 4-5 'New Cities' across Great Britain and perhaps a couple in Ireland
- An earlier introduction of a form of police/proto Peeler, along with eventually using technology such as 'finger marks', may have some bearing on the type of events akin to Peterloo
- There won't likely be an exact analogue to Peterloo, in the likely absence of a post Napoleonic War double dip depression (compounded by 1816 in the first hit), but there is likely to be some level of disturbance relating to the Radical cause. However, should it not be exacerbated by unemployment and all the other fun aspects of a postwar depression, it may not blow up to the same extent
- The Corn Laws situation, as briefly discussed upthread, could potentially manifest themselves in a different fashion, perhaps more expansive to include the Canadas; the roll out and spread of more productive wheat strains will have a role to play
- There will be a Pacific expedition around 1808 to try and pinpoint the origin/location of the 1808 mystery eruption
- What type of force level would be required to 'open' China and Japan earlier?
Even More Miscellaneous Errata
1.) The general principle on industry is not simply to look to expedite historical achievements, but to perfect and outdo them as and where appropriate, rendering a better railway system, better port infrastructure for steamers and a better canal network, to pluck out three examples.
2.) Another general principle is that there is to be no resting on figurative laurels and no wasted years; even the Year Without a Summer will have a purpose.
3.) Whilst other states may, in time, improve their relative position compared to @ through the inevitable spillover of technology, prosperity, knowledge and opportunity, a third principle is that Britain must not only retain her advantage gifted through the circumstances of 1794, but work to extend it. The best way to prevent costly future wars is real strength and capability, hand in hand with a financial capacity to potentially wage war that is well beyond that of any other potential enemy
4.) The British Empire should have no permanent/natural enemies, but rather having long standing interests which will influence how the policies and interests of other states are viewed
5.) A stronger Empire needs a stronger Britain, which in turn needs stronger, healthier, happier and better off people. Addressing historical failings and problems, in a realistic fashion over time, is one means of achieving this
6.) Whilst Britain reached her apex of relative power in the mid 19th century, this was fleeting, with the seeds of future problems and flaws being sewn in those golden years of glory. A slight alteration to relative fortunes is not sufficient for fundamental change, so a more ambitious. calculated and at all times intelligent trajectory would seem to be necessary. The nature of the British governmental system at this time is quite well disposed towards putting in place a long term approach, what with a long period of Tory government on the horizon
7.) Yet another general principle is not to mess up progress by trying to go too fast and figuratively getting out of control. There are multiple established beliefs, interests and positions that stand in the way of what might be considered to be a better future state of affairs, but trying to headbutt through each and every one of them isn't the most efficient or cost effective approach. Some things are better done in stages; the 'advance by rushes' principle talked about upthread
8.) Some approaches and indeed solutions are uniquely available to a Britain that possesses relative foreknowledge and is able to plan for and act in the very long term time frame. For example, the initial number of Voortrekkers in the Cape Colony was perhaps 14,000, whose relative influence and position could potentially be changed through a consistent flow of 5000-10000 British and Irish colonists per year over 40 to 50 years, shifting the underlying basis not just for @ conflicts in the 1880s-1900s, but political and ideological positions that had a great bearing upon the subsequent development of Southern Africa
9.) Britain prospered in the First Industrial Revolution, but in the Second Industrial Revolution of @ 1870-1914, characterised by steel, chemicals, electricity, telegraphy, railways, machinery and oil, it was distinctly behind the United States and Germany. This needs to change and will do so here
10.) I'm loathe to indulge in policies of 'beggar thy neighbour' or otherwise seeking to hamstring potential competitors of 70-100 years down the line, but as well as some rather common sense measures to avoid gifting advantages to some competitors, a bit of foreknowledge enables Britain to craft a malleable strategic approach, rather than being hidebound in particular doctrines
- Boney captured or sunk off Egypt
- A follow up embassy to Macartney to be dispatched to China in due course, with new inventions/capabilities + ISOTed additions utilised to try and secure its goals
- Push Jenner's smallpox vaccine
- Antibiotics, antiseptics, hand washing, germ theory and the 'discovery' of iodine and betadine
- A Royal Commission on the Health of the Army
- Nelson to have success at Tenerife with larger forces; Abercromby to command larger invasion/descent upon Porto Rico
- Support and accentuate Mungo Park's exploration
- Nelson survives any Trafalgar analogue, whilst Pitt lives a fair bit longer and doesn't resign in 1801 in different circumstances
- Expedite moves towards the abolition of the slave trade and slavery
- Build the canal and railway networks wisely, and in a manner that precludes certain pernicious bottlenecks from the @ future
- Plan and build RN and civil naval infrastructure over time, whilst planning and reserving land for expansion of some dockyards
- Buy or seize some of the miscellaneous Atlantic islands in due course
- Take the Rio de la Plata/Argentina during the course of any war with Spain
- Manage and minimise the Great Trek, whilst also working to stymie the Mfecane
- Consolidate RN shipbuilding types, with frigate construction to be focused upon the 18 and 24 pounder types (12 x 18pdr assorted frigates in different classes in each of 1794-1800 for 84 vs 35, then 48 x 46 gun Ledas, 36 x 48 gun Apollos and 36 x 52 gun Livelys as and if needed; 36 x 24pdr fourth rates built as frigates along the lines/design of Southampton class from 1796-1805 parallel to the first half of the maximal potential programme)
- As mentioned above, increase number of 1st and 2nd rates from 22 and 18/25 to 32 x 125-150 gun 1st rates and 32 x 100 gun 2nd rates during the FRW period; a minimum of 136 x 84 gun 3rd rates to be built in this period
- Early bicycle invention and popularity
- Increase food production and net calorific intake over several generations to lead to improvements in average height, general health and reduction in impact of disease
- Army to build up to a theoretical maximum of 140* Regiments of Foot, plus the Rifle regiments and Foot Guards, along with West India Regiments, KGL and other formations; some reduction in total regiments very possible after general peace, with higher number units to possibly transition into a reserve role not seen in @
Some Collated Notes to Show Background Thinking (and to prod reaction) [Part the Second]
We've had Artillery. But What About Second Artillery?
the general artillery plan is:
1.) Light 12pdrs, 9pdrs and 24pdr howitzers in the 1795-1810 period
2.) RMLs from 1810-1815 through the late 1820s/early 1830s, with ranges pushing out to the 2 mile mark, or double that of smoothbore cannon generally employed by competitor states
3.) Armstrong type guns in 12pdr, 24 or 25pdr, 50pdr and 100pdr versions with ranges of 4000-5000 yards in the 1830s-1840s
4.) Going for even longer range guns and howitzers from there, with a combination of technology and knowledge giving the Royal Artillery capabilities that outrange, outweigh and outshoot anything that a putative opponent can potentially bring to bear
5.) Developing non-gun artillery, including rockets and mortars, as appropriate and over time
Agriculture and Food
- Attached to The House/BP is a large potting shed filled with cultivars of modern seed potatoes (from blight resistant varieties); several dozen sacks of various modern (post Green Revolution) wheat, barley, rice and maize seeds. with each sack containing roughly 500 smaller packs of 10,000 seeds; and modern seeds from various fruits and vegetables
- Some of the seed strains coming in with the house will go a reasonable way towards increasing crop yield and calorie output per acre. This won’t deliver modern outputs without the accompanying machinery and fertilisers, but will increase over 1800s varieties markedly, allowing later improvements as mechanisation and use of improved fertilisers becomes possible in the fullness of time. This will help to accentuate the shift from large requirements for agricultural labour and help nudge the surplus manpower to other areas as they open up.
- One historical action that will be strenuously discouraged is the 1859 release of 13 rabbits in Australia, which lead to just a small population increase to 10 billion by 1920 in @, with plentiful costs as a result.
- The development of canned/tinned food saw it become something of a status symbol in the Victorian period, before then filtering down to becoming cheaper and more available for the working classes. Stimulating this process would be particularly advantageous. Developing decent versions of Spam, Loof/Bully Beef and Corned Mutton will have some utility
- Developing MSG is not too great a leap, at the appropriate time, and provides for a way to complement flavour, even before the development of the concept of an 'umami' flavour
- Increasing the amount of beef and pork produced will, in time, stimulate the development of certain street foods, such as hamburger steaks, beefsteak and roast beef sandwiches and hot dogs, along with meat pies, sausage rolls and pasties, with the right nudges and encouragement
- The earlier development and rise of fish and chips could increase its availability to the burgeoning working classes. As and when more chickens are available, some other developments will occur, including peculiar blends of a number of herbs and spices
- Meatloaf will see some different changes and popularised receipts
- The ploughman's lunch will be a bit more of a genuine development here (albeit one planted through encouragement of workers on an estate)
- We shall see the now extinct and mysterious Halford's Leicestershire Sauce in action
- Smoke roasting or barbecuing (in the Southern American sense) will see a British manifestation
- There will be a move away from use of French terminology on menus and in grand cuisine, based on that which historically occurred in the Regency period, but extended and managed
- Peanut butter will be developed a lot earlier
- Laws against food adulteration will see movement rather earlier
- There will be some other dishes that emerge similar to some German/Austrian ones
- Heinz baked beans and tomato ketchup will come earlier, under a different name
- A cola based soft drink will get developed rather earlier
De Royal Navy
As a general outline of 'Warrior to Dreadnought'. I'd see the following types/generations, with the dates being fluid:
Warrior: 1830s prototype broadside ironclad. based on a large ironclad ship of the line vs an ironclad frigate, armed initially with 60+ guns
Devastation: Late 1840s/early 1850s turret ironclad battleship with two 12" turrets and a number of smaller guns
Inflexible: Late 1850s-Early 1860s Larger turret ironclad, introducing some new engines and technologies
'Royal Sovereigns': 1865-Early 1870s 'predreadnoughts' with Harvey steel armour akin to a proto cross between the Majestics and Royal Sovereigns
'Dreadnought': ~Late 1870s-Early 1880s with 'all big gun', steam turbines, 'Vickers armour' (@ Krupp CA)
The historical gaps:
Warrior (1861) - Devastation (1873): 12 years
Devastation (1873) - Inflexible (1881): 8 years (launched 1876, but construction halted April 76-December 77)
Inflexible (1881) - Royal Sovereign (1892): 11 years
Even factoring in the rather extended @ periods, the mooted schedule (which was described as a 'general outline' with an emphasis on dates being fluid) is effectively the same as @. For the bulk of the progression, there is no greater ambition than historical.
There is a faster move towards Dreadnought, but the idea of an all big gun battleship was percolating for a number of years prior to 1904, so that the epoch of the pre-dreadnought proper was short if intense. By that point, there isn't much that will be entirely new in construction terms, but rather putting together pieces, such as turbines, new guns, fire control and more.
The big area of difference is in the timing of Warrior. Historically, she was laid down in 1859, some 16 years after the first RN screw propeller vessel (Rattler), 20 years after the first iron warship (Nemesis) and the first screw propeller steamship (Archimedes), and 18 years after the first naval adoption of the Paixhans shell gun. However, as noted upthread, the shell gun as an idea had been in development from 1824. In terms of general steamships, the first seagoing one was in 1813 and the first Atlantic crossing substantially under steam being the Curacao in 1827. At a minimum, some of the protracted experimental periods can be abbreviated through going for the known best working path, and driving a substantially earlier development and adoption of a screw propeller.
The aim for Warrior, again emphasising the fluidity at this planning and brainstorming phase, would be for 1836, or 42 years after the PoD. To put it another way, fit 65 years into 42.
De Army
As of 1794, the British Army effectively consisted of:
1.) Regular Army
2a.) The Militia: Reserve infantry for home defence and internal security
2b.) Yeomanry: Reserve cavalry regiments for the same purpose as the Militia
This was then followed by a couple of extra tiers during the NW:
3.) The British Volunteer Corps from 1794 ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Volunteer_Corps )
4.) Local Militia: A second line series of formations created by the 1808 act and existing through to 1816
The Volunteer Corps had its later echo in the Volunteer Force of 1859-1908, before it was subsumed into the Territorial Force along with the Yeomanry, whilst the Local Militia can be seen as a precursor of the Home Guard, in a certain sense.
This ‘very British system’ can be sort of viewed as broadly equivalent to the Regular Army - Landwehr - Landsturm structure utilised, among others, by Ze Prussians, if we group Categories 2 and 3 together.
The one element that was missing from the British experience in the 19th century until 1859 was a distinct Army Reserve, when it was born through the changes to the length of service requirements. This yielded a relatively small 80,000 man component by 1914.
I’m going to try and explore some changes to the general @ structure to a quadripartite one of
A.) Regulars
B.) Army Reserve
C.) Militia + Yeomanry + Volunteers
D.) Local Militia/Home Guard equivalent
This isn’t to say that Category D will be embodied permanently or anything like that, but simply that this will be the long term organisational aim.
It will be accompanied by a raft of other military reforms, but as said upthread, not all rushed together on an unrealistic basis, but spread out logically and efficientl
Sport, Sport, Masculine Sport/Equips a Young Man for Society
With a 1794 start, the rules and progression of cricket still have a bit of work to go, allowing for some different development.
It is also long before any of the codification of the various forms of football into soccer, rugger and that American thingy with forward passing. That gives a potential opportunity for the development of a different type of football, from the future of a far off and deadly land…
Photography
- Thomas Wedgewood conducted his experiments around 1800, creating photograms, but lacked a way to fix the images. Arranging for him to receive the Daguerreotype patent information looks to be the best way of accelerating the process
- Pushing through colour photography will take a bit more time, but once Maxwell comes forth with the theory, there should be a shorter process between that and its development and introduction; a lack of need for fumbling in the dark is a theme that will come up in quite a few areas
- Having a few Polaroid instant cameras around the house will enable some scenes, people and places to be captured on (colour) film before the proper introduction of 'organically developed photography'
Telegraphy and Communications
- The Chappe optical telegraph will have an even shorter life here
- Francis Ronalds is our boy here for any earlier exploitation of ideas, perhaps even that of Morse code for what I'd term a Gen 0 Telegraph. Getting Cooke and Wheatstone to an earlier collaboration to then develop and field the Gen 1 Telegraph in the mid 1820s will be a general goal to be worked out in detail
- Wireless telegraphy will absolutely have to wait, but as the necessary technology advances, there is scope for it in the 1860s or thereabouts, followed by some further scope for the building blocks of commercial radio in the late 1880s
- The development of the telephone can be focused and accelerated through keeping Bell in London (preventing the death of his brother Melville from TB that precipitated the family's emigration to Newfoundland)
- The motion picture camera and phonograph will see some accompanying earlier development
General Science
- There were quite a few great scientists in 19th Century Britain, so getting an expanded Royal institution in London, supplying it with good funding, 'novel information', expanded laboratories and facilities; arranging for the rescue of Lavoisier (and nabbing/recruiting du Pont in the process); and then using it as the basis for a more expansive Royal University in London
- As of 1794, there are open fields for a fairly expansive site currently largely covered by the University of London: https://www.google.com/maps/place/L...t ... oASAFQAw==
(I think that link will show up Google Maps with my rough boundary drawing measured out on it. As can be seen here, that area is open in 1794: https://www.oldmapslibrary.com/product/ ... ndon-1794/ )
- This would then be added to by the further developments that would be amalgamated into Imperial College down the line to cover some of the more practical and engineering based disciplines
- Creating some earlier equivalent to the Nobel Prizes would provide a means for encouraging and supporting science and research, amongst other disciplines
- Having a London location, in addition to Oxford and Cambridge, would allow for a 'nexus' of scientific research and development right in an area of the greatest infrastructure and available capital; there would also be scope for 'headhunting' known foreign talent
Population and Infrastructure
- In 1801, the top 11 cities by population in England were London with 959,000, Manchester with 90,000, Liverpool 80,000, Birmingham 74,000, Bristol 64,000, Leeds 53,000, Plymouth 45,000, Bath 40,000, Norwich 35,633, Portsmouth ~ 33,000 and Sheffield 31,000
- The 'second city' through the @ 19th century was Liverpool, transitioning to Birmingham after the Great War, with Manchester dropping from 2nd in 1801 to a steady position around #4
- Dublin had a population of 200,000 in 1800, befitting its position as the second city of the British Empire at the time, whilst Belfast was 20,000
- Glasgow was 83,700 in 1801, Edinburgh 81,000, then Paisley 31,200, Aberdeen 27.400, Dundee 26,800, Greenock 17,400, Perth 14,800, Dunfermline 9900, Falkirk 8800, Inverness 8700, Kilmarnock 8000, Montrose 7900 and Dumfries 7200
- Insofar as 1801 Wales is concerned, Merthyr Tydfil 7705, Swansea 6099, Cardiff 1870, Aberystwyth 1758, Newport 1000 (county borough population 6657) and Milford Haven was just newly established
- For comparison, the US in 1800 had NYC with 60,514, Philadelphia 41,220, Baltimore 26,514, Boston 24,937 and Charleston 18,824
- The consequences of this are that plenty of cities can be designed and built 'on their way up', rather than developed according to their @ patterns. This opportunity goes hand in hand with the PoD being prior to the Railway Boom and being able to influence the development and patterns of infrastructure in that sense
- Some of the 20th century 'New Towns' can be planned and initiated more organically, as time goes by, whilst some conurbations can be built towards on an earlier basis. For example, Middlesbrough doesn't make the Top 40 largest cities until 1900, with a population of 91,300; the potential for an industrial city around Teesside encompassing Middlesbrough, Redcar, Billingham and Stockton-on-Tees is interesting
- An interesting comparison can be found between Germany and Britain. Using 1910 and 1921 statistics respectively, we get the following:
Berlin 2,071,057, Hamburg 931,035, Munich 596,467, Leipzig 589,850, Dresden 548,308, Cologne 516,527, Breslau 512,105, Frankfurt 414,576, Dusseldorf 358,728 and Nuremberg 333,142 (6 cities between 500,000 and 1 million)
London 7,480,200,Birmingham 922,200, Liverpool 802,900, Manchester 730,000, Sheffield 490,000, Leeds 458,200, Bristol 377,000, Bradford 291,000, Hull 287,000 and Newcastle 275,000 (3 cities between 500,000 and 1 million)
- This of course leaves out the Scottish, Welsh and Irish cities, with Glasgow having 1,034,000, Edinburgh 436,536, Cardiff 227,753, Dublin 477,196 (1911) and Belfast 386,947 (1911), which only adds a couple of larger cities to the 'gap'
- The total British list comes to London 7,480,200, Glasgow 1,034,000, Birmingham 922,200, Liverpool 802,900, Manchester 730,000, Sheffield 490,000, Dublin 477,196, Leeds 458,200, Edinburgh 436,536, Belfast 386,947, Bristol 377,000, Bradford 291,000, Hull 287,000 and Newcastle 275,000
- FWIW, the USA in 1920 had NYC 5,620,048, Chicago 2,701,705, Philadelphia 1,823,779, Detroit 993,069, Cleveland 796,841, St. Louis 772,897, Boston 748,060, Baltimore 733,826, Pittsburgh 588,343, Los Angeles 576,643
- A Tyneside conurbation would be larger than Leipzig, whilst one around Bradford et al would exceed Cologne; the fluid definition of a city/metropolitan area would suggest that there isn't a deficit of larger British cities per se so much as different boundaries, definitions and historical factors at play in a smaller landmass
- In terms of ATL size, by ~1901, London will be pushing 9 million, Glasgow 2 million, Birmingham 1.5 million, Liverpool and Manchester 1 million, Leeds 650,000, Sheffield, Bradford, Dublin and Newcastle 500,000 and Nottingham, Bristol, Hull, Belfast and Leicester 400,000-500,000
- The relevance of this musing is that, absent emigration to the Americas and the colonies, an enlarged population will have to live somewhere, and have the infrastructure, services and growth room to accommodate them
- Some new cities would come together organically, others will be more planned, like @ Milton Keynes (albeit here designed by human beings and not hellspawn)
- Whilst the Canal Boom will be relatively short lived compared to the iron horses, there is also an opportunity to do more, and, in the process, provide the basis and rights of way for future water infrastructure. Building with an eye upon a Grand Contour Canal would provide the basis for a future water grid, in addition to its advantages in water transport
- A whole modern road network can be planned and built over time, preferably missing out on some of the less efficient aspects of some modern motorways and intertwining more organically with a railway network
Social Reform and its Context
- The 1745 rebellion was within living memory and the situation with the former North American colonies something that a wise man didn't bring up with the King; the Restoration and the Great Strike were nigh on equidistant
- This was a long time ago, in the distant past to the 21st century, and things were done differently then
- As of 1794, the last execution by burning at the stake was in 1789 (Although, in that case, the woman in question was hanged first. For a traditional burning, one would need to go back to 1726 in England and 1727 in Scotland for petty treason and witchcraft respectively, whilst the last Irish burning in 1761 does not have enough details to confirm or deny the procedure. /Pedantic mode off)
- The prospects for wide-sweeping political and social reform, much of which is both practically and morally necessary, thus need to be somewhat measured by the limit of how much can be done realistically in a certain span of time
- Many types of reforms that we take for granted, such as child labour laws, women's equality or the secret ballot, are going to take time. Pushing too hard on the 'reform button' will lead to some degree of backlash from established interests and power groups that could, at a minimum, cause complications, problems and even reverses
- In a pre Victorian society, the pace of communication, decision, change and even movement was different
- Thus, if we don't see something happening, that does not mean that The Traveler and his band of merry men don't intend to do it, or that your humble author doesn't believe it valuable or important, but that things in this era will take time; indeed, the notion of 'time' or standardised time zones didn't come in @ until railway time and GMT in the 1840s
- The exception to this is going to be some earlier moves against cruelty to animals. That is just my 'thing', and I'll utilise my authorial thumb on the scale for better conditions for cats and dogs et al
- Another aspect of the period is that various evolutions of the modern British constitution have not yet occurred, nor have there been quite a few seminal cases leading to the development of modern law
- Developing a slightly different legal system, a law enforcement system (including policing) and certain rights will be an interesting challenge; as of 1794, there has been no significant change to the right to keep and bear arms from the situation laid out by William Blackstone in his Commentaries on the Laws of England
Education
- Education will be an area where some earlier nudges and changes will bear fruit accordingly in a few generations, including a third university, then subsequent earlier development of the 'Redbrick Universities'
- Encouraging/supporting the development of more public libraries is something with a relatively low cost and a decent long term result
- There was no modern sense of schooling at the time, with the later Newcastle Commission and Elementary Education Act of 1870 serving as the foundation of 20th century developments, but what will be interesting is trying to engineer the developments that came to that head in 1870, not to mention the Clarendon and Taunton Commissions
- 1904 recommendations regarding secondary education were for 'a four year subject-based course leading to a certificate in English language and literature, geography, history, a foreign language, mathematics, science, drawing, manual work, physical training, and, for girls, housewifery'. Interpreting 'drawing' as art, inserting divinity/religion and some eventual sense of social studies/civics, along with some possible tweaking and combination, could be one proto 'curriculum' to emerge along those lines. Note that this isn't something on the cards for the 1790s, but more likely for the 1850s or thereabouts
- Historically, literacy rates rose during the 19th century from ~60% to ~97% for both men and women, so engineering some increase in this rise would again bear fruit in due course
Miscellaneous Errata
- To get time for natural processes, slow moving trends and generational change to work, one thing that can be done is to maximise military opportunities and cheat like bloomin’ crazy
- Merely having a temporary advantage in one class of weapons or in ships in general should not, as a general rule, be cause for complacency
- What a loaded deck and an essentially complete cheat book of history should render is at least a 1 generational advantage in terms of technology, firepower and capability
- This would make any subsequent wars after that current series, in their ideal form, short, sharp, shiny and dashed unsporting to the extent that they make Omdurman look like a close run thing
- It is absolutely inevitable that there will be natural leakage of tech and ideas, so that any sense of @ timetables of what emerged when is simply of illustrative utility
- Tech isn’t the only variable at play, with economic capacity of being able to afford developments and scale them up being vitally important; only a very few potential rivals in the 19th century will be able to even begin to play that game
- Developing and expanding the Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew will include a veritable/imaginative recreation of the Hanging Gardens, in order to hopefully increase happiness by three people in London and one person in every other city (A big reward to whoever recognises this reference...)
- There will be an earlier move towards the Uniform Penny Post
- Rather than being a somewhat artificial creature of the Cheese Bureau of the Milk Marketing Board, the ploughman's lunch will emerge a bit more, ahem, organically
- The stump-jump plough and various other inventions associated with clearing land will be pioneered rather earlier
- I won't spoil how, but a certain Queen won't carry hemophilia
- There is something to be said for a Champs-Elysees equivalent combined with something of an equivalent to Anzac Parade in Canberra, Australia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anzac_Parade,_Canberra )
- Preserving some sense of the Medieval City Wall of London, and possibly whatever can be potentially recreated of the (relatively recently demolished) gates, could perhaps add to the heritage and aesthetic appeal; a stretch goal of sorts, depending on what can be researched
- The Eglington Tournament, rather than being washed out and ridiculed from certain quarters, will come as a bit of a flowering of a long developing Romanticist and Gothic Revival social movement, in concert with the continuation of certain traditional elements of Royal Coronation ceremonial events
- Carlton House will not be demolished to pay for Buckingham Palace, with the latter being all the more grand; to pre-empt any questions as to the cost, the historical version was £496,169
- Beau Brummel will be utilised to make some nudges and changes to men's fashion and general habits of the Ton/Society, along with Sir Percy Blakeney
- Without Bonaparte (and Josephine), Continental fashion will develop a little differently: https://fashion-era.com/fashion-history ... cy-fashion
- After rescuing the Dauphin, give some consideration to trying to match him up with Princess Amelia
- There is room/scope for 4-5 'New Cities' across Great Britain and perhaps a couple in Ireland
- An earlier introduction of a form of police/proto Peeler, along with eventually using technology such as 'finger marks', may have some bearing on the type of events akin to Peterloo
- There won't likely be an exact analogue to Peterloo, in the likely absence of a post Napoleonic War double dip depression (compounded by 1816 in the first hit), but there is likely to be some level of disturbance relating to the Radical cause. However, should it not be exacerbated by unemployment and all the other fun aspects of a postwar depression, it may not blow up to the same extent
- The Corn Laws situation, as briefly discussed upthread, could potentially manifest themselves in a different fashion, perhaps more expansive to include the Canadas; the roll out and spread of more productive wheat strains will have a role to play
- There will be a Pacific expedition around 1808 to try and pinpoint the origin/location of the 1808 mystery eruption
- What type of force level would be required to 'open' China and Japan earlier?
Even More Miscellaneous Errata
1.) The general principle on industry is not simply to look to expedite historical achievements, but to perfect and outdo them as and where appropriate, rendering a better railway system, better port infrastructure for steamers and a better canal network, to pluck out three examples.
2.) Another general principle is that there is to be no resting on figurative laurels and no wasted years; even the Year Without a Summer will have a purpose.
3.) Whilst other states may, in time, improve their relative position compared to @ through the inevitable spillover of technology, prosperity, knowledge and opportunity, a third principle is that Britain must not only retain her advantage gifted through the circumstances of 1794, but work to extend it. The best way to prevent costly future wars is real strength and capability, hand in hand with a financial capacity to potentially wage war that is well beyond that of any other potential enemy
4.) The British Empire should have no permanent/natural enemies, but rather having long standing interests which will influence how the policies and interests of other states are viewed
5.) A stronger Empire needs a stronger Britain, which in turn needs stronger, healthier, happier and better off people. Addressing historical failings and problems, in a realistic fashion over time, is one means of achieving this
6.) Whilst Britain reached her apex of relative power in the mid 19th century, this was fleeting, with the seeds of future problems and flaws being sewn in those golden years of glory. A slight alteration to relative fortunes is not sufficient for fundamental change, so a more ambitious. calculated and at all times intelligent trajectory would seem to be necessary. The nature of the British governmental system at this time is quite well disposed towards putting in place a long term approach, what with a long period of Tory government on the horizon
7.) Yet another general principle is not to mess up progress by trying to go too fast and figuratively getting out of control. There are multiple established beliefs, interests and positions that stand in the way of what might be considered to be a better future state of affairs, but trying to headbutt through each and every one of them isn't the most efficient or cost effective approach. Some things are better done in stages; the 'advance by rushes' principle talked about upthread
8.) Some approaches and indeed solutions are uniquely available to a Britain that possesses relative foreknowledge and is able to plan for and act in the very long term time frame. For example, the initial number of Voortrekkers in the Cape Colony was perhaps 14,000, whose relative influence and position could potentially be changed through a consistent flow of 5000-10000 British and Irish colonists per year over 40 to 50 years, shifting the underlying basis not just for @ conflicts in the 1880s-1900s, but political and ideological positions that had a great bearing upon the subsequent development of Southern Africa
9.) Britain prospered in the First Industrial Revolution, but in the Second Industrial Revolution of @ 1870-1914, characterised by steel, chemicals, electricity, telegraphy, railways, machinery and oil, it was distinctly behind the United States and Germany. This needs to change and will do so here
10.) I'm loathe to indulge in policies of 'beggar thy neighbour' or otherwise seeking to hamstring potential competitors of 70-100 years down the line, but as well as some rather common sense measures to avoid gifting advantages to some competitors, a bit of foreknowledge enables Britain to craft a malleable strategic approach, rather than being hidebound in particular doctrines
- Boney captured or sunk off Egypt
- A follow up embassy to Macartney to be dispatched to China in due course, with new inventions/capabilities + ISOTed additions utilised to try and secure its goals
- Push Jenner's smallpox vaccine
- Antibiotics, antiseptics, hand washing, germ theory and the 'discovery' of iodine and betadine
- A Royal Commission on the Health of the Army
- Nelson to have success at Tenerife with larger forces; Abercromby to command larger invasion/descent upon Porto Rico
- Support and accentuate Mungo Park's exploration
- Nelson survives any Trafalgar analogue, whilst Pitt lives a fair bit longer and doesn't resign in 1801 in different circumstances
- Expedite moves towards the abolition of the slave trade and slavery
- Build the canal and railway networks wisely, and in a manner that precludes certain pernicious bottlenecks from the @ future
- Plan and build RN and civil naval infrastructure over time, whilst planning and reserving land for expansion of some dockyards
- Buy or seize some of the miscellaneous Atlantic islands in due course
- Take the Rio de la Plata/Argentina during the course of any war with Spain
- Manage and minimise the Great Trek, whilst also working to stymie the Mfecane
- Consolidate RN shipbuilding types, with frigate construction to be focused upon the 18 and 24 pounder types (12 x 18pdr assorted frigates in different classes in each of 1794-1800 for 84 vs 35, then 48 x 46 gun Ledas, 36 x 48 gun Apollos and 36 x 52 gun Livelys as and if needed; 36 x 24pdr fourth rates built as frigates along the lines/design of Southampton class from 1796-1805 parallel to the first half of the maximal potential programme)
- As mentioned above, increase number of 1st and 2nd rates from 22 and 18/25 to 32 x 125-150 gun 1st rates and 32 x 100 gun 2nd rates during the FRW period; a minimum of 136 x 84 gun 3rd rates to be built in this period
- Early bicycle invention and popularity
- Increase food production and net calorific intake over several generations to lead to improvements in average height, general health and reduction in impact of disease
- Army to build up to a theoretical maximum of 140* Regiments of Foot, plus the Rifle regiments and Foot Guards, along with West India Regiments, KGL and other formations; some reduction in total regiments very possible after general peace, with higher number units to possibly transition into a reserve role not seen in @
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
In any event, the first order of business will be calling upon Pitt the Younger at his residence in Keston, Bromley. There are options of how to make the 54 mile journey, some being a bit more noticeable than others.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
Very very true for the AH board....page after page after page after page....Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:09 am
- Very often on this site, other sites and in AH in general, we get caught up in the technicalities of Gun X or Engine Y, .
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
The Dungeon Dimensions??Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:51 pm
Finally, there is always a catch, and here it is this: when you open a door long enough, sometimes some uninvited presences can slip in. Now, when you are dealing with something as innocuous as a house door on a summer night, that can be limited to flies, mosquitoes, or, if you dwell in the more bracing parts of Australia, a snake. A pathway through time and space is something not really innocuous, and requires a lot of energy, which acts as a figurative mile-wide spotlight turned skyward for *anything else* that might be ‘out there’.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
That comment was specifically made for AH.com, where the minutiae of small arms calibres lead to conflicts close to wars, and any failure to genuflect at the altar of the Cult of 15”/42 can lead to a figurative jihad!Paul Nuttall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 10:11 amVery very true for the AH board....page after page after page after page....Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:09 am
- Very often on this site, other sites and in AH in general, we get caught up in the technicalities of Gun X or Engine Y, .
I like to delve into detail as much as or probably more than the average chap, but I draw the line at ‘going to the blankets’ over the merits of an 8mm Mauser vs a .308, .303 and other broadly equivalent calibres.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
The Discworld version is a bit too whimsical and nice for what I have in mind…Paul Nuttall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 10:14 amThe Dungeon Dimensions??Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:51 pm
Finally, there is always a catch, and here it is this: when you open a door long enough, sometimes some uninvited presences can slip in. Now, when you are dealing with something as innocuous as a house door on a summer night, that can be limited to flies, mosquitoes, or, if you dwell in the more bracing parts of Australia, a snake. A pathway through time and space is something not really innocuous, and requires a lot of energy, which acts as a figurative mile-wide spotlight turned skyward for *anything else* that might be ‘out there’.
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Re: The Cards Reshuffled
I would say at least we wouldn't go off on a food tangent...but it looks like we may....Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 10:27 amThat comment was specifically made for AH.com, where the minutiae of small arms calibres lead to conflicts close to wars, and any failure to genuflect at the altar of the Cult of 15”/42 can lead to a figurative jihad!Paul Nuttall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 10:11 amVery very true for the AH board....page after page after page after page....Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:09 am
- Very often on this site, other sites and in AH in general, we get caught up in the technicalities of Gun X or Engine Y, .
I like to delve into detail as much as or probably more than the average chap, but I draw the line at ‘going to the blankets’ over the merits of an 8mm Mauser vs a .308, .303 and other broadly equivalent calibres.