...Saying The Quiet Part Out Loud...

[Micael]

Is this real?
We're not yet in February 2023.

Something odd about the language here that's not quite right for a senior serving officer in the US.
Certainly not like what I've encountered in the past.

More like a parody.

Taking such responsibility implies he's gambling on getting his way or making a 'meal ticket' out of being blamed for failure.

A very exposed position for someone who ought to have more political sense.

Gut feelings cut no ice in the military.

It was affirmed as real by some official statements.

[Micael]

And speaking of China:

BREAKING: The United States government has detected and is tracking a high altitude surveillance balloon that is over the continental United States right now that the US government to include NORAD continues to track and monitor it closely, balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground, says Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder.

The U.S. thinks it's a high-altitude balloon from China that entered domestic airspace a few days ago, according to a senior defense official.

This is not the first time a surveillance balloon has come into domestic airspace. It is appearing to "hangout for a longer period" than in previous instances, the senior defense official said.

The U.S. will not say the exact altitude, but it is above where civilian air traffic is active, a senior defense official said.

The U.S. has used manned military aircraft, including F-22s, to observe the balloon, a senior defense official said.

In previous instances, Chinese high-altitude balloons did not loiter for long over the continental U.S., a senior defense official said.

I wouldn't characterize the payload on this as "revolutionary," a senior defense official said. What is different is that it is loitering over the U.S. for a prolonged period.

[Micael]

Here’s the spy balloon:

[MikeKozlowski]

And speaking of China:

BREAKING: The United States government has detected and is tracking a high altitude surveillance balloon that is over the continental United States right now that the US government to include NORAD continues to track and monitor it closely, balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground, says Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder.

The U.S. thinks it's a high-altitude balloon from China that entered domestic airspace a few days ago, according to a senior defense official.

This is not the first time a surveillance balloon has come into domestic airspace. It is appearing to "hangout for a longer period" than in previous instances, the senior defense official said.

The U.S. will not say the exact altitude, but it is above where civilian air traffic is active, a senior defense official said.

The U.S. has used manned military aircraft, including F-22s, to observe the balloon, a senior defense official said.

In previous instances, Chinese high-altitude balloons did not loiter for long over the continental U.S., a senior defense official said.

I wouldn't characterize the payload on this as "revolutionary," a senior defense official said. What is different is that it is loitering over the U.S. for a prolonged period.

....Bring the goddamned thing down as a matter of principle.

Mike

[Micael]

And speaking of China:

BREAKING: The United States government has detected and is tracking a high altitude surveillance balloon that is over the continental United States right now that the US government to include NORAD continues to track and monitor it closely, balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground, says Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder.

The U.S. thinks it's a high-altitude balloon from China that entered domestic airspace a few days ago, according to a senior defense official.

This is not the first time a surveillance balloon has come into domestic airspace. It is appearing to "hangout for a longer period" than in previous instances, the senior defense official said.

The U.S. will not say the exact altitude, but it is above where civilian air traffic is active, a senior defense official said.

The U.S. has used manned military aircraft, including F-22s, to observe the balloon, a senior defense official said.

In previous instances, Chinese high-altitude balloons did not loiter for long over the continental U.S., a senior defense official said.

I wouldn't characterize the payload on this as "revolutionary," a senior defense official said. What is different is that it is loitering over the U.S. for a prolonged period.

....Bring the goddamned thing down as a matter of principle.

Mike

The reporting is that options for that was presented to Biden by the military, but they recommended against it as they were concerned of damage/injuries on the ground is executed.

[MikeKozlowski]

And speaking of China:

....Bring the goddamned thing down as a matter of principle.

Mike

The reporting is that options for that was presented to Biden by the military, but they recommended against it as they were concerned of damage/injuries on the ground is executed.

....I know, and you're right, and I probably would have made the same call. Not happy about it, though.

Mike

[Johnnie Lyle]

....Bring the goddamned thing down as a matter of principle.

Mike

The reporting is that options for that was presented to Biden by the military, but they recommended against it as they were concerned of damage/injuries on the ground is executed.

....I know, and you're right, and I probably would have made the same call. Not happy about it, though.

Mike

There’s a lot of open space over the US, and especially open water. If we’re concerned about collateral damage, blast the damn thing as soon as it’s over a lake or sizable body of water.

[Poohbah]

The reporting is that options for that was presented to Biden by the military, but they recommended against it as they were concerned of damage/injuries on the ground is executed.

....I know, and you're right, and I probably would have made the same call. Not happy about it, though.

Mike

There’s a lot of open space over the US, and especially open water. If we’re concerned about collateral damage, blast the damn thing as soon as it’s over a lake or sizable body of water.

And the next commercial flight from China gets intercepted at the ADIZ boundary, gets directed to land at a specific airfield, and the plane gets disassembled. All the way down per the IPB manual. Any undocumented pieces get seized. All luggage gets inspected by hand, contents thrown into a big pile. All passengers get a strip and cavity search.

And we don't put anything back together. That's China's job.

[Micael]

They sent one up north too.

NORAD and the Canadian DoD has Confirmed that a 2nd Balloon is currently being tracked somewhere over Canada.

[jemhouston]

Thumb in the eye

[MikeKozlowski]

Just noticed this, per the WSJ's coverage:

Two Air Force F-22 fighters scrambled from Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada to Montana, where the balloon was observed, before the administration decided not to shoot it down.

The closest interceptors to a datum point in Montana were in Nevada?

And there were cocked-and-locked Raptors on alert at Nellis? If they were there for RED FLAG (All caps, TWO words, dammit) they might have had live 20mm aboard, but not live -9s or -120s.

This bothers me.

And I'm only on my second cup of coffee.

Mike

[Micael]

Just noticed this, per the WSJ's coverage:

Two Air Force F-22 fighters scrambled from Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada to Montana, where the balloon was observed, before the administration decided not to shoot it down.

The closest interceptors to a datum point in Montana were in Nevada?

And there were cocked-and-locked Raptors on alert at Nellis? If they were there for RED FLAG (All caps, TWO words, dammit) they might have had live 20mm aboard, but not live -9s or -120s.

This bothers me.

And I'm only on my second cup of coffee.

Mike

Maybe they took the time to load them up before sending them up to do the intercept? I presume that there’s plenty of missiles sitting around at Nellis.

[MikeKozlowski]

Just noticed this, per the WSJ's coverage:

Two Air Force F-22 fighters scrambled from Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada to Montana, where the balloon was observed, before the administration decided not to shoot it down.

The closest interceptors to a datum point in Montana were in Nevada?

And there were cocked-and-locked Raptors on alert at Nellis? If they were there for RED FLAG (All caps, TWO words, dammit) they might have had live 20mm aboard, but not live -9s or -120s.

This bothers me.

And I'm only on my second cup of coffee.

Mike

Maybe they took the time to load them up before sending them up to do the intercept? I presume that there’s plenty of missiles sitting around at Nellis.

Micael,

DEFINITELY lots of ammo there - trust me on this. But even if somebody threw away the book, it would still take a few hours if for no other reason than they wouldn't keep fully assembled missiles on hand, and then they need to check them out, then take them the 4.25 miles from the bomb dump to the ramp, and then load them.

Mike

[Micael]

Just noticed this, per the WSJ's coverage:



The closest interceptors to a datum point in Montana were in Nevada?

And there were cocked-and-locked Raptors on alert at Nellis? If they were there for RED FLAG (All caps, TWO words, dammit) they might have had live 20mm aboard, but not live -9s or -120s.

This bothers me.

And I'm only on my second cup of coffee.

Mike

Maybe they took the time to load them up before sending them up to do the intercept? I presume that there’s plenty of missiles sitting around at Nellis.

Micael,

DEFINITELY lots of ammo there - trust me on this. But even if somebody threw away the book, it would still take a few hours if for no other reason than they wouldn't keep fully assembled missiles on hand, and then they need to check them out, then take them the 4.25 miles from the bomb dump to the ramp, and then load them.

Mike

Hmm, I don’t know how it is at Nellis but wouldn’t it be an alert site for F-15s/F-16s? So couldn’t you in theory strip missiles from those birds and transfer them to the F-22s faster than that?

Also, saw this joke:

NORAD/NORTHCOM watch officer: "Oh hey sir you're back early."

NORTHCOM Commander: "Balloon's haunted."

Watch: "What?"

NORTHCOM COMMANDER: *Racks shotgun and climbs aboard C-17* "Balloon's haunted."

[MikeKozlowski]

Also, saw this joke:
NORAD/NORTHCOM watch officer: "Oh hey sir you're back early."

NORTHCOM Commander: "Balloon's haunted."

Watch: "What?"

NORTHCOM COMMANDER: *Racks shotgun and climbs aboard C-17* "Balloon's haunted."

Now, as far as swapping weapons from one a/c to another - possible but unlikely because of the chance of having a missile go bad during the download, transport, or upload.

Mike

[Belushi TD]

As I posted in the other thread on this topic...

F-35 with vectored thrust to pop the balloon. Wait until its over unpopulated farmland (not grazing land, farmland, since its, you know, winter). Then pop the damn thing. Pick up the chunks. Write the farmer a check.

Belushi TD

[James1978]

As I posted in the other thread on this topic...

F-35 with vectored thrust to pop the balloon. Wait until its over unpopulated farmland (not grazing land, farmland, since its, you know, winter). Then pop the damn thing. Pick up the chunks. Write the farmer a check.

I don't think F-35s have thrust vectoring . . .

[Belushi TD]

They don't?

*franticly googles*

Well, bugger me sideways.

Seems I need to brush up on how the F-35 works.

My apologies, everyone.

Belushi TD

[Calder]

Given the size of the balloon is described as big as 3 city buses this is almost certainly based on a high-altitude weather balloon. Those can easily reach 100,000+ feet. They are incredibly delicate. Just touching them without wearing special gloves can destroy them. The problem is that they fly far higher than any aircraft we have in service. I don't know but I strongly suspect given the nature of the material that it is going to have a very small radar cross-section and little to no heat signature.

I expect most of its value over a spy satellite is that we can track their satellites and thus cover\don't transmit\don't use when the satellite is overhead. Now that we know about it we can take the same measures.

I don't believe for a second that the military is worried about it hitting the ground. About 50 meteorites hit the grown every single day. The vast majority of the ground is empty, particularly over Montana. They haven't shot it down because the effort is both difficult\expensive and the value the Chinese are getting out of it now that we know about it is fairly small. If we miss the press will have a field day so in the end it just isn't worth it.

[Pdf27]

But even if somebody threw away the book, it would still take a few hours if for no other reason than they wouldn't keep fully assembled missiles on hand, and then they need to check them out, then take them the 4.25 miles from the bomb dump to the ramp, and then load them.

It's a balloon, from a state we aren't at war with. That means it's going nowhere fast, and indeed turning up fast. Saying that F-22s were "scrambled" is journalese for "they took off".
And the idea that you genuinely scramble fighters at extremely short notice to go and take a look at an incoming weather balloon of unknown origin which has just come over from Canada and only decide after doing so that you aren't going to shoot it down is just risible.