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THÁLATTA! THÁLATTA!

Canberra April 2000

The briefing officer was quite nervous. Upon this briefing, much for which he had worked depended.

‘CDF required a rapid study of why our helicopter procurement has been faulty. The written briefs were provided last week, and this brief just covers the main issues so that they can be addressed tomorrow at the meeting of the security committee of cabinet. Sirs, in 1997, Australia signed a $667 million contract with Kaman to purchase 11 upgraded SH-2G(A) Super Seasprites, with modernised avionics. This compact helicopter design was thought to be well suited to operation from the RAN’s ANZAC Class frigates, and even from patrol boats with helicopter decks. The first SH-2G(A) is not planned to be built until 2003, but so far we have learned that placing modern avionics into a 1960s airframe is challenging indeed. The USN has warned us that the project is risky. The project is already a year behind schedule, costs are rising and the program was being used as a negative case study in the Australian Defence College’s leadership and ethics course. Their forecasts of per-helicopter costs indicate that the risks have not been well considered, and that they may eventually rise to be enough to buy and equip any new naval helicopter on the market.’

‘It is now definitely known that the TNI-AL has sent the Type 209 class submarine Nanggala on patrol off the West Australian coast, and that they have opened negotiations with the USSR for Kilo class submarines. We are informed that the initial concept is two refurbished second hand vessels, the two currently being built for speculative sale, and up to four more. So we cannot afford to have programs which may risk delay to capability.’

He paused and continued. ‘The SH-2G(A) program risks this. Worse, investigation has concluded that the cost bases are not firm, that they are considered mere estimates, given the project’s consistent history of unexpected issues to date. They are predicting serious cost and time overruns. So we look to be facing a classic managerial sunk cost decision, and that in the middle of a war where we cannot possibly afford it. The options presented in the written pack are cancellation or revision.’

The Chief of Defence Force merely said one word. ‘Revision?’

‘Revision, sir. When delivered early in 2001, the SH-2G(A) Super Seasprite will be the most advanced intermediate maritime helicopter available, if it is delivered on time, and to be frank the USN does not think that’s possible. In reviewing the program, neither do we. The SH-2G(A) includes an Integrated Tactical Avionics System or ITAS being developed by Litton Guidance and Control Systems. The system will contain four active matrix liquid crystal colour multi-function displays, two smart data entry units with liquid crystal colour displays, and two redundant mission data processors. Hands on collective and cyclic stick controls and a multi- slew controller are interfaced with ITAS to provide a robust human-machine interface. The high level of automation provided by the onboard computer systems and advanced avionics is supposed to allow a two-person crew to successfully perform the missions of the SH-2G(A) during day, night and adverse weather conditions. The level of automation is unprecedented, and that is the area of highest risk. It is also equipped with advanced technology composite main rotor blades. The new composite blade is designed for longer life and greater damage tolerance. It also provides a significant performance increase that translates into increased payload, extended range and greater time on station. On top of that the aircraft features a digital Automatic Flight Control System or AFCS which provides it the capability to fly through an automatic approach to a ship or airfield and to conduct automatic flight patterns such as for search-and-rescue. It also maintains set heading, altitude, and airspeed for point-to-point navigation, and includes an automatic hover hold capability. The AFCS is integrated with two redundant Litton LN100 embedded GPS inertial systems, which provides a highly accurate and reliable navigation solution. Key systems included in the SH-2G(A) are the Telephonics APS 143B(V)3 radar with ISAR capability, the Raytheon AAQ-27 (3FOV) FLIR, the Elisra AES-210 Electronics Support Measure suite, and a Link 11 system being developed by Litton. Weapons include the Kongsberg Penguin missile and the Raytheon MK-46 torpedo.’

The CDF lifted his hand. ‘Wait, so we have combined two highly advanced and unproven automated operations systems, a new and untried rotor system, three complex sensor systems plus an ASM and normal torpedoes?’

‘Yes sir.’

‘In a forty year old design? I am somewhat incredulous. We have done this when we really, really need dippers and only have a minor capability since we converted six of the eight remaining old Seakings to utility birds?’

‘Yes sir.’

‘And people wonder why this is red-flagged. We are trying to squeeze a quart into a pint pot, and it’s the wrong pint pot. So you are recommending going for a pretty much straight SH-2G, and dumping ITAS, AFCS and the composite rotor?’

‘Yes sir, that basically takes the risk out, but it means one more crewman and somewhat reduced mission capability. Kaman state that if we do this, costs will decrease and they can guarantee delivery in a year. It’s quote a plain vanilla aircraft upgrade unquote. That still leaves us with no effective dippers, so we are recommending a MOTS MH-60R buy, the LAMPS Mark III Block II Upgrade which entered production this year. It’s a good complement to the 16 S-70B-2 we have.’

The CDF considered this for a few seconds. ‘I do not see that we have any choice, and the papers make that plain. Twelve MH-60R is just essential with the increasing submarine threat. So I want a shorter presentation for the Security Committee of Cabinet for the meeting tomorrow.’

He sat back in his chair.

‘Very well.’ Then he smiled mirthlessly. ‘Now, hit me with the other briefing, the emergency fall back option brief that Chief of Navy thinks I do not know about yet.’

CN ostentatiously cocked his eye at CDF. ‘Your spies appear to be everywhere, sir.’

‘Not so, but this outrageous proposal has leaked at this level.’ He wagged his finger at CN, ‘worse, CN, it was leaked to CAF. I must say that it’s ridiculous, atavistic, and would never get the slightest consideration if the Chief of Airforce had not recommended it to me, enthusiastically I might add, as a cheap, fast and zero risk way to take the pressure off the unholy mess that his,’ he paused for a second ‘how did he say it, pet idiots was, I think, the term, at Maritime Patrol Group have made of the P-3C force. If it buys time to sort out that disaster I am very interested indeed because he is very interested indeed. CAF has already found the people who caused this mess years back and has done the most ghastly things to them.’

The CAF was grinning.

He looked at his service chiefs. ‘All levity aside, gentlemen, it’s already on the agenda for tomorrow gentlemen, that’s how bad the P-3C and AP-3C mess really is. I might also add that buying four more TAP-3B and four EP-3C from Davis Monthan are also on that agenda. While the EP-3C is a new capability we very much need due to the unfolding war to our north, the TAP-3B is a given simply because we must take all the basic aircrew training circuits and bumps load off the P-3C airframes. It’s also useful as a transport supporting Orions at Curtin and Scherger. Now, get on with it.’

CN nodded at his briefer, who loaded a second brief.

‘Sir, still sitting in storage at East Sale after all these years are ten ex-RAN Grumman Tracker aircraft and associated spare parts, an 11th is part of the museum at Nowra. The slide shows the details of the aircraft.’

S-2G – Serial 152800
S-2G – Serial 152805
S-2G – Serial 152809
S-2G – Serial 152811
S-2G – Serial 152837
S-2G – Serial 153566
S-2G – Serial 153576
S-2G – Serial 153578
S-2E – Serial 153598
S-2E – Serial 153604

‘The unsolicited proposal has come from internal consideration about our coastal ASW capability. It was driven by numerous Tracker conversions for fire fighting in the USA and Canada and the existence of many Trackers in storage at Davis-Monthan. The type remains in service with four nations, mostly converted to turboprop. The proposal is to strip, refurbish and fully re-life the airframes, and convert them to turboprops with Pratt and Whitney PT6A engines, upper end ones, probably based on the A-68 for about 2,000hp each instead of the R-1820 radials at about 1,500 hp each. That won’t actually cost any endurance as the AVTUR has a higher energy density than AVGAS and the engines are very efficient: the additional power will have a direct tactical application. Fit would be MOTS as fitted to the S-3 Viking just the latest versions, so AN/APS-137 ISA, FLIR, AN/ASQ-81 MAD, AN/ASN-92 INS with doppler radar navigation and TACAN, the usual torpedoes and such. As we continued to use Trackers until 1985, we still have a small residue of aircrew and ground crew with at least some Tracker expertise, and more in the emergency reserves. We have also made inquiries with the USN and it turns out that of the 1200 or so made there are still hundreds of Trackers in storage, although the bulk of them have been scrapped. They did point out that scrapping is by batch and occurs after the local scrappers have totally stripped the airframes, so quote many airframes still exist in the scrapyards, intact, just entirely stripped unquote. We will further investigate that if only for major structural spares.’

The general nodded. ‘Where would the refurbishment be done?’

‘Locally, sir, no doubt about that at all. We believe that we have identified a consortium which could do the work out of Avalon. The historical flight blokes at Nowra are a weird mob, but they’re wired in to the industry.’

‘Are these existing ADF stored airframes capable of being refurbished?’

‘Yes sir. They were fully refurbished in the late 70s when we acquired them after that maniac burned our existing Tracker fleet to ashes at Nowra. All the G’s came from Davis Monthan and all were low-use airframes. They have been properly stored since. The ones still there at Davis-Monthan are mostly even lower use. Sir, as the Taiwanese and the Argentine Navy has shown the turbo conversion is zero risk and highly effective, their six S-2T were converted by IAI in the 90s and are excellent aircraft.’

CDF considered this. ‘Very well, I can tell you that this will get up, and that it solves the other part of the very serious problem we have with the Orions. On my authority – and yes the Minister is aware – get a team off to the USA quickly, within a week. We are looking at more than ten aircraft, more likely forty as a minimum, two Squadrons plus spares and training. That’s the minimum given local patrol requirements to protect our critical offshore oil and gas sector, iron ore and coal exports off the Kimberly coast and from Dampier-Karratha, Newcastle and the Queensland coal ports. Also look for other variants aircraft like the cargo version, and any remaining AEW types, Tracers they were called? Anyway, we’re entering new territory gents, so I want no options ruled out, and any existing options retained. Especially if it costs relatively little to do so.’

He turned to his Chief of Staff. ‘Draft a request please, from me to the USN CNO, asking that the USN suspend any further disposal of any remaining Tracker, Trader and Tracer aircraft in storage, pending an ongoing review of our requirements, as we will be returning the type to service to meet ...’ he considered this for a moment, ‘... to meet changing strategic circumstances caused by the developing confrontation with Indonesia. We’ll get some solid numbers around that after tomorrow’s meeting of the Security Committee of Cabinet.’

There was open surprise at this. The General smiled grimly.

‘It gets very close hold now, gents. Chief of Navy, form a small cell, as small as you can and men you know and trust personally. They will work only to you, and again personally. Their task is to find a cheap and fast way to get a Squadron of twelve of these aircraft to sea on some sort of aviation capable vessel, plus some helicopters. So look at a very, very cheap option for some sort of carrier we can build or convert quickly, but which has the primary purposes of serving as a sealift ship, onshore force support logistics vessel and floating helicopter base. And stop bloody grinning.’

‘A Woolworth carrier, got it, sir. Will Navy operate the Trackers?’

‘Yes. And be warned, there will be another requirement to look at numbers at three levels. The first is a current-plus estimate assuming two operational Indonesian submarines. The second will be a future estimate assuming four operational Indonesian submarines. The third is obviously a remote possibility, general war. Base your numbers on those three strategic assumptions. Take it as read that one Squadron will be operating from Curtin to protect the North-West Shelf.’

oOo

May 2000 Army HQ Russell Offices Canberra

The Land Forces Commander looked tired, but then they all did. The meeting was ad-hoc, but that was fine, they had to deal with – more a question of philosophy than anything else. That said, things were moving very fast, as the recent purchase of 141 ex-British Army FV 433 Abbott self-propelled 105mm guns had shown. The first of them were going through a refurbishment and update program at ADI’s facilities as they sat there. The Land Forces Commander smiled to himself, ADI was seriously stretched now, with a big order for new Bushmasters. So serious was the shortage of vehicles that the previous year, after brief consideration, JRA at Moorebank had been instructed to extend the production of Landrover Perentie softskins, with an order larger than the entire production run to date, at least in the 6x6 vehicle range. They looked like becoming the standard vehicle of a lot of the ARES, at least. Orders for ASLAV had also spiked, something the Canadians were very happy with. But that was a drop in the bucket and a very expensive drop, too.

Chief of Army nodded, and the Land Commander’s staff started the brief.

‘Sirs, as the A2 brief showed, things are not going to get better between Australia and Indonesia until they’ve gotten a lot worse. Essentially we are now in a second Confrontation, with the USSR reprising its role during the first Confrontation. Unlike the period of the first Confrontation, Indonesia now has the capability of posing a direct, company-scale land threat to Australia from Karratha to Thursday Island. Their small, fast LST might not survive such a mission but with the right weather and attacks on our coastal surveillance assets, there is little doubt that they could achieve a 50% success rate in such raids. We have deployed ARES battalions to the airfields at Curtin and Scherger, but essentially we have few means of protecting the economic assets and population sprinkled across the north. We do have a good offshore and onshore surveillance capability, Navy has rapidly re-invented the coastwatcher network, we have expanded the Pilbara Regiment and the Far North Queensland Regiment, and NORFORCE has an integrated surveillance and reporting system up and running. What we do not have is the presence and response forces outside fixed garrisons at the airfields, Dampier, and Darwin. We do not have the regular forces to deal with this, given the expeditionary demands and demands in Timor.’

He brought another slide up on the screen.

‘Therefore we have developed this solution.’

He used the laser pointer to point out the main thrusts of the argument. ‘Firstly, the Expeditionary Brigade is mostly regular and will be equipped with standard US equipment, Abrams, Bradleys and M108 155mm SPG and such. It is designed to be plug and play into a standard US Army or USMC force structure. It’s already a heavy brigade and will come in time to more resemble a light division. The lower-end regular units and ARES are being upskilled and re-armed. The older Leopards will cascade to them, we are refurbishing the 60-odd remaining Centurions, and we are purchasing additional Leopard I both as attrition replacements and to convert to Marksman SPAAG. These, along with the usual towed artillery and the refurbished FV-443A Yeramba 105mm SPG will form the heavy equipment core of the forces projected to Timor and any other areas for COIN and preservation of the independence of Timor L’este. They will also form the main force regional garrison of the critical Darwin-Katherine corridor.’

His pointer swept the enormous region from Karratha to Cape York. ‘This region is larger than Europe, with the population, outside Darwin, of a modest European town. It is also absolutely vital to have small, long ranged, powerful forces able to both roam this region and to respond to and heavy raids against the infrastructure nodes in it. Perentie does the recce units well – we have revived the old name of Long Range Desert Groups for them to give ‘em something to aspire to. We have trialled the response requirement with a company-sized unit built on ASLAV and Bushmasters. In mobility terms it works. Towed artillery was found to be unsuitable to support this unit, and none of the tracked vehicles we trialled could keep up. The requirement was for a 500km approach over unsealed roads exposed to mining, in eight hours, followed by an attack on a raiding force. The Bushmaster and ASLAV can do this, yet both have serious weaknesses in firepower terms. No northern hemisphere country has anything like this issue, so we looked at a country with a very similar situation, South Africa.’

He changed the slide again.

‘We conducted two exercises where some of the ASLAV were designated as Rhino G6, and others as Rooikat 105. The Rhino is a South African mine-protected self-propelled 155mm howitzer. It was developed as a turreted, self-propelled variant of the G5 howitzer series, mating the gun to a six-wheeled armoured chassis. Design work on the Rhino began in the late 1970s to replace the obsolescent Sexton being retired from service with the artillery regiments of the South African Army. Serial production started in 1988 and concluded last year. Both Denel, which builds the turret, and Land Systems OMC, which produces the chassis, have stated that the vehicle can be reintroduced into production without difficulty. Cost will be about $3,300,000 per unit and an initial batch for trials can be delivered by South Africa from reserve stock. When introduced, the Rhino was the most mobile self-propelled howitzer in service. Its chassis was engineered to be mine-resistant and blastproof, allowing it to survive multiple TM-46 detonations during trials. The Rhino was conceived as a wheeled rather than a tracked vehicle for this purpose, as well as to allow it to deploy long distances by road without consuming excessive quantities of fuel or requiring a tank transporter. The same conditions apply here in northern Australia. Rhino entered service during the last two years of the South African Border War, frequently shelling positions held by the People's Armed Forces for the Liberation of Angola (FAPLA) during the Battle of Cuito Cuanavale. Their ability to bombard a target and change positions rapidly in less than two minutes, with minimal preparation, greatly reduced the threat posed by retaliatory Angolan air raids and counter-battery fire. When we conducted our exercises with three designated Rhino attached to the experimental force, the effect on the red unit was devastating. They were not and could not be prepared against 155mm fire. We assess that a four vehicle unit, three 155mm Rhino and a Rhino chassis configured as an ammunition and stores support vehicle…’

Land Commander interrupted. ‘Do you have any additional details of that battle?’

‘Yes sir,’ he brought up another slide after a moment of fiddling about. ‘The first G6 prototype appeared in 1981, during the height of the South African Border War. Four engineering development models were being tested with the South African Defence Force by the mid-1980s. In October 1987, the South African government ordered all the Rhinos deployed to Angola for combat trials as part of Operation Hooper. One suffered an engine failure, so only three actually reached Angola, where they joined expeditionary troops of the 4 South African Infantry Battalion. Operating as an independent battery, the three Rhinos were instrumental in the bombardment of the strategic Angolan airfield at Cuito Cuanavale. In this their crews were significantly aided by South African special forces acting as forward artillery observers near the airfield; on one occasion the Rhinos were able to destroy four Angolan MiG-21s on the ground as they attempted to take off. The heightened artillery threat to the Cuito Cuanavale airfield eventually forced the Angolan Air Force to relocate their operations to another airstrip at Menongue, which was beyond the range of the G5 towed gun and Rhino but severely diminished their ability to time and execute their missions, given Menongue's distance from the actual fighting. However, they also began making South African artillery positions the primary targets of their raids, forcing the G6 crews to constantly shift positions after each bombardment. The Rhinos themselves were considered so valuable that an air defence contingent from South Africa's 10 Anti-Aircraft Regiment was subsequently attached to the battery for the remainder of the campaign.’

‘Hence your three plus a support chassis concept.’

‘Yes sir. Even if one vehicle fails, then two 155mm will be available, and two is the minimum to obtain the desired combat effect.’

‘Hmm. Why not just get Ratel as well? Go ahead please.’

‘Sir.’ He got back on to his brief. ‘This still leaves the unit short of direct-fire capability, and again the South African warfare experience was searched for an answer.’

He brought up another slide.

‘This is the Rooikat 105, a development of the Rooikat, which is a South African armoured reconnaissance vehicle equipped with a stabilised 76mm high velocity gun for organic anti-tank and fire support purposes. It is capable of giving the same performance and using the same ammunition as the Oto Melara 76 naval gun, albeit with new percussion primers. In 1990 an upgrade and redesign programme was started by Reumech OMC to customise the Rooikat for the international market, and by 1994 the development of a Rooikat 105 prototype with a 105mm rifled gun was completed. The Rooikat 105 is designed for high mobility day and night combat operations. Passive image intensifiers and thermal imaging equipment for night driving, navigation and weapon deployment permit round-the-clock combat operations. The Rooikat 105 is equipped with a GT7 105mm anti-tank gun. The gun fires the full range of NATO full-pressure 105mm ammunition including generation I, II and III rounds. The gun, fitted with a 51-caliber thermal sleeve encased barrel, fires six rounds a minute. There are two 7.62mm machine guns, one co-axial to the main armament and one at the commander's position, for general purpose ground and air defence. The vehicle is equipped with two banks of 81mm smoke grenade launchers, mounted in a forward firing position on each side of the turret. The system is electrically operated. The smoke grenades form a dense protective smoke screen, which can be sustained using an exhaust smoke generator. The digital fire control system takes data from a suite of sensors and provides an automatic fire control solution. Automatic data input includes target range from a laser rangefinder, target speed and direction derived from tracking the target, crosswind speed, weapon tilt and the characteristics of the weapon. Manual data input includes ammunition type and environmental data. The fire control system allows the Rooikat to engage enemy targets while on the move across rough terrain. The time between laser ranging the target and firing is approximately two seconds. Three variations of fire directing systems were offered with this vehicle. The most complex system incorporates a primary stabilised gunner's sight, automatic computation and implementation of ballistic offset of the weapon, electro-mechanical gun control, stabilised main weapon, gunner's sight with day / night channel slaved to the main weapon and an independent panoramic commander's sight. We have examined the Rooikat 105, and determined that it can be fitted with the standard 105mm gun that we use, as well as the standard fire direction systems as fitted to the Abrams tanks we are acquiring. As Rooikat 105 is not in production we have determined that licence production of an upgraded variant here is possible. ADI has indicated that their expansion program can deal with this, provided that they can commence with complete chassis from Land Systems OMC in South Africa. Land Systems OMC have indicated that they are willing to sell a licence and to work cooperatively with ADI, especially as we will be heavily reliant on them for components and technology transfer.’

Chief of Army nodded. ‘So the philosophy you are proposing here is that these highly mobile striking groups be formed and deployed to the north, with ARES being the backbone of that concept? So we can expand from the regional units?’

‘Yes sir, and the proof-of-concept unit proposed is 11th Brigade’s 12th/16th Hunter River Lancers,’ he brought up another slide, ‘currently they are a M113A1 APC regiment. Regimental Headquarters is at Tamworth, NSW, 'A' Squadron is at Armidale, Muswellbrook and Tamworth, NSW, and 'B' Squadron is at Caboolture, Queensland. With the current expansion, these squadrons are growing and with one in NSW and the other in Queensland, gives us the ability to form two of these formations in quite different environments, continental temperate and coastal subtropical. This will challenge the regiment, especially as we need these formations formed quickly. The Bushmasters, ASLAVs and Rhinos are no issue in terms of being able to obtain them, and Land Systems OMC have guaranteed delivery of four Rooikat 105 in six months, the prototype and three converted 76mm variants. That’s two each, enough for proof of concept trials.’ He shrugged. ‘the Artillery Regiment is not happy with not owning the Rhinos, but Commander 2 Div told them not to be greedy in view of the FV-443 Yeramba and M109 buys. In all honesty, we can see them getting Rhinos as well down the track depending on how much this Confrontation deepens.’

oOo

Arizona, June 2000

Captain Nigel di Pietro did not much like his Christian name. Fortunately, after a particularly egregious (not to say truly spectacular) example of the sort of drunken foolishness very junior naval aviators were well known for, he had acquired the nickname of Salvatore. Only his family even remembered his real Christian name these days.

He’d started off his flying career on Trackers, flying off the old carrier Melbourne, and was as happy as a clam to be put in charge of the project to return them to service. Especially as he’d been promised command of the second Squadron of them even if he was far too senior for the job. He’d been happy to take a temporary rank reduction if needed, and been told that was not really necessary if he handled this well.

His staff officer was reading the brief one more time. ‘So the President’s name is Bradley Peek and United Aviation Company has 11 Tracers, 91 Trackers and three Traders. There’s three more Traders at Davis-Monthan but he has the only Tracers left. We’re not very interested in his Trackers, as there’s 285 still at DM. That said we’re very interested in his ability to refurbish wings and tailplanes. The Americans were happy to stop all Tracker sales and disposals for us and are watching the conversion process in Avalon with great interest.’
http://grummantracker.com/unitedaerotracerphotos.htm

‘Sir, the company blurb says that, and I quote, with over 60 acres of storage and warehouse space located next to Davis Monthan AFB, UAC has been operation at this location for over 50 years. Yadda yadda, We apologise, but unfortunately UAC’s Tucson facility is closed to the public, and a “no trespassing” policy is strictly enforced. In certain circumstance, special requests maybe granted, either for government or civilian purposes, but they must have prior written approval by management.’

He looked up. ‘This we have, of course.’

‘The guts of it is as briefed, since 1956, United Aeronautical Company has established itself as one of the most diversified support spare parts companies in the industry over here, while maintaining what the USN says is the highest standards for service and quality. Their record of supplying, overhauling, and manufacturing aircraft parts is reported by the USN as being of a very high standard. They have over 200,000 square feet of weatherproof warehouse space with 50,000 sq. square feet of Class A repair and production shops just minutes from the Burbank, California airport. That’s actually their main facility of course, the 60 acres of aircraft storage and warehousing here in Tucson is where many of their airframes are, including all the S-2 variants. They also have aircraft facilities in Sacramento, and a commercial office in Bogota, Colombia.’

‘We will see about today, then. If this goes as planned, we’ll get over there and examine this 400,000 line items of parts and bits and pieces and above all their integrated computer network tracking and parts management system. Well, let’s hit the road and meet Mr Peek.’

oOo

Bradley Peek did not normally come to the Tucson boneyard very often. But he’d haunted the place over the last week as they did the airframe inspections, he was well connected and the USN had been both informative and a bit brusque. He’d been fascinated to find out that the Australians were returning the Trackers to service, a little annoyed that Davis Monthan still had a large stock of the machines, and then thoughtful as he considered the long-term implications of a large number of S-2’s returning to service with a full upgrade which actually re-lifed them. UAC could do full airframe upgrades, and the long-term business prospects were very interesting. They had been gaming scenarios for days before this meeting.

oOo

Captain di Pietro looked at the tattered rows of aircraft sitting on the sand, faded paint peeling in the dazzling sunshine. The white RAN uniforms made he and his staff officer hard to look at, so bad was the glare.

‘Well, Brad, we’ve danced the appropriate dance for the last hour and both established that the other’s a sterling chap, and is out for advantage. That’s fine, now shall we get down to actual business? You will have done airframe surveys on the S-2’s, C-1’s and E-1’s.’

He waited expectantly.

Peek was not in the least bit fazed. ‘Of course. And the airframes are quite sound. There’s some corrosion but we’ve found none that is structural. The climate here is so arid that it, at least, is no issue. I understand that you have found corrosion in your own ten S-2’s?’

Neatly fielded, thought di Pietro. ‘Yes, in the usual moisture collection points. If we can reach a deal on airframes, I have authority to discuss wings for the S-2. And that, of course, leads to long term parts support.’

And back to my court, thought Peek we do not normally sell entire airframes but are happy with the chance to do so. He’s saying that a good deal there will provide the opportunity for long term support.

‘So you are saying that a good deal on airframes will provide the opportunity for long term support.’

‘Correct, Brad,’ we are immediately reactivating one Squadron with our own aircraft and some purchased from the USN’s stock here. A second Squadron is highly probable.’

‘So that’s 24 S-2’s and you have 10 of your own. So you’ll buy 14 from Davis next door. Plus the Traders. Why the Traders?’

The Captain gestured at the Trader airframe in front of him. ‘A cheap way of obtaining a standard trainer for all the basic flight training, including long distance navigation as we can use them for cargo runs to the bare base at Curtin. And the numbers are somewhat higher. We are planning on a first buy of 30. We are carefully examining expansion beyond that number.’

Whoa, thought Peek, so they really are thinking long term here, that’s 12 machines operational with eight per Squadron cycling through maintenance and in reserve. No wonder they want all six Traders still in captivity. Engines. And I’ll bet my bottom dollar that no more Trackers will be disposed of for several years at least!

‘You are going to re-engine them with turboprops. You have to be. We can certainly do a mutually profitable deal here, as the radial engines are the real problem with Trackers. They are a high demand item for my business with fire fighting Trackers, and if I can get a full lock on the engines and engine spare parts holdings you will be replacing with turboprops, I will entirely lose any reluctance to part with these three airframes,’ Peek said slowly, ‘and I’ll give you a good price on them. That airframe price will improve if you want stripping to a defined common point and airframe remediation to a defined point; survey, paint strip and repaint. We can do that work and it will be to a very good quality. That will also have to include some systems work, mostly on the hydraulics and undercarriage. We have the full range of parts for the undercarriage, and we manufacture them on a proper Grumman license too. We also have excellent standards and we can prove that incontrovertibly by referring you to our customers.’

The Captain nodded. ‘We noted that, and believe that you may wish to explore a relationship with Phillips Aviation, a new company forming in Melbourne to do the Tracker rebuilds. That would be to our benefit as they will have the deep maintenance contract for these types. A partner in that company is Gippsland Aviation, which has received large orders for their GA-8 Airvan. They are currently in rapid growth. You know that we are partially mobilising due to the issues to our north.’

Peek nodded. ‘Yes. Interesting. That seems sensible, no guarantees of course, but you will become the major military operator of Trackers if you have 46 airframes!’

Salvatore di Pietro smiled. ‘Oh, did I forget to mention that we also want all 11 of your Tracers?’

Peek managed to control his surprise. ‘You might have missed that minor point.’

They let him think.

‘I’ll stay with my previous comments, and reinforce them. We can negotiate a favourable, hell a very favourable, price on the airframes if it buys my company into the long term support of your fleet, starting with a partial refurbishment here to bring them all to a common level of condition for rebuild including serviceable undercarriages and hydraulic systems, including wing folding for obvious reasons. Hell, at least then you can at least tow the things properly, which removes the chance of airframe damage if nothing else and makes shipping them very much easier. That means that we have to work very closely with your company to make sure that airframe status and parts, well, the whole configuration really, is common with zero IT problems or glitches across the airframe transfer interface. Which means they may well be very interested in our parts tracking and availability control system. Which ties us straight back to our core business here.’

He paused again. ‘We have the only remaining Tracers. I could gouge you for short term profit, yet that would be foolish, I think.’ He glanced at the oddly domed airframes. ‘I will use the leverage, though, I’d be nuts not to. If these are fully refurbished they will be both very economical to operate and entirely re-lifed. Twenty to thirty years of service easily as machines of this era were all built to entirely different landing cycle standards. Buying in to through-life support is more sensible for my company.’

Salvatore nodded. ‘I believe that we can negotiate on that sort of basis. We have a representative of Phillips Aviation with us, Name’s Johannes Tranter, good guy, aviation engineer, call him Joh. He’s over looking over records for Trackers at Davis right now, and part of his role is to sort out supply of certain parts and the support of aircraft systems. He can discuss all that, and your ability to survey and fully refurbish wings and tail empennage is also worth discussing. Hell, you may wind up looking at equity in Philips Aviation.’

‘That is an option which will bear very careful examination. I have to admit,’ said Peek ‘that I never did think that I’d see the Tracers returned to flight. If I may ask, why them and not a newer aircraft?’

‘Time, commonality and money, basically. The task we want them for would be over-serviced with a Hawkeye, and none are available from here anyway. New ones are far too much capability for the operational role we want, broad area ocean surveillance. If we are rebuilding our own Trackers and Tracers are actually available – and we were astonished to find that 11 were – then it saves a lot of time and money and we already have men who can fly them, so we have an operational basis. Engines and spares commonality, known performance, training commonality, many reasons all adding up to low cost and low risk. Any other aircraft adds to the number of types and the ones close to what we want in capability terms would be orphan types.’

oOo

June 2000
Rabbit Flat – Tanami Desert (400km northwest of Alice Springs)

The shattered-looking Major was sitting under the thin shade of a desert grevillea as the Rooikat-105 commander poured water over him. He was dangerously flushed and looked like a beetroot even after the water washed off the caked on red dust. The vehicles had been working in a pair for the trial.

It had not gone well.

In the sense that the 100 Days had not gone well for the Imperial German Army in 1918.

Because the American vehicle was designed without air conditioning, crews had been given individual cooling vests that circulated cooled water from outside the vehicle to the garment. But they had been designed for hot days in Europe, where a hot day was 28 C. Today was a hot day in the central Tanami.

It was 46 C.

The MGS behaved as it had in nice cool weather in the mid to low 30s. First, the computers overheated and shut down. Then the temperature rose to the point where the crew cooling jackets failed, forcing the crew to open all the hatches, rapidly filling the vehicle’s interior with very fine, iron-rich red dust, which also filled the dead computers which were not designed for such conditions, essentially ruining them. The suffering of the crew as they slowly roasted in the 60+ degrees of the vehicles interior was alleviated when the engine failed due to overheating.

The Rooikat had towed the dead MGS the last 300 kilometres. The trial had been a ‘must complete’, not a ‘drop out and try again’ which had come close to killing the MGS crew, as the damned thing still had to be steered. So they had taken turns in the driver’s seat with the hatch open, eating dust, which was at least better than frying. But the heat had still been appalling and the Major was the last man standing – or in this case collapsed into a gibbering heap.

Major Ross Vance case an eye over the MGS. Essentially, the vehicle would join its two sisters as a (temporary) pile of near-scrap; pretty much everything in it had to be replaced or serviced at depot level. He walked over to his classmate, who was at least not gasping now, although the medic had a very worried look on his dial and was packing icepacks under the Major’s armpits and in his groin.

The Corporal looked up as the other Major approached. ‘Sir, you can talk but he stays in the shade until his temp comes down. He’s on the edge of heat stroke and that’s bloody dangerous, which is why we are pouring all the chilled water we have over his head.’

‘Sure, Corp, that takes absolute precedence. ‘

‘Max, you look like death on a stick. I want to call the trial now, there’s just no point in risking men on the MGS. It just is not built for our conditions.’

His classmate just nodded his head.

oOo

Army Office

After reading the report and hearing the story of the Tanami rapid response trial, the COS just shook his head.

‘Glad everyone pulled through that in one piece. So, Vance, what’s the soldier’s five?’

‘MGS is an Italian sports car solution, at a Rolls Royce price, and we have a Holden problem. It’s just not a contender sir, not even close. Good vehicle for cold climates, essentially unworkable for us without a full redesign. It’s too vulnerable to our extremely fine dust. It’s complex. It overheats regularly, the lack of AC for the computers and crew is a showstopper. OK, it’s one less man but if you run out of ammo in the 18 round cassette the crew has to stop, get out and stand on top of the bloody thing to reload. If the crew gets an auto-loader stoppage in battle and they cannot repair it without disembarking from the vehicle and standing atop it to access the auto-loader. The remote weapon station is still big and the relatively smaller hatch makes emergency exits difficult. It’s too slow, it’s too short-ranged, it’s too complex for remote area maintenance, it’s slightly underpowered compared to Rooikat, it’s not really proven in action or by use. It’s not even totally compatible with ASLAV, as the Stryker family is based on the Piranha III, while the ASLAV is based on the Piranha I. So it’s immature and unsuitable and it costs more than double what a Rooikat costs. The other showstopper is that it’s not mine resistant and that’s the lowest risk and them using mines is the most cost effective way of jerking our chain.’

He flipped pages and gestured at the paper.



Weight MGS

18.77 tonnes Rooikat

Weight

28 tonnes
Length 6.95 m (22.92 ft) Length 7.1 m (23 ft 4 in)
8.2 m (26 ft 11 in) with gun forward
Width 2.72 m (8.97 ft) Width 2.9 m (9 ft 6 in)
Height >2.64 m (>8.72 ft) Height 2.6 m (8 ft 6 in) turret roof
Crew 3 Crew 4

Engine Caterpillar 3126 turbo diesel
260 kW (350 hp) Engine 10-cylinder water-cooled diesel
414 KW (563 hp)
Power/weight 14 hp/ton Power/weight 14.89 kW/t
Suspension 8×8 wheeled Suspension 8×8 wheeled,
Fully independent active trailing arm
Operational
range 330 miles (528 km) Operational
range 1000 km (621 mi)
Speed 60 mph (96 km/h Speed Road: 120 km/h (75 mph)
Off-road: 50 km/h (31 mph


‘By comparison, though, Ratel and Rooikat are both farm machinery, and are almost purpose-designed for our central and northern continental operating environment. Both are mine resistant and simple, both are tough as a boot, so is Rhino really and all of them can take our dust and handle the heat without issue as they were designed for those conditions. Rookat’s gun system is more reliable than MGS and can be maintained by a lesser level of trained personnel. It has lower training costs as its less sophisticated. As I mentioned, it’s also less than half the cost and needs little change to meet out requirements, and that it’s mine resistant is a serious benefit. At the end of the day, sir, I’ve heard the rumblings that we need to make these here and are moving down that path, and that also tends to rule out MGS and such. Ratel, Rooikat and Rhino we can build here. I’ve chatted to the Saffies and we can use the same engine as in the Mack heavy truck for Ratel, bigger Mack or other commercial engines , and that family can replace ASLAV if we want.’

He shrugged.

‘Sir, I know that we are getting too many systems even though there’s not much choice in a rapid expansion off our peacetime base line. OK, in the 105’s we are moving to all-L118 with towed and Yeramba and the arty boys are happy with that. Yeramba’s a medium term fix at best and it exclusively for ARES, but adding G-6 and Rooikat adds two more systems even if they use guns and ammo the same as we already use. Finally, the RRF’s are a potential logistics nightmare with five hardskins in the mix, ASLAV, Bushmaster, Ratel, Rooikat and Rhino. So that has to be consolidated.’

The COS shrugged. ‘We know, it’s just needs must when the devil drives and yes, we plan to rationalise on Saffie vehicles built here. And the devil is definitely driving. Arty’s not in a good place. Pre-Konfrontasi II, we’d already 2.5 towed systems, with a third on the horizon. With towed 105mm, and with the L118 bits mostly in storage, that was 1.5 systems, M198 towed 155mm and M777 towed 155mm on the way. The obvious solution there is to move to G-5 instead of M777 as a towed 155. Now we’re looking at three different self-propelled systems, and that’s without the possibility of picking up surplus M109s from someone in Europe being part of the ‘Oh hell, do something NOW!’ impulse due to the flare up. So we are moving to a 155mm SPG for the heavy Expeditionary Brigade, which sure as eggs is going to end up being M109A6 as all their kit must be US Army compatible. The biggest kneejerk is the second hand Yeramba 105mm SPG, which at least has barrel and ammo compatibility with the L118, and now G-6 Rhino wheeled 155mm SPG and Rooikat 105, which at least have gun tube and ammo compatibility. Longer term they will replace Yeramba and some of the towed guns but we are a long way from being there yet. No reason an evolved Rooikat can’t be used as a mobile 105mm howitzer, either if we need a lower end option than Rhino. Hell, we can pop a 105 into Rhino if we want, it would have a mountain of on-board ammo. Lots of options.’

He thought for a second. ‘Longer term, yes, evolutions of Ratel, Rooikat and Rhino will be built here with evolved Bushmaster. Yeramba, M113 and ASLAV will go away, with M113 as the last one to go. Hey, it’s demise has been predicted for decades. Heavy Brigade will have Abrams, Bradley and M109A6. But on-continent, locally built wheeled is the way we are moving and we have been moving to wheeled for years. Tracked will be the expeditionary heavy force standard. That’s the current thought, anyway.’

He stood up and walked to the window. ‘The problem is that right now we do not have much choice. Every major exercise we’ve done in the north stresses the RRF requirement, so either we do it half-baked with what kit we have and softskins, or we do it properly. The locals up there know what our half-baked response looks like so that just won’t fly. And government has said that we have to do it properly, there’s just too much export trade dependent on the mines and gas fields up there, so the mission is to provide RRF capability, but the political-economic mission is to reassure the resource sector so that international investment keeps flowing. So we have to suck it up and get on with it.’

He shrugged ruefully. ‘At least the resource sector has thrown open the doors in welcome, and says that we can use their infrastructure. That will help a bit. But yes, the RRFs will have a mix of vehicles with dissimilar systems and log footprints, and there’s just not much we can do about it given the other political, time and economic protection drivers. Luckily, they do lots of basic maintenance ability up there’

He shrugged again. ‘Army getting the dirty end of the stick, well, that’s never happened before, has it.’

Vance just shook his head. It was not despair, just rueful acknowledgement of reality.

oOo

Avalon March 2001

Brad Peek, Joh Tranter and Salvatore di Pietro looked rather approvingly at the Tracer as it was moved into the rebuild bay. It was the first to arrive from UAC. As such it was resplendent in undercoat yellow. Next to it was a collection of old, shabby-looking parts and bits and pieces on a wheeled dolly.

Peek spoke quietly. ‘We picked this airframe because it was in the worst physical condition. It occurred to us that with the original survey, plus the parts we replaced for you to examine,’ he nodded at the pile of junk, ‘this approach would give you the best possible way of assessing and quantifying the quality of our work. We might not be cheap or amazingly fast, but we do very good quality indeed. That Tracer is actually in better condition than when it originally came off the factory floor. And you can both check our word on it and verify that fact for yourselves.’

He turned to them. ‘So what did you find?’

‘One thing first, UAC’s purchase of equity in Phillips Aviation is noted and considered positively. As Project Director,’ said di Pietro formally, ‘I’ll say that our technical assessment is that UAC under-promised and over-delivered on all aspects of the airframe rebuild. We were especially impressed with the quality of the new wing spars. To the point that we wish to negotiate a contract for the supply of additional wings from UAC for the Tracker force. In addition, Government has been impressed with the cost control and the capability delivered with the existing and purchased fleet, and has approved the acquisition of another 24 Tracker airframes and the raising of the third Squadron in 2003. The first Squadron is still not complete, but the S-2T is performing very well over the North-West Shelf.’

Peek nodded. ‘So up from 40 Trackers, 11 Tracers and 6 Traders, 57 to 81 airframes. To be frank I can see you making hay while the sun shines and extending that to four. Which means four Tracker Squadrons and a Tracer Squadron by about 2005 or 2006. You are planning for a long period of conflict with Indonesia, to be honest I hope that does not eventuate.’

‘So do we, Brad. So do we.’

oOo

March 2004

Rear Admiral Derek had asked for the brief. He’d wanted to know why the project had been successful, but not either disapproved or approved – in fact, why his boss had personally placed it in a sort of limbo. Which was why the brief was on the weekend at a barbecue at his place. Fortunately, the old Captain RANR who had run the project was an old friend.

‘Well Russ, this demanded a philosophical adjustment, which demanded a cultural adjustment. Basically, people look at warships and judge them by size. If it’s a 3,000 ton frigate it’s gotta be half a billion, if it’s a 6,000 ton destroyer it’s a billion bucks. That sort of thought process. Yet the commercial world understands that size lowers costs through simplification by exploitation of volume. They regard size differently. Here we are looking at a ship displacing about the same as a supercarrier, and a ship which cannot be treated or regarded as a warship – it is an auxiliary. So what we have found Russ, and where the project has stalled, is that big solves problems and paradoxically cuts costs by trading volume for simplicity. Yet size creates conceptual barriers in our culture. So we went big to solve insuperable problems of cost, manpower and capability, only to generate an apparently impassable cultural barrier. The bare ship without combat systems is far less than half the cost of a frigate. Using merchant practises means that the ship crew module is 26 men. We recommended a modular approach to the crew as well as to everything else. There are very serious risks with this, but in the main they are cultural, not operational or technological. Most of the op and tech things have been in routine commercial service for decades.’

He paused. ‘The basic philosophical approach is that size and volume reduced both risk and cost. It’s a straight trade-off very familiar to the commercial maritime world. The Navy is entirely unused to it, and in fact largely unaware that it exists.’

‘So go big and the sheer volume solves many problems. Understand that, bit puzzled as to why it generated such a strong cultural response.’

‘Well Russ, it did, despite enthusiasm for the concept from everyone, it sort of stalled and remains stalled in the issue of ‘a huge auxiliary carrier’, people can’t seem to get around the point that it’s basically a giant MAC ship with cargo, in this case boxes, replaced with a flat deck and off-loadable fuel. And that the cargo side is more important.’

‘Anyway, the last iteration uses the hull is the next upgrade of a Hapag-Lloyd Express class. It’s a 25 knotter, 75,000 gross registered, 80,000 deadweight, 310 metres or 1017 feet by 40 metres or 131 feet, 80,000shp. Single screw, slow speed diesel. It will fit into the Captain Cook graving dock but it will fill it. It cannot be bigger and still fit into the dock.’

The Deputy Chief of Navy nodded. ‘Well, that’s something.’

‘Even so, the operational constraints of the power plant are quite severe. Varying revolutions rapidly is verboten. She cannot do OOW manoeuvres. She cannot evade anything. She accelerates slowly. She goes to sea and mostly does either 17 or 25 knots. The propulsion system lives by constant revs. That’s it. No man overboard drills, or faffing about like a frigate does as she’s not a warship, she’s an auxiliary. She berths with four tugs every time. All the time. For this reason she must, and Russ I mean must, be crewed and that crew runs her like a cruise ship, same crewing methodology. We strongly recommend that her ship-crew be mercantile, her Master a commercial Master with the Master’s authority over ship manoeuvres, her Engineers mercantile engineers so no bloody know-it-all warfare officer or arrogant maniac on the Fleet Evaluation Team can Chernobyl her engine like what happened a couple of years ago. Do that and she’s on the wall for a year. And sir that means that to do this, we must first establish a RAN version of the British RFA. And this ship must be a RANFA ship. Must be. If some loony wrecks the engine, and she’s alongside for a year, well there’s no quick fixes with a Chernobyled slow speed diesel. I mean, establishing a RANFA can be done tomorrow, we have a light-frigate like helo training ship, two submarine rescue ships, two ex-oil industry vessels as offshore and Southern Ocean patrol ships and the tankers, plus Kanimbla and Manoora. And we are short of officers who are, quite frankly, wasted aboard the tankers, Kanimbla and Manoora.’

The CN nodded. ‘So if we were to do this, we have to change the culture. RFA and the RAN crew in modules under a sort of Staff Captain like the cruise industry does.’

‘Yes sir.’ The old reservist – a Merchant Navy Master hand-picked by the CN – nodded. ‘And I am pushing no barrow here. You well know how many times we broke the old Jervis Bay because some blithering idiot of a PWO on a destroyer insisted that she do OOW manoeuvres with an engineering and steering system utterly incapable of it by the nature of their design.’

The DCN nodded, thoughtful. That had been a lesson the Navy had never seemed to learn.

‘We recommend passive defences and, at most, basic point defence. She must have serious ballasting or a cargo load, or better, both. The hull’s deadweight is 80,000 tons and the hangar, flight deck, island, internal tanks, workshops, accommodation and all of that add just 25,000. That leaves us 55,000 tons to add. Add everything we can think of in terms of stores and equipment adds another 10,000 tons, adding all the fuel we can fit adds 20,000 tons. That still leaves 25,000 tons of ballast, and a lot of it has to be high. So if we make the flight deck mostly of two-inch steel that’s a bit under 5000 tons. Make the hangar floor of three inch steel adds 7500, give her a four-inch armoured belt thirty five feet high over most of her length adds 4500 tons. The plan has a mezzanine deck under the flight deck for accommodation, galleys, that sort of stuff. We can put the magazines and operations rooms, other vital points in the hull and machinery spaces behind another four inches or armour, double hull her to well above the waterline and strengthen the double hull’s structural framing and just barely get her to deadweight loading. All the extra steel and pumps and accommodation and firemains and all that stuff is costly, she now costs as much as an ANZAC class frigate.’

He paused. They both knew this was chicken feed.

‘The basic design remains the same, open sided hangar 30 feet clearance with a 20 ton travelling gantry crane on the overhead, 25 foot clearance when it’s overhead, full length straight flat flight deck, the whole lot offset twenty feet to port and ten to starboard to balance the island, big starboard side island 300 feet long on a twenty-foot sponson so the island is 300 by 40 foot, angled stack like the old Japanese Junyo class, three deck edge lifts to starboard. Hangar 800 feet by 110 feet, flight deck 1020 feet by 150 feet at its widest, 120 feet useable full length. Sir, while we recommend arrester wires, a Turbo Tracker can land aboard and take off fully loaded without them. So can a Tracer or a Trader. Hell, a Hercules can. We can COD with Hercules if we want to.’

Derek asked the inevitable question. ‘Can a jet?’

‘No, not even a Skyhawk, and we certainly did not do a big buy and refurb for Skyhawks at all, even though there’s many hundreds of them at Davis Monthan. We could with a prop bird like an old Douglas Skyraider or a Westland Wyvern, but there’s nothing like that available anywhere. The new A-29 Super Tucano would be easy and it uses the same engine family as the Tracker, a lower rated PT6A. And with armed birds and even Trackers, arrester systems are actually very desirable as they reduce risk to airframes. Also, what if some poor sod in a USN aircraft gets damaged and needs an emergency landing? No, she does need arresters. Forty million and eighteen men.’

He shrugged. ‘Modules.’

‘All that fuel’s also a problem. If we add a RAS rig to starboard she can fuel the escorts. That’s about thirty million and twelve men. We can add stuff like that all day, a full Turbo Tracker Squadron and six helicopters won’t even fill a quarter of the hangar. The three deck edge lifts are all on the starboard side, we are making them 80 feet by 50 feet, the outer 25 feet fold on to the elevator to reduce width when berthed. That means that we do not have to bother to fold the Turbo Tracker’s wings. The problem you quickly get is gold plating. Hey there’s plenty of space, so why not fill it? But it adds cost and at some point you must replace the engine system because you snuck up on it and did not notice that you now want to build a supercarrier capability.’

‘OK, exactly where is this stuck?’

‘In CN’s office. Which is your office. It has never been my business to ask why.’

‘Want a decision brief as soon as you can get it to me. I am going to ram this through. Where did you recommend the build?’

‘Samsung yard at Geoje near Busan. We can order them as sealifters, unarmed auxiliaries with an enormous helo, cargo and vehicle deck, and multiplex hangar deck, plus RAS capability. Oh, the design has a ramp aft so vehicles can drive from the hangar deck to the flight deck. It will take a tank and it’s like a hinged part of the flight deck that lowers an end to the hangar deck floor. The in-hangar cranage also speaks to that sealifter use. Hull delivery 15 months after the order, some more fit-out time here and that depends on what we put into it. No-one will even imagine that they are, in addition, a straight-deck auxiliary carrier design.’

‘How far has design work actually gone?’

‘Quite a long way, it’s at design sketch and detailed capability level. All in-house to date. Samsung have said that converting that to detailed design would be quite quick. Their systems and their people are bloody impressive.’

‘Light a fire under your people, I want to see if we can ram it through to order status in a month. Then you and some others will be off to South Korea. So get booted and spurred, Tony.’

oOo

March 2005, Samsung Heavy Industries Goeje, South Korea

It was, thought Captain Grazebrook, inevitable that their project manager would be named Mr Kim. He was looking with the professional appreciation of a master mariner at the big hull being moved alongside the fitting out pier. She certainly did not look much like a merchant ship with that flat deck and huge island, but she also did not look anything like a warship. There were no positions for the usual warship fittings, and looking at the satellite imagery as she was built had showed a near-pure merchant hull. And you could not pick how thick the scantlings were from a satellite image. They had finally gone for a very attractively priced offer of two big medium speed diesels and slightly higher speed at 26 knots, but even that was not too unusual in a merchant design.

‘Mr Kim, the yard has done an excellent job on these two ships. My project team here has been most satisfied with the build quality and unusual fittings the sealift ships require.’

Mr Kim nodded, and replied in his flawless American-accented English. ‘We appreciate the assessment. We also have an interest, as the design has attracted considerable attention from other of our Allies. It is an unusual approach you have taken, to apply commercial philosophies in this manner.’

‘Well, Mr Kim, we do need the logistics capability, and we do operate in a part of the world sadly bereft of modern infrastructure. These ships can operate as a floating base in such areas, or as a sealifter for amphibious operations.’

Mr Kim never smiled, but his voice held one. ‘Does not the arrester system give too much away?’

Grazebrook shrugged. ‘People may read in what they want. It is useful for COD and medevac with the Grumman Traders in some contingencies, especially when we have an Army field hospital aboard. Thirty-six million and an 18 man crew module is hardly a high price to pay for that, the cost of recruiting and training a normal infantryman is half a million dollars alone. And it is not as if the ship has the capability to operate any high performance military aircraft.’

He snorted. ‘We have hardly designed a miraculously cheap supercarrier, after all. And she might have the fuel for such a ship, but she has nothing else. One hardly retains two medium-sized holds with moveable decks for vehicles and for cargo containers in an aircraft carrier.’

‘This is so,’ said Mr Kim, ‘or the hangar deck overhead gantry crane, or the four doors for the gunport gantry cranes.’

‘One has to be able to offload vehicles and containers on to a pier or a mexeflote, Mr Kim. Which should also tell people about the class. Well, that and their status as RAN Fleet Auxiliary ships with a Merchant Fleet Auxiliary crew.’

He cast an eye at Mr Kim. ‘We were fortunate in that you had the building slots available. Your adjustments there were very much appreciated.’

‘Our order book was not full, and one of the reasons we have the very high turnover rate of 10 is a that we use the SHI’s scientific and fundamental approach to building, such as making large-sized ship blocks, shortening the main engine loading period and efficiently utilising facility space by using ultra large-sized cranes.. Another reason is that we seek out new technical challenges to improve our advanced shipbuilding systems like the intelligent robot systems. We are quite proud of our spider automatic welding robot for LNG cargo tanks, the wall-climbing, vacuum-blasting robot, and the inspection and cleaning pipe robot. Using these robot systems, we record a 68% of production automation rate. The technical challenge here was the unusual thickness and strength of some of the scantlings. Now we have a robotic welding system which can perfectly weld 50mm and 75mm very high-strength ductile steels.’ He added a point. ‘Of course, such steels are almost in the class of armour, which is also unusual.’

Grazebrook chuckled slightly. ‘Oh, true, Mr Kim, but almost is not actual. And in fact they are armour of a sort. With so much weight having to be added high in the ship, and with the ship being a naval auxiliary anyway, why not? Using the more expensive steel cost less than a single close-defence gun system, and it also means we can accept the same sort of deck loadings as a steel products carrier, which helps to future-proof the design.’ He shrugged, ‘Abrams tanks are heavy enough, what will the future hold?’

‘That is true, Captain. So you will be staying here until she is completed to delivery specification?’

‘Yes, Mr Kim, I was asked to command this one, she will be called ‘Australian Defence Vessel Vengeance’ and I will have the full 26 man crew here within a month.’

‘Interesting, Captain. The other is Nelson, I believe?’

‘Yes, after a wooden battleship of the Colonial navy of Victoria.’

Grazebrook looked at him briefly. ‘Yes, Mr Kim, we will have a naval module, a reserve officer from the Maritime Trade Operations branch, and three communications sailors. But they will arrive two weeks before we sail.’

‘Our own Navy is examining this concept, including modular crews, with considerable interest. We have no tradition of operating auxiliaries with civilian crews, however.’

‘Neither do we, Mr Kim. However, the Royal Navy, from which we grew a century past, does. Thus we may import it with little cultural problem, even though it demands great cultural change.’

Mr Kim nodded, just once. ‘We see this, but do not quite understand it. These two ships are an aircraft carrier, yes?’

‘They can be, Mr Kim, at the cost of their logistics functions. They can be a very primitive aircraft carrier, they would be about as capable as the US Lexington class of the 1930s, large, inefficient and unable to operate any fixed wing aircraft designed after 1960. They cannot operate jet aircraft at all as they have no steam catapults and no ability to install them, after all they have no boiler to generate the steam. But helicopters? Yes. That is why they have 23 deck spots for them.’

‘Yet, Captain, their arrester systems have attracted much attention,’ said Mr Kim softly.

‘We have them on air bases as an emergency system, it was thought worthwhile to install them on these ships as well, and for the same reasons. The 55mm thick flight deck and extremely strong framing mean that any naval aircraft can land on it. So why not? If, during their lives, one single modern aircraft is saved by having that emergency capability, it will pay for it. They also have the capability to operate S-2T Trackers, and a fully loaded C-1T Trader can land operate as well.’ He shrugged. ‘That is only sensible, Mr Kim. If the ship has a field hospital aboard, casualty evacuation is essential. If the ship is carrying Army equipment in a convoy, being able to operate anti-submarine aircraft in small numbers is also sensible. These ships will serve us for 30 or 40 years, who can tell what the future holds? We have been at war for six years now, and matters in Europe are looking dangerous. They remain too primitive to be aircraft carriers, and that cannot be changed.’ He shrugged again. ‘Even to operate Trackers, the firefighting systems are inadequate. That is why the small hangar in the island and the facility there for supporting large Oshkosh fire trucks, which would be necessary if such were to be done. We have taken a different philosophy with these ships, buying both flexibility and low cost by exploiting sheer size and volume. All of that being said, they remain exactly what they are, a very large logistics auxiliary.’

He smiled and gestured. ‘The proof is in the hangar deck to light deck hydraulic ramp, in the two vehicle loading ramps on each side and the two Mexiflote extendible gantry cranes behind the gunport doors on each beam, in the mooring booms. The internal holds for 500 containers, and the internal overhead gantry crane, all these speak the same story. Logistics transport, just very large ones, and with some interesting secondary capabilities.’

Mr Kim smiled. ‘And we have an arrangement should other nations buy them too.’

‘I hope they do, Mr Kim. For their purpose and within their limitations, these are magnificent ships, and I have been deeply impressed with the build quality

oOo

Good one

We want the detailed drawings of the 'not a carrier logistics ship'

I d have something for your post a while back on alternate Australian 'phibs.

WW Tamesis class 4th Generation RoRo.

Working exclusively from open source material shows that a twin-screw 'militarised' version of this ship with a starboard side island and a flight deck with a ski-jump, 20m x 30m steel flat products lift (takes 800 tons or a fully spread Chinook), 6 fixed decks with the one below the upper deck given 30' clearance so to act as a hangar and a slewing dipping stern ramp (300 ton ramp load) would have internal volume for 2500 troops, 40 days of sustainment, 32 helicopters (in the hangar deck) with all their maintenance needs, firefighting gear, 50 Abrams and their support vehicles, 100 M113, 100 ASLAV, 400-750 softskins, a field hospital with all its components, and 4 x LCU carried internally and launched thru gunport door gantry cranes plus 14,000+ cubic metres of fuel for the helos etc using just her existing double bottom volume for ballast water.

That load, BTW, would leave one of your six decks quite empty! Cost roughly AUD350M in 2006 dollars, delivery in 15-18 months if ordered at Daewoo today.


Depends what hits it, and what you do in terms of passive defence. Twin screw, with unitised (and unmanned ) engines, full double bottoms and extensive compartmentation, plus constructed of ductile steel... she's already as resilient to underwater damage as an LHD. Such a ship is bigger, which also helps.

Most ships die by fire. A 4th Gen RoRo has a good array of 'fixed' defences, halon and CO2 drench, for example. Without a large crew, she'd be much more vulnerable to fire. The obvious answer is to have a 'modular crew' concept as used by the Oil industry and merchant industry in some of their applications. Embark the crew when you need them for a specific mission.

But the sheer cargo carrying capability of these ships also offers some interesting possibilities. It is perfectly possible to place rows of water or sand-filled containers against the hull sides on all decks and use only a small % of the cargo capacity. Modular containerised pumping, power generation and fire fighting systems (as per the oil industry) can be used. None of this sort of option is available on LHD, and to my knowledge comparative effectiveness studies have not been done.



And the Korean yard that built the class for WW could deliver the type 12 months after the order was placed for AUD 300 million in 2001 dollars.

The TLW variant would be triple hulled to the 2nd deck above the FL waterline and double hulled above that. That's deliberate, the void spaces can be filled with water or sand at the 'sea skimmer deck levels', which essentially makes her armoured.

Makes sure she has a good commercial dynamic ship positioning system.

The combat systems would be fully modularised and work from an open-architecture data spine in armoured trunkings. This decouples crew from ship. The ship itself has a 17 man crew (all she needs). If she's needed just for transport of vehicles and stores, that's all she needs complete, except for 4 personnel to do continual vehicle inspections 24/7. EVERYTHING is in containers. Want a helo detachment? The basic building block is 2-3 helicopters with about 40 personnel. That's 2 40' accommodation containers, an ablutions container, an 'office' container and 2 stores containers, maybe a workshop container, and a galley/cold store container.

You plumb everything to the overheads, and power, water and bandwidth is all plug-in.

You cannot make the ship flat decked, as she must retain the stern slewing ramp, but that critter you beef up to handle 500 tons of load, and you make it so you can dip it into the water. The tanks then have no problem with driving aboard the landing craft, as they simply mate to it. She can also use any wharf to self load and unload.

Want a decent combat suite? Take the ANZAC modularised combat suite and container mount it. The VLS won't fit in a standard container, but it will in a module box and it has to go on the upper deck anyway. This is why armoured cable trunking are important and have to be built in to the design. The armouring is easy, you use 42" LNG pipeline.

Want a shipboard firefighting capability for the flight deck? Take 3 RAAF Oshkosh fire tenders and put them aboard with their crews, one is on duty on the upper deck at all times and uses the ramps, not the lifts, to get there.

Want a heavy fire support ship? Take a regiment of 155mm towed (or 105mm) and place them aboard. Park the 155's on the flight deck and tie them down.

Want a hospital ship? Drive the Army field hospital aboard in their vehicles. Want extra intensive care with that? Put the RAAF AME high-dependency facilities aboard.

I have been over Tamesis, and she's a remarkable ship. Equally remarkable is just what you can do with essentially unlimited volume when you make power, chilled water, compressed air and bandwidth essentially unlimited inside the ship.

This decouples the costs as well, the ship's easy, simple and cheap. The rest is defined by function, and every function comes with a cost in modules. This makes maximum use (if a bit wastefully) of the ship's internal volume, but so what? Steel is cheap and air is free, and this design quite literally has more volume than can be used!

She'd also be ice rated, with quite thick scantlings at the WL.

You are going to get some weird issues, like 'The ship's CO is a LCDR, but the CAG is a CMDR and the senior PWO is a CAPT.' Strangely enough, there are traditions which can deal with a lot of these.

drmarkbailey wrote: ↑Thu Oct 24, 2024 7:57 am ‘That is an option which will bear very careful examination. I have to admit,’ said Peek ‘that I never did think that I’d see the Tracers returned to flight. If I may ask, why them and not a newer aircraft?’

‘Time, commonality and money, basically. The task we want them for would be over-serviced with a Hawkeye, and none are available from here anyway. New ones are far too much capability for the operational role we want, broad area ocean surveillance.

Hmm, are we talking about no E-2 air frames in Australia already? Or are we talking about a belief that there are none available anywhere?

IIRC (and that's unlikely as my memory leaks like a sieve ) this was discussed years ago, and in TLW-verse there were no E-2 available at all, hence the Tracers, Also, they'd be yet another airframe type.

As I've mentioned, a lot of the stuff I'm finding is unfinished, not fully edited or partial.

So all comments are great. If people want to do some editing or additions, all the better.

Cheers: mark

drmarkbailey wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 11:09 pm IIRC (and that's unlikely as my memory leaks like a sieve ) this was discussed years ago, and in TLW-verse there were no E-2 available at all, hence the Tracers, Also, they'd be yet another airframe type.

With the 1989 Story POD and an aircraft that was in production and stayed in production even in @ . . . things become possible with a continued Cold War and steady production rates to support Cold War force structures.
Which was a complicated way of saying there are ample E-2B and early E-2C air frames out there. The USN never bothered to upgrade the early "C" models because it would have involved a SLEP and cost nearly as much as a brand new E-2C. But if you're only flying from land bases, well that's a different matter.
FYI, Taiwan's initial E-2s were former "B" models pulled from AMARC and updated

Hmmm.... Hmmm....

So if we have a fleet of

S-2T (100+)
C-1T (6) used as conversion trainers routinely, and also to support S-2T flights at regional airports, those flights also being training missions
E-1T (11)

Doing a comparison of E-2 to E-1 I can't see any real advantage to having a mixed fleet of S-2T, C-1T and E-2. This appears so because there a lot of commonality in the Tracker airframes and that makes the rebuild process more do-able in industrial terms.

The Tracer has the same endurance as the Hawkeye, but is much slower even with a turboprop conversion.

Can anyone see advantages to re-worked E-2B that overmatch the re-worked E-1T? Both can take AN/APS-145 (the AN/APS-20 is entirely obsolete). It will probably need a new variant. The 145 takes the range to 300nm+ (the old 20 was only 200nm).

The mission is coastal patrol out to a day's steaming (300nm) which gives a swath 600nm wide, covering 2 days steaming. Each aircraft can, in one sortie, cover a 1000nm mission at 300nm out, giving an approx 1000nm x 600nm swath. 7 sorties per day will cover the entire continent. 11 aircraft will support those 7 daily sorties.

The RAAF has Wedgetail, and certainly does not need E-2.

All of that said, the Kiwis could be involved with this capability. If there's spare E-2 airframes available, then the RNZAF getting 4 to 6 would be a very good idea - but can they actually afford it? (I do not know the answer to that.)

Cheers: Mark

drmarkbailey wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:58 am - but can they actually afford it? (I do not know the answer to that.)

Governments can always afford things if they want to.

Then that's a very good option for NZ. The E-2 is better suited to a MARCOP role in NZ waters than is an E-1 as it's faster on transit. I'd suggest as a mod that the engines be upgraded with an eye to best possible fuel efficiency, and that (if possible) underwing tankage be added to further extend range.

It's not like the bird will be operating from anything but land bases.

If it had radar commonality with the RANFAA & RAAF E-1 force that would ease training and ILS issues as well.

Cheers: mark

Would it be possible to pull a lot of the carrier related stuff without imacting on stuff like CoG? As an aside, the RAF did study an E-2K, but IIRC, it was decided it would be a pain in the arse. It would have put an additional burden on the tanker force and due to speed differential, would have needed to do reverse tanking with Victors!

However, an E-2C(NZ) would probably avoid those sorts of issues. The RNZAF are not going to be doing AAR with any Hawkeyes. The E-2K would have deleted the wing-fold and had a 'wet-wing', but I'd argue that the Kiwi aircraft should have minimal mods to keep costs down. Would made some sense, IMVHO, to assign them to No. 5 Squadron, alongside the P-3K fleet.

So our story POD is late 1989, but Australia and Southeast Asia largely carry on as in @ until 1998/1999*.

*As a side note, I think the one area of difference will be that with the continued Cold War, Vietnam is going to have a more modernized force, with that meaning Thailand is likely to get cleared for certain things from the US.

RE: Wedgetail
About that.
So if I'm seeing this right, in @ the timeline looked like this:
1994 - Project AIR 5077 starts
1996 - RFP issued
1999 - Boeing awarded contract
2006 - Boeing announces 18 month delay
November 2009 - first two aircraft delivered

So what, if any, driver is there to shift the timeline to the left in TLWverse?
And even if we shift it left, we're using a healthy dose of handwavium to have Wedgetail in service and functional by early 2005.

I take the point about fleet commonality, but, at least around 1998-99, you might be able to get Group 0 E-2Cs direct from USN stocks, and upgrade the APS-138 to at least APS-139. And when you have an urgent requirement, off the shelf direct from allied stocks has value.

I do wonder if even refurbished E-1s can handle the cooling requirements for APS-145 and associated computer systems.
I mean with the E-1s, what are they really for? SLCM warning?

Now if you're looking for persistence, you can put the E-2 mission systems on a P-3. Just saying.

Bernard, I have some John Lacey profiles that will absolutely make your day: RAN S-2T TurboTrackers, and he did an RAN E-1T TurboTracer lo, many years ago…

James1978 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 9:49 pm So our story POD is late 1989, but Australia and Southeast Asia largely carry on as in @ until 1998/1999*.

*As a side note, I think the one area of difference will be that with the continued Cold War, Vietnam is going to have a more modernized force, with that meaning Thailand is likely to get cleared for certain things from the US.

RE: Wedgetail
About that.
So if I'm seeing this right, in @ the timeline looked like this:
1994 - Project AIR 5077 starts
1996 - RFP issued
1999 - Boeing awarded contract
2006 - Boeing announces 18 month delay
November 2009 - first two aircraft delivered

So what, if any, driver is there to shift the timeline to the left in TLWverse?
And even if we shift it left, we're using a healthy dose of handwavium to have Wedgetail in service and functional by early 2005.

I take the point about fleet commonality, but, at least around 1998-99, you might be able to get Group 0 E-2Cs direct from USN stocks, and upgrade the APS-138 to at least APS-139. And when you have an urgent requirement, off the shelf direct from allied stocks has value.

I do wonder if even refurbished E-1s can handle the cooling requirements for APS-145 and associated computer systems.
I mean with the E-1s, what are they really for? SLCM warning?

Now if you're looking for persistence, you can put the E-2 mission systems on a P-3. Just saying.

The RAAF had been agitating for AEW&C since the mid 1980s and AIR5077 was very slow to get going as that was smack in the middle of the 'cold war dividend' period. The period in OTL where all this occurred was the time of the hollow force due to political demands for a 'cold war peace dividend' even though we are NOT spending much at all compared to NATO etc. And we had persistent funding problems because of that.

I can see this happening quite easily in a time of growing strategic tension and direct threat to Australia.


1992 - Project AIR 5077 starts
1994 - RFP issued
1996 - Boeing awarded contract
1998 - worsening strategic circumstances place AIR5077 at the top of RAAF strategic priorities and close to the top of AUSGOV strategic priority projects
1999 - Indonesia turns towards the USSR and AUSGOV starts to panic, Boeing told to accelerate project insofar as possible
2002 - prototype flying
2004 - first two aircraft delivered

Now, will this be as capable as the OTL E-7, yes: because Boeing and the rest of the US industrial and R&D base have most certainly not had the very adverse impacts of 'the post cold war peace dividend'.


The E-1 should have no issue with cooling arrangements for more austere version of APS-145. And it will be a more austere version. The machine is being acquired not for AEW&C but for maritime and air COP (common operating picture) surveillance.

Basically, it both finds TOI and refines TOI data from other systems. In addition (and I'd get it for this alone), it's the world's best sanitisation tool. Let's say I have information on XYZ activity (could be military, could be criminal) from a very sensitive or very classified source.

I ostentatiously fly one of these things in the vicinity (or even say I did) and hey presto, I can 'sanitise' that very delicate info down to a much lower level, 'because the Tracer saw something funny'. And now I can action it operationally without risking the source.

Ever REALLY wonder why the USCG got P-3's with a Hawkeye radar fit...... I'm certain that sanitisation was a big part of that decision.

This is EXACTLY what the Brits did out of Malta in 42-44, used Wellington MPA and Maryland recce birds to sanitise ULTRA.

Cheers: Mark

Cheers: Mark

Yeah, I have to edit this some more. I'll get to it when I can. The table, for example, collapsed.

TLW

Australia in TLW 1998-2005

“The Spine”: The AF-4I and the Australian Industrial Development Program

Industrial Development. Increasing Australian aviation industry became a national priority in 1998 when the ‘Second Confrontation’ with Indonesia commenced and became a national imperative by 2000.

Background. What became known as “The Spine” revolved around Boeing Australia and what had been the Government Aircraft Factories (GAF) when owned by the Government of Australia. The primary factory was located at Fisherman’s Bend, a suburb of Melbourne in the state of Victoria. It had its origins in the lead-up to World War II, during which it was known as the Department of Aircraft Production (DAP). In 1987, GAF was reorganised and renamed as Aerospace Technologies of Australia (ASTA) then privatised. ASTA was purchased by Rockwell International. In turn it was purchased by Boeing a few years later. ASTA formed the nucleus of Boeing Australia. This was serendipitous, as Boeing purchased McDonnell-Douglas in the 1990s, and Boeing-McDonnel Douglas assets formed the bulk of the RAAF fleet.

Timeline.

Australia had been in a ‘time of deep peace’ throughout most of the Cold War, insulated from most Cold War influences by distance. This meant that defence funds were limited and Boeing Australia was a business hungry for orders and in reality ‘ticking over’.

1998 – Konfrontasi II. This commenced as the situation in East Timor worsened, some of the Indonesian Generals controlling elements of the Indonesian economy (including East Timor) started to turn to the USSR for assistance and influence.

East Timor. Independence for East Timor, or even limited regional autonomy, was not allowable under President Suharto's New Order. Notwithstanding Indonesian public opinion in the 1990s occasionally showing grudging appreciation of the Timorese position, it was widely feared that an independent East Timor would destabilise Indonesian unity and start to unravel the country. Renewed United Nations-brokered mediation efforts between Indonesia and Portugal began in early 1997. The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, however, caused tremendous upheaval in Indonesia and led to President Suharto's resignation in May 1998, ending his thirty-year presidency. General Prabowo, by then in command of the powerful Indonesian Strategic Reserve, went into exile in Jordan and military operations in East Timor were costing the finically stressed Indonesian government a million US dollars a day.

The subsequent "reformasi" period of relative political openness and transition, included unprecedented debate about Indonesia's relationship with East Timor. For the remainder of 1998, discussion forums took place throughout Dili working towards a referendum. Indonesian Foreign Minister Alatas described plans for phased autonomy leading to possible independence as "all pain, no gain" for Indonesia. On 8 June 1998, three weeks after taking office, President Habibie, as Suharto's successor, announced that Indonesia would soon offer East Timor a special plan for autonomy.

In late 1998, the Australian Government of PM John Howard drafted a letter to Indonesia advising of a change in Australian policy, and advocating a referendum on independence within a decade. President Habibie saw such an arrangement as implying "colonial rule" by Indonesia and he decided to call a snap referendum on the issue. This resulted in a vote for independence.

1999 – East Timor Crisis. The Indonesian intent to support a referendum for independence resulted in a UN-authorised, Australian led and US supported operation to support the development of the new nation. There was little doubt which way the vote would go. Australian Prime Minister Howard had a quiet plan which involved facing down the Indonesian military’s hotter heads (with US assistance, the very reason two USN SSN and a small task unit were present) the principle would be established in Indonesia of civilian primacy of control over the military. It would also remove a point of longstanding friction between Australia and Indonesia.

The plan worked perfectly for all concerned – until the USSR’s own plan was activated.

Voting and War. As groups supporting autonomy and independence began campaigning, a series of pro-integration paramilitary groups of East Timorese began committing violence around the country. Alleging pro-independence bias on the part of UNAMET, the groups were seen working with and receiving training from Indonesian soldiers and Soviet advisors. Before the May agreement was announced, an April paramilitary attack in Liquiça left scores of East Timorese dead.

On 16 May 1999, a militia company accompanied by Indonesian troops attacked independence activists in the village of Atara; in June another group attacked a UNAMET office in Maliana, killing dozens. Indonesian authorities claimed to be helpless to stop what it claimed was violence between rival East Timorese factions, but Ramos-Horta joined many others in scoffing at such notions.

In fact the Indonesian Government thought it was in control – but it was entirely wrong. The military faction running the interventions from West Timor were actually suborned by the USSR. Jakarta only thought it was running the show, in fact Moscow Centre was.

In February 1999 Ramos-Horta said: "Before [Indonesia] withdraws it wants to wreak major havoc and destabilisation, as it has always promised. We have consistently heard that over the years from the Indonesian military in Timor." He was right in more ways than he knew, as an element of the Indonesian military did intend this – but they were perhaps-unwitting tools of Moscow Centre.

Inside Indonesia there was a power struggle getting underway.

As militia leaders warned of a "slaughter", the Indonesian "roving ambassador" declared: "If people reject autonomy there is the possibility blood will flow in East Timor." One paramilitary leader announced that a "sea of fire" would result in the event of a vote for independence. As the date of the vote drew near, anti-independence violence became endemic. The day of the vote, 30 August 1999, was generally calm and orderly. 98.6 per cent of registered voters cast ballots, and on 4 September UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced that 78.5 per cent of the votes had been cast for independence. Brought up on the New Order’s insistence that the East Timorese supported integration, Indonesians were either shocked or incredulous that the East Timorese had voted against being part of Indonesia. Many accepted media stories blaming the supervising United Nations and Australia who had pressured Habibie for a resolution. Again, the USSR was behind a lot of this reporting.

Indonesian Internal Fracture. Unfortunately, the enemy gets a vote and the USSR was very good at creative covert interventions. Australian Prime Minister Howard’s plan actually succeeded for a short time, and then the Generals activated their plans in concert with covert Soviet assistance. In a ‘very soft coup’ probably on 25 September 1999, they regained the balance of influence in Government, declared that Australia had ‘stolen’ East Timor. Rapid alignment with the USSR followed, with a loan and first deliveries of weapons following immediately.

This volte-face surprised the world and it began to dawn on regional governments what was really happening. ASEAN was appalled.

12 November 1999 – Konfrontasi II Opens. Fighting in East Timor surged, with Cuban ‘advisors’ entering the new country with militia groups, now very well trained and equipped. On 19 October 1999 Indonesian probes of Australian airspace began, but the ‘official’ start of Konfrontasi II was 11 November 1999 at 1100 local time, when four TNI-AU F-5 escorted a two-A-4 airstrike on Bacau. Three RAAF F-18A had conducted a ‘psyops and presence’ mission, flying from Darwin, overflying Dili and parts of East Timor in a show of support, and landing at Bacau. There they were inspected by various dignitaries. The fighters had only self-defence AAM, but the message was obvious. They were planned to fly back next day. Just before dawn the Indonesian strike appeared (there was no warning or defences) and destroyed all three aircraft, killing 19 RAAF personnel preparing them for flight. Canberra was informed by what became known as ‘The Junta’ (in reality an unstable array of competing political forces) that the presence of long ranged modern combat aircraft in East Timor would not be tolerated.

This resulted in pandemonium in Canberra, as it coincided with a NATO report from Polish sources confirming the sale of two squadrons of Su-27 and the training of Indonesian pilots in Poland. The pandemonium was worsened when a flight of Tu-22M paid a visit to Indonesia to exercise with the Indonesian military. The instantaneous collapse of the regional strategic assumptions sparked a Defence Strategic Review (DSR). As one cynical historian said at the time “yeah, so much for the Ten-Year Rule. Again!”

RAAF Capability in 2000.

The DSR was delivered in March 2000. The central point of DSR2000 was that over the next four years (at the longest) every city in southern Australia would be within the range of ‘Soviet systems’. Therefore, national capabilities for dispersed C2, base resilience, a national air defence system, and other military capabilities had become both essential and urgent. This was a very difficult problem for a medium power sunk deeply into complacency by its remoteness. Missile defences (based on Patriot) required the equivalent of six US Army-scale battalions to cover the critical areas of the continent. The cost was unaffordable, mostly the 5000 personnel required. None of the systems could be manufactured in Australia, and due to US and Allied demand for Patriot, delivery would be very extended. While one lighter-scale ‘Regiment’ was acquired to cover the critical Darwin-Katherine region, even this was long delayed by higher Allied priorities.

Defence Chiefs were surprised when informed via experimentation and wargaming that the best immediate answer was infrastructure hardening for the force in being. Letting the bulldozers and concreters loose was effective, but it was not sexy and provided no good media video.

If that surprised them the politicians were stunned by the alternative which experimentation showed. It was faster, cheaper, and much more politically viable: it was a proposal to re-establish the lost Australian capability to manufacture ‘good enough’ military aircraft locally.

The fact that the ‘good enough’ aircraft was not a defensive fighter at all but a mostly modern medium bomber was withheld from the public: what was touted was the creation of an ‘economic and fast’ solution. This was the remanufacture of a significant number of ex-US F-4 fighters, leveraging off the skills base established by the existing F-18 centrebarrel refurbishment program to develop manufacturing skills, and after that to proceed with license manufacture of an as-yet undefined aircraft widely assumed at the time to be an F-18 variant of some kind. This culminated in the AF-4I being approved in 2001 as a mechanism to develop an Australian aircraft production capability.

So the decision for an industrial development program which produced a useful but second-line combat aircraft. What the ‘industrial development type’ actually was depended not on its intrinsic value but on the public’s perception of it and support for it.

So ‘an interceptor to protect the cities’ it was. The project became known as ‘The Spine’.

Engines. In fact it all revolved around two factors, the aircraft engines and the lowest possible risk. That decision was made early, well before the airframe was selected. The engine had to be the F414 and it had to be entirely built locally. F414 was already in production for the new F-18 types and it had major parts commonality with F404 from which it had been developed. It was known and mature, Australia was buying it anyway in the recently-signed contract for 24 F-18 ‘Super Hornets’. Australia also made components for it.

The F414 was smaller and lighter (154 in (391 cm) long/ 35 in (89 cm) diameter and 2,445 lb (1,110 kg) max weight) than the F-4’s J-79 (Length: 208.69 in (5.301 m), diameter: 39.06 in (0.992 m), dry weight: 3,835 lb (1,740 kg)) while providing much more thrust (13,000 lbf (57.8 kN) 22,000 lbf (97.9 kN) with afterburner: vice 11,870 lbf (52.8 kN) dry; 17,900 lbf (80 kN) with afterburner on J-79. Building F414 saved a lot of weight and it had lower fuel consumption. It also avoided the supremely expensive blunder of the British F-4K program, where they chose to put the Rolls Royce Spey into F-4, an engine physically larger than J-79.

The decision to utilise the latest F-18 systems also set the radar to AN/APG-79. This also made the ‘Hornet path’ for the RAAF absolutely assured: or so it was thought at the time before ‘the fuckup fairy paid a visit’, as one wag later put it.

Requirement for AF-4I. The requirement was for six Squadrons of interceptors, based to cover Darwin-Katherine and the bases at Scherger and Curtin as first priority, with three more covering the critical south-east corner with bases at Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide. An OCU was also required. This was measured at 20 airframes per Squadron-equivalent (12 operational, 6 cycling in maintenance and 2 attrition spares) for 140 airframes This was enough to re-establish a native capability at the Boeing Australia’s Fisherman’s Bend plant and Avalon. And Boeing already ‘owned’ the F-4. The US government had no issues whatsoever releasing as many F-4E from storage as Australia wanted, and an initial 20 existing F-4E was hot-transferred within a couple of months so basic flight training could commence.

2000: Collapse of the Strategic Environment

Late in 2000 Australia became aware of Indo-Soviet plans to develop a powerful, modern, very long ranged Indonesian airpower projection capability based on “Flankers and tankers.” This destroyed the assumptions on which Australian strategic planning was based and made the RAAF F-18A/B fighter force obsolescent. It recreated the Australian strategic nightmare of 1942 and generated extremely strong Australian reactions.

Reactions

When this strategic reality emerged it again generated a knee jerk reaction. When the USA unexpectedly offered F-22A Canberra immediately accepted. This was a ‘good kneejerk reaction’.

The real problems ran deeper, and were much worse. F-22 and the AF-4I bought time but not many years of it. The F-18A/B force would serve for a time (and covered ground attack) but was now a dead end as the US informed Australia that no more Super Hornets would be available.

Flanker had already made the elderly and expensively upgraded F-111 obsolete as a medium bomber, and generated the very expensive MBX program. This was the (then ‘black’) program for which the country was actually rebuilding its ability to manufacture combat aircraft.

The AF-4I was an updated version of the Israeli-style ‘Kurnass 2000’ program especially in risk management terms and these same risk reduction concepts were applied throughout, when rebuilding the Australian industry. The USA was highly supportive, because AF-4I and MBX posed little to no export threat and above all else added a massive aircraft maintenance and repair capability to the Theatre as well as additional manufacturing capability for specific systems including F414 and APS-79 radars. This is why the USN was very pleased indeed when Boeing Australia won a contract to do centre barrel repair and refurbishment work on 40 USN F-18 in 2000. These machines were brought forward in the repair cycle as US capability was at maximum load.

The Hi-Lo Mix. Early formalisation of the ‘lower-medium power Hi-Lo mix’ in 2001-2002 was a natural reaction to strategic reality. That this was a rational response in the strategic environment was absolutely not understood by European NATO powers. They simply could not understand why the Australians preferred to ‘rebuild and remanufacture obsolete fighters’ instead of ‘assembling modern European ones with a 30% Australian industrial offset’. They did not understand the theatre, the threat or the Australian intent. But the Americans – specifically PACOM – did.

The Industry Capability Development Plan (“The Spine”) and MBX

The main driver of this nationally vital industrial development was the understanding that Australia had no strategic choice but to once again develop the industrial capability to supply its own absolutely essential aircraft production capability. This was a genuine medium bomber, a maritime strike bomber to replace F-111. How difficult this was had been illustrated before and unlike 1935 there was no collegial Imperial industry to assist. So going ‘greenfield to high-tech bomber’ was not an option as it had been in 1935. In any case, Australia actually had a far deeper economy including a significant aviation industry, manufacturing advanced components for commercial and military aircraft, mostly developed via offset programs. But only 15% of the Australian economy was manufacturing. Australian industry was perfectly capable of assembling any military aircraft and providing significant local input, but this capability had never been retained through a national industrial development plan, let alone built upon. It was trapped in boom-bust cycles.

The RAAF discussed this issue with industry and they pointed out the need for a constant workflow on which a true industrial capability could be built, as this was required before MBX could enter production. The true need for this lay in risk and cost reduction. The plan was to expand the current major aircraft repair program (F/A-18A/B centrebarrel replacement) into the AF-4I program, which included engine and radar manufacture.

The events of 1999-2000 gave the Australian government and RAAF enormous problems (not the least budgetary problems). The 1930s-equivalent re-armament meant speed mattered over cost and this naturally led to the multiplication of types just as it had in 1938-39. By 2000 the RAAF was looking at, two or three F-18 variants with two different engines, F-111 of two types, with two different engines, a ‘silver bullet’ air superiority fighter which became F-22A, a ‘mass force’ standard defensive fighter based on rebuilt F-4 with F414 engines (which were at least the same as those in part of the Hornet fleet) manufactured locally under license, some old Mirage and Hunter, two different types of Hawk. The logistics implications of this were bad.

The decision taken was the only one that could be on such tight timeframes, derive the new force structure on the aircraft major systems. As the most numerous type then in service was F-18 variants, and more were already being planned, this meant F-18 systems, radars and engines or close derivatives of them for everything possible, with as much as possible made locally. These were modern enough so that machines uprated with them would be competitive in South East Asia for decades.

The airframe which most suited for an emergency response interceptor was the F-4. It was available in large numbers at low initial cost, many were low hours, the type had a proven record of design flexibility, proven record of low-risk major update (proven by the IDF Kurnas 2000 program) with excellent outcomes, twin engines and good performance. Best of all, it was originally designed and built modularly. So there was deep commonality across the global F-4 airframe pool. All of this reduced project risk, which was the one completely essential criteria.

Research had showed that the airframe core was common across most F-4 variants. The forward fuselage had originally been designed in both one and two seat configurations, as modules on a common fuselage midbody. The tail and wings were also defacto modules. This meant that aircraft were not rebuilt in the usual sense, but reduced to major airframe components. These were then returned to zero-use configuration and aircraft construction commenced from certification of airframe midbody zero-use status.

This also bought low-risk and flexibility. Had the Australian Government wanted, variants specialised in interception, ground attack and reconnaissance could be developed using one airframe, engine and radar fit. Australian industry used the refurbishment work, as the stepping stone to aircraft manufacture. Essentially, no other airframe met the low risk, high availability, high numbers, low cost, high resultant capability at ‘lower medium power tier’ matrix. No other process met the first industrial phase of rebuilding the national capability to produce Australia’s own combat aircraft.

Australian industry could already build major military airframe components (F-18A centrebarrels, airliner and combat aircraft wings, rotor blades, ailerons, and small civilian aircraft complete) but lacked the complex systems design and integration skills needed – the AF-4I project provided these and created the widespread network of subcontractors and specialist small firms the MBX project needed.

In a very logical flow, the AF-4I program was the philosophical and industrial key that enabled all other programs. The AF-4I was a perfectly adequate long-duration interceptor, well suited to its role of continental defence.

The program became known colloquially as “The Spine” when established in 2001. It very rapidly began to bear unexpected fruit, as it encouraged offshoot programs such as the Wirraway II (GA Airvan) mass production, S-2T and Turbo-Dakota programs, Sea Cobra refurbishment and then construction program, and others.

The AF-4I Greyfalcon

Officially the Home Defence Fighter Program (HDFP): This project was openly and unabashedly an industrial development program first and foremost. To assure public support it was squarely aimed at quickly providing a fast, relatively inexpensive deterrent to the new threat to the nation’s once-invulnerable industrial/population centres.

The AF-4I was named Grey Falcon after a desert raptor found across Australia’s vast interior. It is a small falcon, difficult to see, a very fast and a lethally effective ambush hunter.

The final decision was made in March 2001, decisions on engines and radars had already been made. Greyfalcon was a single purpose single seat interceptor fighter with an empty weight two tons lighter than F-4E. It had no ground attack capability. The initial number ordered (100) allowed for the development of a full production line. The first 22 F-4E for upgrade arrived in June-July 2001. Of these, 12 were allocated for initial survey and processing. In this way the requirements for airframe restoration subcontacting industrial capabilities could be developed with real data. The remaining 10 F-4E were sent to ARDU in South Australia where the OCU was starting to form. They were used for testing and as pilot trainers from November 2001. Ironically, they were never converted and were the first HDFP fighters to be used operationally – as F-4E.

The timeline for the AF-4I Greyfalcon was as follows.

Year Event Numbers
1999 Government decision to redevelop an aircraft manufacturing industry taken by Government.

Sqn for Darwin, Scherger and Curtin plus OCU approved. 4 F-18A acquired to replace loss of 3 F-18A at Bacau.

Delivered during year:
4 F-18A
2000 Plan developed, first decisions are to base aircraft on in-service F-18 systems, engines and radars.
F-4 selected as airframe for HDFP.
At end of year, three more Sqn approved for Townsville, Sydney, Canberra and Adelaide Initial plan is for 3 Sqn plus an OCU, 80 airframes. Approach made to US for 80 airframes in June.
2001 AF-4I design commenced. 22 F-4E arrive in country, 12 sent to program, 10 to ARDU as developmental aircraft and trainers
Delivered during year:
22 F-4
2002 AF-4I prototype conversions and testing commenced. Design firming.

Boeing Australia wins contract to overhaul 40 USN F-18A. During the year, a steady stream of acft arrived. Total order increased to 90 airframes.

Delivered during year:
64 F-4 (86)
2003 The Uptick, RAAF F-18 force severely mauled, F-111 force damaged.
Additional 3 HDFP Sqn approved (60 airframes) as well as a wartime attrition pool of 60, for a total of 120+90=210 airframes.
Emergency backup plan for a AB-4A (two seat bomber version of F-4) approved.

AF-4I design finalised
Australian Government panic over strategic situation.

Production line established at Fisherman’s Bend, prototypes and pre-production AF-4I built.

Delivered during year:
21 F-18A (25)
85 F-4 (149)
2004 Plans form on 6 Sqn plus an OCU. Pilot training in full swing, an additional 6 F-4E are added, and the OCU formed with 12 F-4E.
November, Australia informed that no more F-18 can be made available.
Last of 40 USN F-18A returned to USN post overhaul.
2 AB-4A prototypes converted. AF-4I prototype flights commence, 4 prototypes in service with 6 pre-production aircraft in manufacture by EOY.

Production line established and started to function with pre-production and initial production run aircraft.

Delivered during year:
17 F-18A (42)
53 F-4 (202)
2005 April, WWIII breaks out. 1 SQN (18) of F-4E pressed into service in March 2005. Operational at Townsville in early April.
AF-4I pressed into service in May 2005

Delivered during year:
35 F-4 (237)

Airframe Availability

So the IAF Kurnass 2000 program model was followed. The Israelis had kept the J-79 engine but they had carefully mapped out all the risks before commencing the program. This was why they entirely stripped and restored the airframes to the same configuration, then installed standardised electrical and hydraulic looms. The RAAF did the same thing. Consideration was given to getting two squadrons in service quickly with J-79 with phase 2 being to include re-engining with F414. This was not done and this proved to be a strategic error, meaning that when WWIII opened in April 2005 the Greyfalcons were not in service.

What no-one expected was the fragmented nature of F-4 airframe availability. The RAAF had assumed that the large numbers of F-4E at AMARC would easily provide the numbers they required. They were wrong and in a significant way. There were indeed large numbers of F-4 airframes at AMARC, but many were high-usage and zero-lifing these airframes was expensive. Countering this was that AMARC held F-4B, C, D, E and F models and there were no major differences in the midbody fuselage of these marques. What the RAAF did not expect were a number of other airforces offering their own F-4 where they had competitive airframe usage rates. For example, in 1975, Germany had received 10 F-4Es for training in the U.S. In the late 1990s, these were withdrawn from service after being replaced by F-4Fs, and were offered to Australia, being relatively low-stress airframes. Australia even acquired a significant number of Israeli Phantoms which had been through their Kurnass 2000 program.

What made this practical was that the RAAF had the airframes zero-lifed, so aircraft were entirely disassembled to bare fuselages and flight surfaces with most systems and components sold, sent for remanufacture or scrapped. All the large airframe components were taken to a common airframe standard, and there were few real issues involved due to the way the F-4 had been mass produced originally. Considerable strengthening was done, using a small amount of the margin by which the completed aircraft empty weight had been reduced. What eventuated was the formation of a number of small companies specialising in particular aspects of the teardown and refurbishment of particular components.

Boeing Australia discovered what the Israelis had within their own air force: every single aircraft was different in some way but few of the differences were major. Very few major aircraft components had to be discarded for this reason and none were fuselage midbodies. Most aircraft major components had normal, treatable issues relating to corrosion and long use.

The Interceptor Described

The AF-4I Greyfalcon was not in any normal sense a ‘Phantom’, being a single-seat long endurance interceptor lacking any ground attack capability. Like all aircraft, the Phantom had been subject to weight growth over its life. The F-4B had an empty weight of 12,654kg, the British F-4M 14,061kg. The AF-4I was lighter than the F-4B by nearly two tons, yet its fully loaded weight exceeded that of the heaviest Phantom, the F-4E of 27,965kg. The difference was fuel. The AF-4I was fitted with conformal belly and upper fuel tanks as well as additional internal capacity. It could also carry two very large external fuel tanks (‘drop tanks’) each capable of holding 2,300 litres of fuel. Performance and especially endurance and range profiles remain highly classified.

Armament was entirely air-to-air, and it was heavy: the 20mm gun of the F-4E was retained and wingtip rails added. These carried a single AIM-9/Python-4 WVR AAM. Two more of these could be carried on single pylons for four WVR AAM. The main armament was up to eight BVR AAM in the AIM-7 class, with a mix of AIM-7 and AMRAAM often observed. In this the Greyfalcon is both a throwback and highly practical. It is not a multirole or ‘squeeze everything out of it' concept of aircraft but a pure fighter, a type impractical in times of extended peace. This made its development simple and rapid by European or US standards, although it was very challenging for Australian industry – which was the entire point.

The Greyfalcon remains a non-stealthy aircraft. What could be done to reduce radar cross section at reasonable cost was done, and it was not much. In exercises against F-22A the AF-4I was ineffective. In exercises in its own radar coverage (including E-7 Wedgetail) against F-111C roled to Tu-22M profiles and F-22A mimicking Su-30, the AF-4I proved to be fully effective. This included against the long-range stand-off ASM carried by these platforms.

The aircraft remains extremely popular with its pilots and the Australian public, pilots describing it as “...the last plane that looked like it was made to kill people and grin about it”, as “the iron beast. It can go through a flock of Jabiru and kick plucked, cleaned and overcooked storks out the back”, as “an ugly, clumsy killer reliant on brute engine power and salvoes of high-tech weapons.” It cannot compete with 5th generation fighters one-on-one or even four-on-one, this is simply not its role. That said, many a US F-22 pilot has learned serious lessons when meeting a flight of Greyfalcons supported by E-7A Wedgetails and ground-based CEA radars. Greyfalcons quickly became the standard escort for RAAF E-7A.

It’s nickname in the RAAF is ‘Razorback”, after the biggest and oldest of the dangerous feral boars roaming the Gulf Country. Normal operational missions are, however, boring, involving tracing lazy, fuel-efficient figure eights in CAP and BARCAP stations.

An Emergency Bomber?

Little is known of the possible emergency bomber variant due to wartime information restrictions. What is known is that during 2004 at least two unusual aircraft were observed operating out of ARDU, RAAF Edinburgh. They are two-seat Phantom variants with a much larger wing than any previously seen. One photograph (taken from the ground of an aircraft overhead) exists of one of these aircraft carrying 18 500lb and 8 1000lb iron bombs. They appear to be a two-seat Greyfalcon fuselage with wings approximately 40% larger than a Greyfalcon. Nothing more is known of this program. It may be an emergency , a test or an experimental program. The RAAF merely states that ‘it retains aircraft at ARDU for a variety of reasons.’

Summary

The HDFP was intended for two primary and one tertiary purposes. The major primary purpose was to redevelop an Australian combat aircraft manufacturing capability and to do so quickly in a time of drastically worsening strategic circumstances. In this the program has been completely successful.

The second primary purpose (not publicised at the time) was to quickly and effectively provide the RAAF with the mass essential to remove the inherent brittleness of a small force dependent entirely on foreign designed-and-built aircraft. In this the program was also successful.

The tertiary purpose was to quickly provide a credible long-endurance, home defence air defence fighter to deter, and at the extremity to protect cities and major bases against Tu-22M and Su-27/30 stand-off missile attack, at less cost and time than building an integrated missile defence system over most of a continent. In this too the program was also successful.

Just before I was reading the above, I'd already formed the question "Australia faces a direct enemy to the north, yet the RAAF has but one extra fighter squadron plus the CAMD (Compulsory Atavistic Mirage Deployment) by 2005. Why does the TLW RAAF hove so closely to the historical, threatless structure?"

This provides something of an answer. I've only three comments:

1.) Greyfalcon is perhaps a bit too obscure and esoteric, based on a rare bird that would be little known to the public, and lacks an easily identifiable Australian image. If you want to capture the public zeitgeist, you don't choose a rare, small predator from the Back of Bourke/Oona Woop Woop - you aim to hit for six, and choose one of the Big Names: Kangaroo, Kookaburra, Boomerang.

Of those, Boomerang is associated with the WW2 emergency fighter and perhaps doesn't have the best prestige and Kookaburra hasn't been used and is perhaps a bit *cutesy* for a fighter, which leaves Kangaroo. Iconically Australian, associated with the CAC CA-15 'Australian Mustang' of late WW2 neverwas, tough, masculine, easy to cartoon for newspapers, immediately identifiable...I believe that a strong argument could be made for a change of name for something that is so important to Australian defence.

2.) The pace of fielding the 'new' AF-4I is probably as fast as it can be, but Australia, in a state of war, needs fighters yesterday. Getting pilots trained is also going to be a bottleneck, but there does seem to be a gap in the 2003-2004 period where there is room for a panic delivery of US F-18s or F-16s to fill the gap until the 'new' planes can be delivered

3.) The result of this is that, somehow, it does seem both logical and likely to have more than the bare minimum historical force (3, 75, 77) plus 82 and 460 Squadrons in service. Perhaps in addition to the AF-4I, a further emergency delivery of F/A-18s to reform something like No. 4 or No. 80 Squadron might be in order.

If the notion that Australia has been in an undeclared war since 1999/2000 applies - and by a glance at the Army and RAN, we can see it does there - then the RAAF should be going at a bit more than half rat power.

Simon Darkshade wrote: ↑Mon Sep 22, 2025 2:39 am Just before I was reading the above, I'd already formed the question "Australia faces a direct enemy to the north, yet the RAAF has but one extra fighter squadron plus the CAMD (Compulsory Atavistic Mirage Deployment) by 2005. Why does the TLW RAAF hove so closely to the historical, threatless structure?"

This provides something of an answer. I've only three comments:
. . .

2.) The pace of fielding the 'new' AF-4I is probably as fast as it can be, but Australia, in a state of war, needs fighters yesterday. Getting pilots trained is also going to be a bottleneck, but there does seem to be a gap in the 2003-2004 period where there is room for a panic delivery of US F-18s or F-16s to fill the gap until the 'new' planes can be delivered

3.) The result of this is that, somehow, it does seem both logical and likely to have more than the bare minimum historical force (3, 75, 77) plus 82 and 460 Squadrons in service. Perhaps in addition to the AF-4I, a further emergency delivery of F/A-18s to reform something like No. 4 or No. 80 Squadron might be in order.

If the notion that Australia has been in an undeclared war since 1999/2000 applies - and by a glance at the Army and RAN, we can see it does there - then the RAAF should be going at a bit more than half rat power.

As far as expanding the RAAF, we had a lot of discussions at the same time we were hashing out the Army, but then we just never fleshed out most of those new squadrons and what they fly. But those discussion were when I started trying to figure out AMARC numbers.

I will say that Australia did raid AMARC for F/A-18As and P-3s, amongst others in the 2000-2004 time frame. So Australia did get more F/A-18As and ran them through the same domestic SLEP/rebuild as their original batch. But they were also taking combat losses during this period, so that needs to be factored in.

Mark can explain in greater detail, but his basic premise is that Australia is looking to onshore as much as possible and build a comprehensive domestic MIC. His view is that the "emergency" kit needs to be as affordable as possible and domestically sourced as much as possible, so that the things Australia has to import can be bought in meaningful quantities and not just penny packets. And we have discussed some high end kit that would provide over-match against anything Indonesia would ever acquire. Basically classic Hornets aren't a match for the Flanker family, but they'll have to do until they can be replaced by a new Hi-Lo mix where the Lo end can be built in Australia. The AF-4Is are for building industrial competence, and hunting cruise missiles and the odd Tu-22M in places where they will never face a Flanker.

I'm not as extreme on the Atavistic angle, but I do think there are things that can be had from AMARC that would be useful. Though Mark raised the point of not wanting to bring in new platforms that Australia doesn't already have. Now I think the "buying up old transports and MPAs" run counter to that, but I appreciate they are different from jet fighters.

Also, in this timeframe we still had C-47 with radial engines in service at RAAF Edinburgh. So we already had the aircraft, pilots aircrew and maintainers and the subcontractors in and around the place to maintain them. So that's just re-expanding an existing capability, then the second stage is getting them to reserve squadrons and expanding again only in to an upgraded (but still cheap) turboprop variant. What has also already been done and so is low risk.

With losses, the RAAF also has to acquire and refurb ( including rebuilding the centrebarrels) of 42 F-18A (it's in the format-collapsed table) for attrition losses and expand each existing SQN to 20 airframes each while also leveraging that same program to build the MIC to build a modern medium bomber locally. No, they never get to the '20 airframes per squadron' level with the OCU and ARDU birds.

That F-18A acquisition is NOT insignificant! The type also faces very high losses.
Simultaneous with all of this F-22A has to be brought into service. And then 'big wing' F-15.

Meanwhile, they are also trying to expand the C-130 and P-3 inventories.....

The problem with F-18 was discussed years ago, and I was told that US demand is so high that the F-18 door closes quite quickly although second hand ones will be available for a window of a couple of years. This closure is why the F-22A door was opened.

Mirage is merely a brief band-aid stopgap which uses a sort of 'remaining dregs' capability for a brief time until something else crops up. That turns out to be Hunter because an Australian bought the entire RSAF Hunter stock and all the parts and had them sitting in Brisbane (and that's pure OTL). If you've got a couple of dozen well maintained Hunters in storage and mountains of spares, and you very much need a second tier jet for mudbashing in a COIN environment, and you just don't have enough F-18A to do the job (and using them will deepen a conflict), why would you not use them?

Cheers: Mark

The time to build a comprehensive MIC is not during a state of war. Now, admittedly, there wasn't sufficient strategic warning for it to occur beforehand, but where the thinking falls down here is the combination of

A.) A lovingly and luridly described literal state of war, albeit without some of the formalities, but necessitating such steps as conscription;
B.) Running systems, procurement and programmes on what I described above as 'half rat power', or without any sense of compelling urgency, immediacy or 'get it yesterday, any bloody how' priority.

If there are losses being taken, then that will kick up the crisis further, rather than simply simmer along - what we are looking at, from the descriptions given, is something more like The War of Attrition from 1967-70 rather than a much more sedate Konfrontasi II.

Crisis begats public and political reaction, which begats urgent pressure. The reaction to that pressure is not to just put together a plan to build or refurbish planes in Australia, as attractive as that might be to the ever-present domestic political angle, but to get fighters here and now. As of the late 1990s and early 00s, that would seem to mean earlier F/A-18s or F-16s, even if they aren't absolutely a match for Flankers.

There would be further polite screaming to Washington to get a US fighter squadron over to the NT posthaste, up to the point of invoking ANZUS.

In a circumstance where there is a war and air to air losses, the RAAF is fielding only 1 further squadron of frontline fighter aircraft, and 1 of second line interceptors. This simply doesn't hold up to logic.

We have the RAN with 3+3 DDGs, 18+3 frigates and a CVE, the Army with 20 brigades and conscription, and the RAAF with an extra squadron and a plan for some Phantoms. One of these things is not like the others.

drmarkbailey wrote: ↑Mon Sep 22, 2025 4:28 am Also, in this timeframe we still had C-47 with radial engines in service at RAAF Edinburgh. So we already had the aircraft, pilots aircrew and maintainers and the subcontractors in and around the place to maintain them. So that's just re-expanding an existing capability, then the second stage is getting them to reserve squadrons and expanding again only in to an upgraded (but still cheap) turboprop variant. What has also already been done and so is low risk.

With losses, the RAAF also has to acquire and refurb ( including rebuilding the centrebarrels) of 42 F-18A (it's in the format-collapsed table) for attrition losses and expand each existing SQN to 20 airframes each while also leveraging that same program to build the MIC to build a modern medium bomber locally. No, they never get to the '20 airframes per squadron' level with the OCU and ARDU birds.

That F-18A acquisition is NOT insignificant! The type also faces very high losses.
Simultaneous with all of this F-22A has to be brought into service. And then 'big wing' F-15.

Meanwhile, they are also trying to expand the C-130 and P-3 inventories.....

The problem with F-18 was discussed years ago, and I was told that US demand is so high that the F-18 door closes quite quickly although second hand ones will be available for a window of a couple of years. This closure is why the F-22A door was opened.

Mirage is merely a brief band-aid stopgap which uses a sort of 'remaining dregs' capability for a brief time until something else crops up. That turns out to be Hunter because an Australian bought the entire RSAF Hunter stock and all the parts and had them sitting in Brisbane (and that's pure OTL). If you've got a couple of dozen well maintained Hunters in storage and mountains of spares, and you very much need a second tier jet for mudbashing in a COIN environment, and you just don't have enough F-18A to do the job (and using them will deepen a conflict), why would you not use them?

Cheers: Mark

This came through right when I was posting the above, so I'll respond quickly:

1.) None of the punters/public are going to really give a tinker's cuss about the C-47s, but there will be a perception of lacking in firepower. Now, for the pros, the C-47s will be very useful indeed, but military procurement can never quite be divorced from the political angle, particularly in a democracy.

2.) All understandable, but we are still shifting around existing or planned assets, rather than increasing those procurements (at that point in the narrative or around the 2001-2003 period) or actually laying out a plan for a seriously mobilised RAAF

3.) Getting F-18As isn't insignificant, but the downstream effect of it does *appear* to be. F-22s and F-15s, given that they can't be delivered ready to go within 6-12 months in that 2000-2004 timeframe, are for the future; kind of similar to kicking the can of new submarines multiple decades down the line, the future is nice, but the threat (and war in this case) is here and now.

4.) Before the (narratively driven) Canberra strike, there wasn't really a serious submarine threat for Australia per se, so that P-3 inventory expansion, whilst all fine and dandy, isn't really going to be of an impact to The Big Threat. Ditto C-130s - transports and loggy aircraft are vital, but no one ever notices them or gives them credit.

5.) In that case, we'd be screaming for even F-16s. Our strategic nightmare came true + we are in a shooting war with Indonesia + the Soviets are still around and being all chummy with the Indonesian junta. That to me doesn't speak of cruise control, but somewhat greater urgency and immediacy.

6.) Once things start to kick off with Indonesia to the extent that RAAF fast jets are being destroyed by their jets, then mudbashing and COIN fall back in priorities and considerations. They don't disappear, by any stretch of the imagination, but I would argue they would need to be supplanted.

The little baby pachyderm in the room is politics, and specifically elections. In the changed circumstances here, it is very unlikely we'd see the same political issues, trends and areas of combat of the Australian body politic from 1999-2005:

a.) An undeclared war with Indonesia really changes the window for any sort of Tampa crisis in 2001, shifting that election's key issues
b.) Assuming that Beazley quits after losing in 2001, Latham taking over from Simon Crean in early December 2003 is unlikely, given an ongoing Cold War making hard leftie rhetoric as popular as smallpox at a kid's party, a lack of any Iraq War parallel rallying cause
c.) Given that the Labour leadership spill margin was 47-45 Latham vs Beazley in 2003, it is likely that Beazley is back
d.) We then get a completely different 2004 contest, absent Latham's thuggery and carry-on, and with the issue of 'How to React to the War We Are Now In'
e.) Beazley is perhaps the only ALP leader of this era with the bona fides to seriously compete with Howard on national security. Rather than seek to cut defence, or boost welfare, one avenue of attack could be "The Coalition Is Not Taking Your Defence Seriously", with air power being one part of that
f.) This isn't to say this would be a successful line of attack, just a possible one. The Coalition Government would be mugs to not take it into account, and it can be easily countered.
g.) A counter would consist of the AF-4I plan + an announcement of 4 or 5 new squadrons, to be filled by the previous aircraft and new urgent acquisitions + beg/borrowing/stealing F-16s to field 2 of those new squadrons tout suite
h.) This would cover the Short (F-16s/F-18s/any bloody thing ), Medium (AF-4I and B-4 and more F-18s) and Long Term (F-22s and more) 'Air Plan for Australia' in a manner that reflects the nature and position of the threat

General reply . . .

For the sake of discussion, I'm treating Mark's side stories as cannon. On a related note, we really ought to nail down at least the broad strokes of the 1999-2005 Indonesia-Australia conflict.
But the biggies for this discussion are:
May 2001 - Queen Charlotte: The Victor SSN Incident
January 2003 - The Vanguard River Raid

RAAF Squadron Size
Mark, prior to the decision to expand fighter squadron size to twenty, how big were the squadrons?

RAAF F/A-18 Losses
Baseline fleet of 57 F/A-18A and 18 F/A-18B.

@ peacetime attrition: X2 F/A-18A and X2 F/A-18B [Well done BTW, you should see Canadian attrition numbers ]

Post-1999 Combat losses per Mark's side stories >12 F/A-18A.

I had the RAAF down as getting 46 F/A-18A from AMARC, not 42.

AMARC Availability
I'll get into detail about this in the AMARC thread. But yea. F/A-18A availability is rather tighter than you might think.
Even early model F-16s aren't going to be as plentiful as you might think. I'll be able to give an educated guess, but there are more variables than with the surplus F/A-18A.

On a related note, it takes like two+ years to train a modern military pilot from start to finish. All the F/A-18s and F-16 in the world won't do you any good if you don't have the pilots and maintainers. So finding more trainers should be on the agenda.

Big Wing F-15
Just so everyone knows what we're talking about, in @ there was a proposal for fitting the F-15 with a "bigger" wing with more fuel that would get you F-111 type range. It's a fairly minor hand-wave to say that this variant flew as a demonstrator in the TLWverse 1990s and is not an unknown quantity. In background discussion were called it the F-15AU. In principle, the F-15AU would be the F/A-18 replacement while the F-22 would be the ultra high end.

More P-3s
MPAs don't just hunt submarines. And Australia has a lot of ocean to patrol.
But if we go with the Vanguard River Raid story, yea, there was a submarine thread. The Indonesians refitted their two Type 209 boats to fire Soviet SLCMs => SS-N-20 Sizzlers / 3M-14E Klub-S. And that's before we even talk about possible Kilos from the Soviets. Or Soviet boats just playing games in Australian waters. See Victor Incident in NZ.

ANZUS / Five Power Defense Arrangements
I agree with Simon that this is worth a longer discussion.

But I'll offer a quick take. Bear in mind that the Cold War never ended and the USSR is still a going concern.

With Timor Leste, it appears that the UN mission either never got going (Soviet veto?) or fell apart pretty quickly. Either way, what we seem to have ended up with was an Australian led coalition of the willing. That coalition seems to have been Australia, New Zealand, eventually India, and I guess some others. But I never got the impression that Malaysia or Singapore were on the ground, nor Thailand. But who else was there is worth a discussion. To what degree the US was on the ground as part of that coalition is unclear, but it seems to have been limited to logistics and possibly some special ops. But there were no US infantry battalions in TL.

If I had to guess, both the US and USSR provided guarantees to Australia and Indonesia respectively that they'd intervene if things went too far, but worked in the background to try to keep things from going too far. They'll each hold training exercises, but carefully avoid getting involved in the shooting part themselves. But somewhere along the way, the occasional air battle and specops raid became acceptable. I mean so far as we know, this is the first open fighting proxy fight since 1991. But in 1991, it looks like the USSR hung Iraq out to dry as an object lesson in what happens when you don't tow Moscow's line.

Now having said that, I think the US probably did start rotating fighter squadrons through Australia as a backstop in case Indonesia got too bold. But they probably never went further north than RAAF Base Townsville unless it was for an announced exercise. I could also see rotational C-130s helping to ease the RAAF's onshore burden. Tanker support too. Possibly engineering and construction units to speed some projects along. Oh, and I'd assume the US made sure that the RAAF had ample munitions.