General Discussion thread.

[James1978]

Seeking opinions / views on Latin America in TLW.

Other than the fact that the USSR is still a going concern, how does the continued Cold War affect Latin America?

Until 1999, I'm not sure how much changes other than a better armed Cuba with a non-failing economy. On the other hand, might all the Narco-Communist rebel groups out there be a little more active with Soviet backing?

Now once we hit 1999, that's when it looks like we hit a sub-POD in Latin America when Hugo Chavez takes over in Venezuela. But unlike in @, the USSR is still a going concern and the USSR under Renko likely takes full advantage of the situation. And at least in @, Venezuela's economy didn't really come off the rails until around 2011. So they had cash to buy stuff, and the military might not have gone to rot with Cuban and Soviet advisors in the mix. But are they being aggressive with their neighbors to the degree that the neighbors defense budgets reflect that?

If Gral happen to read this, I'm curious if things looks different enough in Brazil to push certain defense programs to the left - new fighter jet, attack helicopters, and the VBTP-MR Guarani in particular.
Is there anything in TLWverse from POD to early 1990s that might prevent the Brazilian defense industry from collapsing? Is there any chance Engesa could be nationalized, perhaps along with a few other companies to form a national defense conglomerate? Or do the economics of the time just not support it? What appears to be a good summary of the industry and its collapse can be found here.

[gral]

Some quick thoughts about Brazil here, will return to this thread later:

- Engesa might be too far gone to save here, even with the continued Cold War and the absence of the twin punches of contracted defence budgets and ex-Soviet equipment fire-sale. Brazil has no money to save it, and the Saudis still bought the M1 Abrams here. Not certain Engesa will go bankrupt, but still the most likely result by far, unless they manage to get some orders from Africa or Asia real quick;

- This applies to most of the Brazilian defence industry - its greatest client was Iraq, and Saddam didn't pay its debts to it after the Iran-Iraq War (Avibrás almost went under in the early 90s because of that);

- Defence programs: Chávez being armed by the Soviets and being a clear and present threat will probably mean F-X gets done in the late 90s(no idea right now which fighter would win). VBTP-MR might be sped up to the late 90s to the early 00s if the defence industry gets its house in order enough to lobby for it as a matter of helping the sector(and save the jobs associated with it); the Brazilian missile projects(MAA-1, MAR-1) might be saved, and we might be getting some of these in the late 90s;

- Biggest factor here would IMO be economic policy: would Latin America go on the liberalizing spree it went on during the 90s in our timeline? Would we get Mercosul/Mercosur here?

[gral]

- Defence programs: Chávez being armed by the Soviets and being a clear and present threat will probably mean F-X gets done in the late 90s(no idea right now which fighter would win). VBTP-MR might be sped up to the late 90s to the early 00s if the defence industry gets its house in order enough to lobby for it as a matter of helping the sector(and save the jobs associated with it); the Brazilian missile projects(MAA-1, MAR-1) might be saved, and we might be getting some of these in the late 90s;

More on this(I'm assuming in this post Chavista Venezuela is seen as enough of a threat in the mid-to-late-90s to make Brazilian politicians spend more money in Defence than what is absolutely needed to avoid complete obsolescence of the Brazilian Armed Forces, which is the usual historical policy for Brazil.*):

Guarani will almost certainly be (somewhat) sped up - by how much, it depends on money available. I don't see it starting earlier than 1995, though(and by 1997-1998 would be more likely than that, given the timing of Brazil's military acquisitions in our timeline). If the program starts by 1997-8, prototypes would have been delivered in 2004-5, assuming a similar progression to our timeline's.

F-X winner would depend on politics, i.e., how close Brazil is to to the USA in 1999-2001. Competitors would have been F-16, F-18, Gripen, Mirage 2000, Eurofighter(it's very unlikely we would have gotten submissions for MiG-29 and Su-27 variants here). In our timeline(late 2000s to mid-2010s), we got F/A-18E, Rafale and Gripen as finalists(Eurofighter was dropped mainly because the multinational origin would mean more difficulties in getting technology transfers - I expect this to be a concern in the TLW TL as well).

In OTL, Brazil soured on F/A-18E after it was revealed the NSA was looking at our president's e-mails; the French lobbied hard for Rafale, but the Air Force didn't want a repeat of their experience with the stop-gap Mirage 2000s we bought; Gripen did have some very nice industrial offsets and no big political onus so it got the contract. Here, I expect the contract to go to either go to Mirage or Hornet(C/D), depending on whether Brazil is close to the USA at the moment, and whether the French offer(as they would do in the late 2000s) to transfer the Mirage 2000 production line to Brazil(they offered to sell it to India as well, later). My guess at the moment is we would have gotten Hornets. Big advantage with getting the F-18 is prompt delivery(it was a big advantage with the F/A-18E in OTL as well), so assuming Hornet wins, they would be in service with FAB by the time the balloon goes up.

Now, Brazilian missiles(MAA-1 short range AAM, MAR-1 ARM, MSS-1.2 ATGM). With more money, MAA-1A enters service in the late 1990s, being roughly equivalent to the AIM-9L. This means that Brazil won't buy a stop-gap batch of Python 3s to replace their AIM-9Bs in 2001. It also means MAA-1A is obsolescent as it enters service, so development of the MAA-1B will begin soon after that. Best I could get on MAA-1B was it wasn't as capable as Python 4, but it was an advance in capability.

The MAR-1 ARM started development in 1997 in OTL, and it had a big stumbling block on its development in 1999 when the USA blocked the sale of equipment needed for development, as 'it is not America's interest to introduce anti-radiation weapons in the region'. If Venezuela gets Su-30s and Kh-31 missiles in the late 90s, that ceases to be a problem, and speeds up development by some 5-7 years. This means by the time the war starts, test firings have been in progress at the very least, although the missile isn't probably in service yet.

MSS-1.2 ATGM. Now the story of this one is long and complicated. Originally an OTO-Melara project(MAF), Engesa started development of a Brazilian version. In the late 80s, Engesa spun-off a subsidiary which would be responsible for that project, and the subsidiary would go down with Engesa in 1991. Development was taken over by the Army in 1991, and the Army contracted Mectron(which was also responsible for both missiles above), with a contract for a prototype batch being signed in 1996, with missiles being delivered on the first half of 1999. The missile continued in development, being almost completely redesigned, until 2005, with a contract being signed for another prototype batch in 2008. This batch was delivered in 2013-4, and tests showed issues(especially with the laser receptor), and the missile wasn't accepted. Mectron, by then having been acquired by Odebrecht, continued the development, but from 2015 on corruption scandals rocked Odebrecht, which meant the program languished. Former Mectron employees founded SIATT, which took over development in 2017. Testing resumed in 2018, progressing well. By 2022, the main issue was setting up a production line. The UAE Edge Group bought 50% of SIATT in 2023, and first deliveries were soon after. The MSS-1.2 MAX was accepted into service in 2024, some 42 years after MAF's development started at Oto-Melara.

Here, I expect things to change from 1996 on. With the urgency caused by Chavista Venezuela, the MSS-1.2 will be put into service earlier, but it will be closer to the original MAF than the MSS-1.2 MAX is(and somewhat less capable, especially regarding guidance). My guess is deliveries of the prototype batch would be around 2001, with development being finished around 2003 and series production coming around 2004. It's quite possible Brazil buys some ATGMs as a stop-gap.

*Avibras and Mectron would be the greatest winners in this scenario. It would also affect Navy acquisitions, which means that, in this case the OOB i did for the Brazilian Navy would have to be changed.

EDIT: Just saw Chávez took power in 1999, not 1996 as I was wrongly remembering. This shifts the timetables somewhat.

The VBTP-MR program would start around 2001, being still in design phase when the war begins(and the design will factor in lessons of the war). F-X's timeline isn't changed, but F/A-18C is more likely to be the winner. MAA-1A will enter service at around 2001(with FAB possibly buying something off-the-shelf by 1999-2000 to fill the gap - quite likely they buy the 100 Python 3s they bought in 2001). MAR-1's timeline wouldn't change from what I posted, but I think the USA would offer earlier versions of the AGM-88 to Brazil. MSS 1.2 MAX won't be in service by 2004(but will probably be by 2006-7). The Armed Forces will certainly look for stop-gaps, may as well be the RBS-56 BILL the Brazilian Marines acquired in... 2000, I think, in our timeline. Will have to have a look at what is available for possible Navy acquisitions.