The Last War: 367.

[Johnnie Lyle]

Random musing here, but it's not beyond belief that the global price of coffee will go up due to supply shortages, causing people to drink less.
Indonesia (#4 producer) is in in the process of imploding/fragmenting in a way that might be quite bloody.
It's also possible that various communist guerilla groups in Latin America will go active and cause issues there. I'm thinking FARC in Colombia (#3 producer) in particular.

“We’re not intervening in Indonesia.”

“Yes, Prime Minister, but the cost of coffee will go up and we will have to introduce rationing.”

“We’re intervening in Indonesia.”

[Johnnie Lyle]

Since that one is my contribution, let me just say that the slightly snarky tone wrote itself. WW3 is what, four weeks old by now? No Such Agency's HQ ate a missile a few weeks back, the whole agency is busier than a one-legged man at an ass-kicking contest, and contrary to peacetime, the higher-ups want their assessments the day before yesterday, so establishing a somewhat workable schedule that does not burn the staff out may be longer coming than you think it should.
I have suffered from overwork and fatigue myself more than once, so I decided that I'd turn the memories I have of those times up to eleven. Factor in the USA's general "work till you drop" ethic, especially in a war setting where your work might save and/or cost lives and you basically have what I wrote.

The only unrealistic bit I found was reduced coffee consumption postwar. That hasn’t played out post-COVID, at least in the US.

The rest makes sense, especially a national security apparatus that hasn’t twigged to things being a long war, rather than a very short one. It’s a BIG mistake, but it’s a reasonable mistake they would make.

Though, depending upon who got blown up, work-life balance may improve, or get worse.

The rest

I wrote the coffee thing on a lark. Thr muse wouldn‘t shut up. I first mentioned excessive coffee consumption in the Regierungsbunker piece and somewhere along the way, I turned it into a running gag. I also mentioned alternatives like tea and little red pills(tm). But yeah, I see your point. It was a bit much…

The interesting bit is just how many people find a cup of coffee soothing. A lot of people may well keep up their consumption because it became an acceptable stress reliever - especially if tobacco use continues to be socially unacceptable.

[Matt Wiser]

I'm back from my trip, so I can finally comment: BZ, Jan as usual, and so let's get with it.

Comrade Renko is glad to have some good news-and ComBaltFront will likely be breathing a sigh of relief-and his army commanders as well... The won't be "Relived of command and Earthly concerns." (read: liquidated)

The NSA no doubt has its share of geeks and nerds.

Spike-NLOS can be very, very dangerous.

Finding that gun is going to take some work. More recon-air and SOF behind the lines, then you find a way to take that monster out.

Point taken on trap limits as well as G-limits. The former won't be a concern if the squadron doesn't go to sea, though. As for crews, everyone takes their turn at tanker duty. Even the CO and XO. It's not just JOs, but everyone. In the Gulf, though, there's enough tankers in-theater that the A-6 squadrons don't need to configure their Fs for tanker runs, and the S-3s, with no subs to hunt, go out even on a Surface Search mission with a fuel tank and a buddy store, just in case.

Great job, and get with 368!

So where could the "new" squadron be sent? Europe? Central area or Southeast would be my SWAG. East Asia? Korea, then.

That's a very good question. NAVAIRPAC probably doesn't know. If CVW-16 can get some CarQuals, then they can spell a wing that's burned out. If not, they deploy a la a number of land-based VB, VF, and VT (Torpedo) squadrons in WW II. Korea, SW Asia, even Alaska are all possibilities.

[Poohbah]

Random musing here, but it's not beyond belief that the global price of coffee will go up due to supply shortages, causing people to drink less.
Indonesia (#4 producer) is in in the process of imploding/fragmenting in a way that might be quite bloody.
It's also possible that various communist guerilla groups in Latin America will go active and cause issues there. I'm thinking FARC in Colombia (#3 producer) in particular.

“We’re not intervening in Indonesia.”

“Yes, Prime Minister, but the cost of coffee will go up and we will have to introduce rationing.”

“We’re intervening in Indonesia.”

"The spice--er, java--must flow!"

[Simon Darkshade]

The only unrealistic bit I found was reduced coffee consumption postwar. That hasn’t played out post-COVID, at least in the US.

The rest makes sense, especially a national security apparatus that hasn’t twigged to things being a long war, rather than a very short one. It’s a BIG mistake, but it’s a reasonable mistake they would make.

Though, depending upon who got blown up, work-life balance may improve, or get worse.

The rest

I wrote the coffee thing on a lark. Thr muse wouldn‘t shut up. I first mentioned excessive coffee consumption in the Regierungsbunker piece and somewhere along the way, I turned it into a running gag. I also mentioned alternatives like tea and little red pills(tm). But yeah, I see your point. It was a bit much…

The interesting bit is just how many people find a cup of coffee soothing. A lot of people may well keep up their consumption because it became an acceptable stress reliever - especially if tobacco use continues to be socially unacceptable.

In 2005, tobacco consumption/smoking in some parts of the Western World had declined from its peak and was on the decline, but wasn’t yet socially unacceptable per se. In different countries, the first tranches of smoking limitations indoors were either only just coming into effect or hadn’t really kicked in.

Cue World War 3. There is a fair bit of stress that hits a society when the world is at war and looks only comparative moments away from nuclear armageddon. In that circumstance, I could see a lot of people who had recently quit or were cutting back might be under a tiny bit of situational pressure. I’m not just talking anyone in the services or in government, but even John Smith/Francine and Cletus in civvie street.

I can’t see smoking rates curtailing in the short term after the outbreak of WW3, let alone the same social unacceptability developing along the same lines and timeframes as @.

(Never really understood the whole cultural love affair with coffee; tried it a couple of times and it tastes quite awful to my tastebuds. I do understand that people take it for more than just the taste, but the effects; people like tea, but rarely go out on a Friday and sink 30 pints of it.)

[Jotun]

I wrote the coffee thing on a lark. Thr muse wouldn‘t shut up. I first mentioned excessive coffee consumption in the Regierungsbunker piece and somewhere along the way, I turned it into a running gag. I also mentioned alternatives like tea and little red pills(tm). But yeah, I see your point. It was a bit much…

The interesting bit is just how many people find a cup of coffee soothing. A lot of people may well keep up their consumption because it became an acceptable stress reliever - especially if tobacco use continues to be socially unacceptable.

In 2005, tobacco consumption/smoking in some parts of the Western World had declined from its peak and was on the decline, but wasn’t yet socially unacceptable per se. In different countries, the first tranches of smoking limitations indoors were either only just coming into effect or hadn’t really kicked in.

Cue World War 3. There is a fair bit of stress that hits a society when the world is at war and looks only comparative moments away from nuclear armageddon. In that circumstance, I could see a lot of people who had recently quit or were cutting back might be under a tiny bit of situational pressure. I’m not just talking anyone in the services or in government, but even John Smith/Francine and Cletus in civvie street.

I can’t see smoking rates curtailing in the short term after the outbreak of WW3, let alone the same social unacceptability developing along the same lines and timeframes as @.

(Never really understood the whole cultural love affair with coffee; tried it a couple of times and it tastes quite awful to my tastebuds. I do understand that people take it for more than just the taste, but the effects; people like tea, but rarely go out on a Friday and sink 30 pints of it.)

As I wrote, do not read more into what I wrote than a feeble attempt at humor/a running gag.
I only learned to like coffee in my twenties, and not thanks to being a radioman in the navy. I have become a coffee snob, just as I am a Single Malt Scotch and tea snob. It is quality that counts. Quality beans, quality roasting and quality preparation. The taste range of good coffee is actually just like whisky. And if prepared correctly, it really doesn't attack the stomach. My rationale for the coffee thing is that it also can be and is used as a quick and dirty way to center yourself, get a quick caffeine jolt and have a minute or six of contemplation time. And if it is cheap coffee prepared in a quick and dirty way, it becomes rancid sludge. That's about it.

[Simon Darkshade]

I never would, and my answer was largely directed at Johnnie. I’ve always appreciated your additions to TLW.

As for me, I can’t say I’m a tea snob, as I like the taste of all tea, and have never been able to stand the taste of any whisky (or whiskey or other spirits or wine for that matter) even before I started selling it as a temporary job (which is enough to turn anyone off booze and drinkers). I haven’t had enough coffee for it to attack my stomach, nor have ever really had a need/taste for caffeine so will take your word for it on those effects.

For what it’s worth, I liked the part about (some) people drinking so much coffee, and likely smoking so many ciggies, that after the world goes back to normal, they might not seek to be so wired.

Simon’s Law: In most AH, one way or another, the topic will inevitably turn to food and drink.

[Johnnie Lyle]

I wrote the coffee thing on a lark. Thr muse wouldn‘t shut up. I first mentioned excessive coffee consumption in the Regierungsbunker piece and somewhere along the way, I turned it into a running gag. I also mentioned alternatives like tea and little red pills(tm). But yeah, I see your point. It was a bit much…

The interesting bit is just how many people find a cup of coffee soothing. A lot of people may well keep up their consumption because it became an acceptable stress reliever - especially if tobacco use continues to be socially unacceptable.

In 2005, tobacco consumption/smoking in some parts of the Western World had declined from its peak and was on the decline, but wasn’t yet socially unacceptable per se. In different countries, the first tranches of smoking limitations indoors were either only just coming into effect or hadn’t really kicked in.

Cue World War 3. There is a fair bit of stress that hits a society when the world is at war and looks only comparative moments away from nuclear armageddon. In that circumstance, I could see a lot of people who had recently quit or were cutting back might be under a tiny bit of situational pressure. I’m not just talking anyone in the services or in government, but even John Smith/Francine and Cletus in civvie street.

I can’t see smoking rates curtailing in the short term after the outbreak of WW3, let alone the same social unacceptability developing along the same lines and timeframes as @.

I could see it go either way, depending upon which attitude people took:

• The war didn’t kill me, so fuck it.
• The war didn’t kill me, so I’m not going to die young and horribly.

Tobacco use during the war could also be pretty variable, depending upon things like light discipline, downtime and especially the rear area threat from Speznatz. Soldiers may not have nearly the same freedom to light up when fighting against a peer adversary as they did in the @ counter insurgency wars.

At least in the US, cigarettes were rapidly becoming a clear class distinction (lower income people smoke a lot more than middle or upper income people do), so those trends may remain in the civilian side, anyway.

(Never really understood the whole cultural love affair with coffee; tried it a couple of times and it tastes quite awful to my tastebuds. I do understand that people take it for more than just the taste, but the effects; people like tea, but rarely go out on a Friday and sink 30 pints of it.)

What kind of beer are you drinking 30 pints of?

[Simon Darkshade]

Johnnie,

Fair that it could go either way afterwards; I would note the quiet perniciousness addictiveness of smoking, making that process a fairly protracted one.

According to the CDC, 23.3% of people, or dang close enough to a quarter, were smokers in 2000 in the USA. I’d say that would spike a bit during WW3, both at home and in the military. You make a good point on the last point about smoking ‘capacity’ in a high intensity war, but the frontline forces in Germany are but a part of a mobilised force. We’re talking 800,000 regulars, 480,000 to 500,000 National Guardsmen, 600,000 USAR and 500,000 recalled retired reserve, plus the eventual conscript additions (would they be Army of the United States, incidentally?) Throw in the Navy, Marines and Air Force and there are going to be a few lads with the opportunity for a sneaky dart.

Class wise, I don’t have the knowledge to comment.

As to the question of which beers I’ve personally drank 30 pints of in a session, from memory when I used to drink that much or really at all, they would be:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_End_Draught
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coopers_Brewery
From that page: Pale Ale, Sparkling Ale, XPA
Southwark Bitter
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Bitter
https://prancingponybrewery.com.au/shop ... le-carton/
Guinness

[Johnnie Lyle]

Johnnie,

Fair that it could go either way afterwards; I would note the quiet perniciousness addictiveness of smoking, making that process a fairly protracted one.

According to the CDC, 23.3% of people, or dang close enough to a quarter, were smokers in 2000 in the USA. I’d say that would spike a bit during WW3, both at home and in the military. You make a good point on the last point about smoking ‘capacity’ in a high intensity war, but the frontline forces in Germany are but a part of a mobilised force. We’re talking 800,000 regulars, 480,000 to 500,000 National Guardsmen, 600,000 USAR and 500,000 recalled retired reserve, plus the eventual conscript additions (would they be Army of the United States, incidentally?) Throw in the Navy, Marines and Air Force and there are going to be a few lads with the opportunity for a sneaky dart.

Class wise, I don’t have the knowledge to comment.

As to the question of which beers I’ve personally drank 30 pints of in a session, from memory when I used to drink that much or really at all, they would be:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_End_Draught
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coopers_Brewery
From that page: Pale Ale, Sparkling Ale, XPA
Southwark Bitter
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Bitter
https://prancingponybrewery.com.au/shop ... le-carton/
Guinness

At least in the US, smoking indoors and outdoors near air intakes was outlawed on federal property in 1997, and the period of 2004-2008 was where most states and localities were putting smoking bans in place, so that’s the trend. By 2005, CDC reported the smoking rate was down to 20.9% overall. It was higher among those 18-29 (Gallup estimated it was 30% in 2008), but still trending down.

Aye, we have a large mobilized force, but military service is a whole lot less safe and demands a whole lot more vigilance than in past wars, especially in the European theater. We’re also seeing rear-area troops rotated to higher danger roles a lot more quickly than in past wars, and their officers and NCOs know it. It’s also going to make developing bad habits out of complacency harder, at least in the short term, just because troops are being moved more.

We also very well may see stuff like Pact forces smoking when they shouldn’t become a serious liability, and that attitude of smoking on duty = sloppy/bad troops filter down into other units.

So the military and social factors will mitigate against it, at least on duty. We may get a counterbalance of tobacco as a short term stress reducing/coping mechanism, but the overall environment is going to be less permissive of things like smoke breaks or smoking on duty than @WoT, WWII or especially WWI (which is what popularized cigarettes).

30 pints in a day is still a lot of beer, even if it’s around 4%.

[Louie]

While on the topic, Bernard, did the UK buy up the World Tea supply again on TTW?

https://blog.teabox.com/year-britain-bought-tea-world

[Simon Darkshade]

Johnnie,

Fair that it could go either way afterwards; I would note the quiet perniciousness addictiveness of smoking, making that process a fairly protracted one.

According to the CDC, 23.3% of people, or dang close enough to a quarter, were smokers in 2000 in the USA. I’d say that would spike a bit during WW3, both at home and in the military. You make a good point on the last point about smoking ‘capacity’ in a high intensity war, but the frontline forces in Germany are but a part of a mobilised force. We’re talking 800,000 regulars, 480,000 to 500,000 National Guardsmen, 600,000 USAR and 500,000 recalled retired reserve, plus the eventual conscript additions (would they be Army of the United States, incidentally?) Throw in the Navy, Marines and Air Force and there are going to be a few lads with the opportunity for a sneaky dart.

Class wise, I don’t have the knowledge to comment.

As to the question of which beers I’ve personally drank 30 pints of in a session, from memory when I used to drink that much or really at all, they would be:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_End_Draught
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coopers_Brewery
From that page: Pale Ale, Sparkling Ale, XPA
Southwark Bitter
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Bitter
https://prancingponybrewery.com.au/shop ... le-carton/
Guinness

At least in the US, smoking indoors and outdoors near air intakes was outlawed on federal property in 1997, and the period of 2004-2008 was where most states and localities were putting smoking bans in place, so that’s the trend. By 2005, CDC reported the smoking rate was down to 20.9% overall. It was higher among those 18-29 (Gallup estimated it was 30% in 2008), but still trending down.

Aye, we have a large mobilized force, but military service is a whole lot less safe and demands a whole lot more vigilance than in past wars, especially in the European theater. We’re also seeing rear-area troops rotated to higher danger roles a lot more quickly than in past wars, and their officers and NCOs know it. It’s also going to make developing bad habits out of complacency harder, at least in the short term, just because troops are being moved more.

We also very well may see stuff like Pact forces smoking when they shouldn’t become a serious liability, and that attitude of smoking on duty = sloppy/bad troops filter down into other units.

So the military and social factors will mitigate against it, at least on duty. We may get a counterbalance of tobacco as a short term stress reducing/coping mechanism, but the overall environment is going to be less permissive of things like smoke breaks or smoking on duty than @WoT, WWII or especially WWI (which is what popularized cigarettes).

30 pints in a day is still a lot of beer, even if it’s around 4%.

That’s the trend; I simply think that it goes out the window in 2005. This isn’t a war of choice, but World War 3. Plenty of people think it will only end one way.

My comment as to the mobilised size of 2.5 million is that the amount at the sticky end in Germany will be ~400,000, with not all of them on the frontline. Greece and Turkey, Scandinavia, Kuwait, Korea and Japan wouldn’t add up to 150,000 extra ‘at the front’. This means that there is a lot of men in transit, in training, or engaging in roles once charmingly known as Rear Echelon Maternal Friends. Those are going to be the area that renders your new smokers.

I don’t discount the WP possibility.

My opinion is that, all things considered, smoking would have a short term spike and be tolerated to some extent, but not in the same way as previous wars.

My point on consuming 30 pints wasn’t in relevant reference to personal experience, but that people drink very large amounts of booze not for the taste, but because it gets them ‘elephant’s trunk’. For what it’s worth, when spread out over 10 hours with a meal, it doesn’t have the same effect as one every 10 minutes.