The future for the US Military (2030s-2040s)

[MKSheppard]

I don't think that a lot of things are going to happen in the 2020s now.

DOD just has too much on their plate now:

GBSD / Sentinel ICBM for Minuteman Replacement
Columbia SSBNs for Ohio Replacement
Ford CVNs for Nimitz Replacements
Constellation FFGs
B-21 Raiders

And we're coming off a whole clutch of failed programs:

Zumwalts
Both Versions of LCS

As well as some very expensive "interim" programs.

DDG-51 Flight III or Flight IV

I think a big reason for all the "malaise" is going to be the F-35 program.

The big elephant in the room has entered -- the War in Ukraine.

A single Squadron of F-35s could kill everything in two weeks. There's youtube footage ten years old of early F-35 EO/IR DAS systems on a test flight seeing a M1 Abrams firing it's main gun on a range below, and alerting the pilot to this.

That, among other things; is why I think we're going to see a fallow 2020s/2030s for future aircraft platforms; with F-35 cleaning up during that decade.

Why buy a single NGAD or USN F/X for $300 million when you can buy three Block XI F-35s for the same price since Ukraine has also reminded everyone of the importance of having a deep bench of airframes ready to soak up combat losses.

Then there's the changing demographics of congress.

27% of Senators are Generation X/Millennials
50% of Representatives are Generation X/Millennials

For us, we've seen it all. Attack ships on fire off Orion's Arm, Tannhauser gate, etc.

We remember the late 1990s and early 2000s, when F-35 was gonna be built by the thousands to replace the F-16, F-15, F-14, F-18, A-10, AV-8, etc.

We were in high school when the JSF Program Office was created; and we were in our late 30s or early 40s when F-35 finally went operational.

We are also much more technically proficient and have access to more information than previous generations. We know how to download hundred plus page PDFs and keyword search in them in moments.

Defense briefers are going to find that Millennials are harder to "snowjob" than previous generations with fancy slides.

Happy Budgeting...

[Johnnie Lyle]

We have bigger problems - debt servicing.

[Nightwatch2]

We have bigger problems - debt servicing.

THAT has and will bankrupt the budget

[Johnnie Lyle]

We have bigger problems - debt servicing.

THAT has and will bankrupt the budget

Especially if we have to refinance with higher rates than when we borrowed.

[Rocket J Squrriel]

Here's a silly question.... I'm not saying they should do it but do you think we'll have a congress and/or president that will repudiate the debt?

[MikeKozlowski]

Here's a silly question.... I'm not saying they should do it but do you think we'll have a congress and/or president that will repudiate the debt?

...As I understand it, that would pretty much kick the global economy in the nuts. Repeatedly.

At the VERY least, people would stop buying our debt, which means the Federal checkbook would be restricted to what comes in through taxes and fees every months. If one assumes consistent behavior by our political class, it will be four hundred and thirty something guys and gals screaming, "Cut everything except MY programs!" That will be concurrent with a spot of bother as those who live off Federal largesse suddenly discover the next check ain't coming in.

Of course, since the rest of the world would then have excellent reason to not trust us or the dollar any more, they'd dump the dollar and find a new global reserve currency. The PRC would happily offer to take up the slack.

Stocks would crash through the floor, hit bottom, and keep digging. Quite likely overseas branches and facilities of US companies will be nationalized or otherwise put under local control, since they will no longer be sure they'll be paying their employees.

I would guess the Feds - who need money like a junkie needs hid fix - will do their damnedest to confiscate a good chunk of every single retirement account. (It's happened overseas.)

Mike

[Sukhoiman]

The Yuan will never work as a world reserve currency in the foreseeable future.

PRC does not have a convertible capital account unlike the US (and the PRC does that for a reason)...which affects its final liquidity.

A US default (unlikely as it still is, but who knows) will just do serious damage to the world economy (along with its own) and there will be significant readjusting but it will not be a grand reset.

The US will more likely come to its senses and do severe entitlement reform by the end of this decade that will make Macron's social security reforms seem like a walk in the park.

The new program to replace it hopefully will be much more contribution driven rather than entitlement driven.

At some point big ugly govt needs to be shed. This debt driven govt obesity is not sustainable.

[jemhouston]

Sukhoiman I wish you were correct, but I doubt it. Too many in DC think they can make the tides do what they want, instead of knowing tides do what they want. I think the reason is, since we're too stupid to vote for them, we can't know what's good for us. Problem is what they think is good for us got us into this situation in the first place.

Things will get very ugly in the US and nobody will like what happens.

[Rocket J Squrriel]

Here's a silly question.... I'm not saying they should do it but do you think we'll have a congress and/or president that will repudiate the debt?

...As I understand it, that would pretty much kick the global economy in the nuts. Repeatedly.

At the VERY least, people would stop buying our debt, which means the Federal checkbook would be restricted to what comes in through taxes and fees every months. If one assumes consistent behavior by our political class, it will be four hundred and thirty something guys and gals screaming, "Cut everything except MY programs!" That will be concurrent with a spot of bother as those who live off Federal largesse suddenly discover the next check ain't coming in.

Of course, since the rest of the world would then have excellent reason to not trust us or the dollar any more, they'd dump the dollar and find a new global reserve currency. The PRC would happily offer to take up the slack.

Stocks would crash through the floor, hit bottom, and keep digging. Quite likely overseas branches and facilities of US companies will be nationalized or otherwise put under local control, since they will no longer be sure they'll be paying their employees.

I would guess the Feds - who need money like a junkie needs hid fix - will do their damnedest to confiscate a good chunk of every single retirement account. (It's happened overseas.)

Mike

Yep, it would be a very bad and stupid thing to do.

That is why I'm afraid the idiots, present & future, in DC might try it.

[gtg947h]

I would guess the Feds - who need money like a junkie needs hid fix - will do their damnedest to confiscate a good chunk of every single retirement account. (It's happened overseas.)

I give it 50-50 odds that regardless of default status, they try that under color of "fairness" before I reach retirement age (I doubt I'll ever actually be able to).

[Sukhoiman]

Sukhoiman I wish you were correct, but I doubt it. Too many in DC think they can make the tides do what they want, instead of knowing tides do what they want. I think the reason is, since we're too stupid to vote for them, we can't know what's good for us. Problem is what they think is good for us got us into this situation in the first place.

Things will get very ugly in the US and nobody will like what happens.

Reality will literally force their hand in the end, no matter who is running the ship at the time but cant kick the can no more.

I still find that more likely than the US defaulting...and setting into motion what they cannot model and predict at all.

The pain and fear of the latter will be far greater on DC cabal + chosen oligarchs than entitlement and spending reform (which is a bounded known solution).

If its anything I know about their habit.... they will always opt for the less painful option to them.